New Delhi: Global temperatures temporarily hit a record high on 17 November, soaring to more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, according to preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The data showed that the Earth was 2.06°C warmer than the pre-industrial era (1850-1900 CE) — a critical threshold for climate change. “Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C,” Dr Sam Burgess, deputy director of C3S posted on X (formerly Twitter) and shared two graphs.
Provisional ERA5 global temperature for 17th November from @CopernicusECMWF was 1.17°C above 1991-2020 – the warmest on record.
Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C. pic.twitter.com/jXF8oRZeip
— Dr Sam Burgess 🌍🌡🛰 (@OceanTerra) November 19, 2023
According to the graphs shared by Burgess, the Earth was 1.17°C warmer than 1991-2020 levels, and 2.06°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
The 2°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 has not been crossed yet, but the one-day spike in global temperature on 17 November shows how fast the planet is heating up due to rising greenhouse gas levels.
The C3S produces the ERA-5 database, which combines satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and historical data to give hourly estimates of the Earth’s mean temperature and other atmospheric variables.
Another estimate by computer scientist Eliot Jacobson, using data from the US government’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate forecast system, also reported the breach. However, Jacobson’s estimates indicated that the global temperature dropped to 1.9°C on 20 November, and was expected to decline further in the next few days.
Apocalypse not quite yet:
Yesterday the global surface temperature dropped dramatically after breaching 2.0°C over the pre-industrial average for the first time on Nov. 18th. The temperature is now back to 1.9°C and is forecast to fall even further over the coming days. pic.twitter.com/mmkbCQI6wb
— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) November 20, 2023
I was nervous posting my graphic showing 2.01°C because breaking 2°C is a huge event and I didn't want to get it wrong.
Then @LeonSimons8 posted the one below from Nov. 17 showing 2.06°C, and it relieved 100% of the stress.
Different data sets, same result. 2°C breached. https://t.co/1jYi9hsZ1u
— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) November 19, 2023
Interestingly, the rise in temperature came at a time when the UN COP28 climate conference is set to begin in Dubai on 30 November. The event will witness the first ‘global stocktake’ of the Paris Agreement.
The summit is set to review each country’s progress in meeting their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of greenhouse gases agreed upon at the Paris Agreement.
A synthesis report released by the United Nations on 8 September, however, has already declared that ‘countries are not in line’ with the mitigation pathways required to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C. The COP 28 summit is expected to be a crucial moment for the global community to demonstrate its commitment and urgency to tackle the climate crisis.
Why it matters
The spike in global temperature on 17 November was a momentary but alarming event, as 2023 has already been declared the “warmest year” on record by the World Meteorological Organization, and 2024 is projected to be even warmer.
The world has also witnessed extreme weather events this year, such as wildfires in Canada and Europe and heatwaves in South Asia.
The breach of the 2°C mark also has implications for the Paris Agreement — a global pact signed by 196 countries in 2015 — which aimed to limit the increase in global temperatures to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”. The Paris Agreement also set a lower target of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as exceeding that level would entail severe climate impacts.
According to a ‘global temperature trend monitor’ by C3S, the world is expected to surpass the 1.5°C target by 2030-2050 at the earliest.
But the United Nations Environment Programme’s 2023 Emissions Gap report is less optimistic.
The report, titled ‘Broken Record — Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)’, published on 20 November examines the gap between current world emissions and the required emissions to limit global warming to Paris Agreement levels.
Based on current greenhouse gas emissions, the report estimates that without stringent mitigation measures, global warming would rise to a staggering 3°C by the end of the century. To limit warming to 1.5°C by 2030, emissions need to fall by 42 percent worldwide, it added.
A 2018 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change explains the challenges to natural systems at 1.5°C global warming.
Due to increased exposure to climate-related risks, such as droughts, high precipitation, floods, and heatwaves, regions of Asia and Africa are also more vulnerable to poverty due to high global warming levels, said the report.
It also outlines how increased temperatures would lead to the loss and extinction of local species due to increased forest fires, pests, and diseases.
According to the report, entire ecosystems would be threatened by global mean temperatures increasing to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Danger of overshooting temperatures
The 2018 report also warns that the dangers of global warming increase with increased chances of “overshooting” temperatures.
This means that if global temperatures were to rise above 1.5°C and then return to 1.5°C due to human intervention, the effects would be worse than if temperatures were consistent at 1.5°C or below.
The “overshoot” of temperatures above levels agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, even temporarily, is expected to cause huge impacts on natural ecosystems.
The world has already seen the devastating human and economic loss due to extreme weather events like the heatwaves in Europe and South Asia and the wildfires in Canada this year, as well as the 2022 floods in Pakistan and the Himalayan regions of India.
According to the report, rising temperatures are expected to increase extreme weather events, and also impact sea-level rise, and marine ecosystems.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)