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Long-range missiles, military pact and a tweet: South China Sea’s new strategic reality

China carries out anti-ship ballistic missile tests, as Philippines asks US for help against growing Chinese naval aggression in the disputed waters.

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Power game over South China Sea

Three recent but unrelated developments reflect some fundamental shifts in the balance of power in South China Sea.

The first incident involves China’s testing of “anti-ship ballistic missiles” in the South China Sea. The second is Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte evoking the Philippines-US Mutual Defence Pact. Third is the recent push by US President Donald Trump, forcing other global powers to contribute in safeguarding the key maritime choke points.

China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles

Last month, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Rocket Force undertook “anti-ship ballistic missile” tests in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. According to analysts, China has tested two long-range missiles, DF-21D and DF-26.

DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” is said to have a range of 1,500 km while DF-26 has a much longer range of 4,000 km.

In a column for the South China Morning Post, strategic analyst Ankit Panda argues that the presence of these missiles in China’s arsenal would work towards undermining US’ naval dominance in the South China Sea.

These missiles give China the ability to target American naval bases in the region such as the one at Guam.

“The concept of victory then is simple for the PLA: win without fighting by promising the US that any clash would be far too costly with uncertain benefits,” writes Panda.

Duterte evokes the US-Philippines military pact

In a recent interview, Duterte “challenged” the US to send its Seventh Naval Fleet to defend Philippines against growing Chinese naval aggression in the disputed waters of South China Sea.

Duterte said that the US should send its “Seventh Naval Fleet” – thus evoking the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and the island nation.

This comes after a Chinese ship rammed into a Philippines’ fishing boat last month and left several Filipino fishers dead.

It remains unclear whether Duturte was making an off-the-cuff remark or asking for a serious demand. Nevertheless, it highlights a significant development in South East Asia.

China’s increasing dominance over the South China Sea is forcing smaller powers to actually talk about security guarantees from US.

Following the Second World War, the US had signed mutual defence agreements with several Asian powers such as Japan, South Korea and Philippines. These defense agreements effectively brought these countries under US’ security umbrella and turned them into American allies.

Growing Chinese assertiveness is heightening insecurity among smaller powers in South China Sea. Meanwhile, an unorthodox US government is further exacerbating their insecurities – thus forcing them to check American security commitments.

Trump demands that other powers should also be guarding maritime choke points

Recently, the Trump administration has been pushing its allies and partners to contribute to guarding world’s key maritime choke points.

Safeguarding these choke points is essential for free movement of goods and people across the globe

Since the end of the Second World War, America has guarded all of world’s nine-key maritime choke points. And its ability to do so was seen as a prominent marker of its dominant military position across the globe.

One of the most important maritime choke points lie in South China Sea at the Strait of Malacca. More than $5 trillion of goods move through this choke point every year.

While China’s presence in South China Sea has grown over the past decade, the Strait of Malacca continued to be guarded by the US Navy.

But Trump’s recent comments have brought the American commitment into question.

Emergence of a new strategic reality in South China Sea

Together, these three developments reflect a fundamental shift in South China Sea and the Asian order at-large.

With the rise of Chinese naval capabilities, US’ naval dominance in South China Sea is rapidly eroding. In turn, an aggressive China is finally forcing US’ allies to test American commitment to come to their rescue.

And contrary to assuaging its South East Asian allies, the US is increasingly signalling its reluctance in coming to their rescue.

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