New Delhi: Pakistan’s Economic Survey, released Thursday, saw the government hail stability. But Pakistanis are sceptical.
The country’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb described Pakistan as an economy moving “from stability to growth,” highlighting lower deficits, stronger foreign exchange reserves and a declining debt-to-GDP ratio.
But economists, opposition politicians, journalists and social media commentators appear far less enthusiastic. They are dissecting the document, pointing to figures they argued painted a more troubling picture of life for ordinary Pakistanis.
The survey indicated that poverty and unemployment grew sharply. Pakistan’s unemployment rate rose to 7.1 per cent in Fiscal Year 2025-2026 from an earlier 6.3 per cent. During the same time, the number of unemployed persons rose to 5.9 million from 4.5 million.
One of the starkest findings was the resurgence of poverty. The proportion of people living below the poverty line rose to 28.9 per cent in 2024–25 compared to 21.9 per cent in 2018-19, undoing decades of progress and lifting poverty to its highest level since before 2019. At the provincial level, poverty increased across all major provinces.
“The sharp reversal, from a historic low of 21.9 per cent in 2018-19, marks one of the most significant welfare setbacks in the country’s recent history,” The News Pakistan wrote in its report.
‘Nothing in the upcoming budget’
On social media, many also pointed out what they viewed as a disconnect between official messaging and everyday realities.
Omar Ayub Khan, a senior PTI leader, described the report as evidence of economic underperformance, arguing that Pakistan remained trapped in a cycle of low growth and persistent inflation.
“There is nothing in the upcoming budget for the people of Pakistan except further misery, corruption and more inflation. The Economic Survey launched yesterday by the installed PMLN regime is basically a report card documenting the regime’s failure over the past 5 years. Every sector has underperformed,” he wrote on X.
Former finance minister Asad Umar focused on growth figures, arguing that economic expansion under the current administration had lagged behind population growth over the past several years.
“Pakistan economic survey issued. Bottom line: it confirms that 4 years of shehbaz sharif as PM have produced the lowest 4 year growth in Pakistan history of 2.3% per annum. Lower than even population growth,” he wrote.
Others turned to satire.
Political analyst Tahir Naeem Malik noted that the word “stability” appeared more than 100 times in the survey’s hundreds of pages, joking that the government had achieved a “century” of stability even as many economic indicators remained under pressure.
Some economists questioned whether the survey captured the full extent of recent challenges. Because much of the underlying data covers only part of the fiscal year, critics argued that subsequent regional tensions, fluctuations in oil prices and broader geopolitical developments may not yet be fully reflected in the report.
Pakistani entrepreneur Asad Ali Shah called it ‘an irrelevant’ survey.
“The economy it describes disappeared months ago. Much of the story in the Survey is based on data only up to March 31. That means it will barely capture the US–Iran war, the oil and freight shock, or May’s inflation surge to 11.66% — yet it will be presented as Pakistan’s annual economic scorecard, one day before the federal budget,” he said, adding that the survey is not deception by design, but obsolescence by inertia.
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‘Govt deserves credit for stabilising economy’
Government officials, however, defended their assessment. Aurangzeb acknowledged that growth targets had been missed but argued that Pakistan had demonstrated resilience amid multiple external shocks. He maintained that reforms supported by the International Monetary Fund and tighter fiscal management were laying the foundation for more sustainable growth, Dawn reported.
The debate reflects a broader divide in Pakistan’s economic discourse.
Editorials too weighed in.
“The government deserves credit for stabilising an economy under pressure by floods, rising energy prices and trade uncertainty amid regional conflict. However, there is another story behind these numbers, and it is a harder one. Stabilisation, though welcome, is not transformational. The distance between the two is precisely where Pakistan’s future hangs in the balance,” Dawn wrote. There was, however, a word of caution.
“The Economic Survey tells the story of a country that has survived another difficult year. The more important story of whether Pakistan can finally break the cycle is waiting to be written,” it added.
An editorial in Express Tribune echoed similar concerns, stating that the document, as a prelude to the upcoming budget, underscores the consolidated recovery and confidence of the government.
“It, nonetheless, highlights ongoing tariff uncertainties prior to securing a favourable deal with the US – crucial for making exports competitive,” it said.
(Edited by Saptak Datta)