India’s Covid R value steady at 0.88, but many states see rise in infection rates

Unlike the past few weeks when most high-burden states showed downward trends, many of them saw an increase in their R values this week.

A woman is tested for Covid-19 in Bengaluru | Representational image | PTI file photo

New Delhi: After weeks of continuous decline, India’s Covid-19 R value — a key parameter to measure the rate of the spread an infection — remained steady at 0.88 this week, even as several high-burden states saw an upward trend in their infection rates.

R value represents the number of people one patient can infect. A number below 1 means the number of active cases is declining.

India’s R had decreased last week to the lowest ever value of 0.88.

“Good news is that most of the top states (in terms of active case numbers) have managed to decrease R to values lower than 1. These include Kerala and West Bengal, both of which had R over 1 last week,” Sitabhra Sinha, researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, told ThePrint.

However, Delhi continues to have a high R, with the value having increased marginally in the last week from 1.13 to 1.14. Delhi is witnessing a Covid surge with a fresh spurt of infections pushing up active cases.

States recording increase in R

Maharashtra has maintained its R below 1, but the value rose from last week’s 0.88 to 0.90 this week.

Unlike the past few weeks when most high-burden states showed downward trends, several of them saw an increase in their R values this week.

“Rajasthan and Haryana are the new entrants into the top states’ list with both having R more than 1,” Sinha said.

With a R over 1 for over a month since 11 September, Rajasthan had stayed in the list of 13 worst-affected states. However, the state’s R value dipped to 0.83 last week, only to shoot up again to 1.12 this week.

Haryana too has made an entry into the worst-affected states’ list. Between 8 and 19 October, the state is estimated to have kept its R value below 1. However, Sinha estimates that Haryana’s R rose to 1.16 — the highest among the top 13 — since 25 October.

Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha also saw a small rise in their R values, though all are below 1.

For Telangana, the value rose from 0.83 to 0.94 this week, while Andhra Pradesh saw the figure go up from 0.79 to 0.80. The R value in Chhattisgarh and Odisha increased from 0.90 and 0.82 last week to 0.97 and 0.90, respectively.

States where R declined

Despite the increase in most high-burden states, the fact that states like Kerala, Karnataka and West Bengal saw a decline in R value seems to have kept India’s overall R from rising.

Kerala, the state with the second highest number of active cases, saw its R drop below 1. Between 4 September and 1 October, the state had seen high values of R. Around 20 October, the value had dipped to 0.94, but rose to 1.07 again last week. This week, the R for Kerala dropped to 0.90.

West Bengal too saw a decline in its R value from 1.06 last week to 0.98 this week.

Karnataka, the state with the third highest number of active cases, saw its R value decrease from 0.74 to 0.55 this week — the lowest now among the worst performing states.

Major metros

Apart from Delhi, Kolkata and Pune also have R above 1 now.

The R value for Kolkata rose from 0.95 last week to 1.02 while Pune’s increased from 0.92 to 1.06.

Mumbai, which had R close to 1 last week, now has the value at 0.91. Meanwhile, Bengaluru saw a sharp decline in R from 0.77 to 0.38 this week.