New Delhi: The first week of August has started with an overall rainfall deficit of about 12 per cent, with states like Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh clocking the highest deficit ranging between 20 per cent and 55 per cent. Weathermen have, however, warned that this gap is expected to widen in the coming weeks, with the forecast of a ‘break’ period after 10 August.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) data shows that in the first week of August — between 1 and 4 August — the agriculture belt of the country, including Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab, recorded a rainfall deficit.
UP recorded a 33 per cent deficit, Punjab a 30 per cent deficit, and Haryana recorded a rainfall deficit of 54 per cent. States including Delhi and Himachal Pradesh also stood in the red zone, with a shortfall of 33 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively.
Data shows that the cumulative seasonal rainfall recording of these states — from 1 June to 5 August — now stands at a deficit of 24 per cent for UP, 33 per cent for Punjab, 26 per cent for Haryana, 38 per cent in Bihar, and 30 per cent in Jharkhand.
Cumulatively, Delhi’s rainfall stands at an excess of 9 per cent, according to IMD data.
Other states such as Andhra Pradesh (34 per cent), Meghalaya (56 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (36 per cent), Manipur (37 per cent) and Goa (36 per cent) have also recorded a deficit.
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More trouble in August
In its latest forecast, the IMD stuck to its forecast of a deficit for the remaining monsoon period. The forecasting agency said that India is expected to receive below-normal rainfall in August, averaging less than 94 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
Forecasters also said that moderate El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are expected to strengthen through the rest of the monsoon season. ThePrint had also reported that in August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving pulse of clouds that is usually characterised by increased rainfall, is also entering Phase 6. This is a sign of reduced rainfall activity over the Indian territory for the month of August, weathermen warned.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet Weather Services, explained that the current active weather systems that have been bringing rain in parts of northwest and central India will subside. This will likely lead to at least a few weeks of subdued rainfall.
“After 10 August, a break condition is likely to be experienced. We are expecting to end the month on a deficit,” Palawat said.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)