New Delhi: A new study by researchers from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects more than 450,000 heat-related deaths in the first half of the current El Niño. The study, published on 23 September, also projects that due to the super El Niño, land temperatures will rise by around 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal until mid 2027.
“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome, death,” said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, in a press release.
Based on the scientists’ projections, between September 2026 to February 2027, the world could see 239,000 heat-related deaths, with a majority of the deaths concentrated in the global south, where temperatures are expected to rise exponentially. The rise in temperatures will lead to 44 per cent more “extremely hot” days compared to the baseline years from 1996 to 2025.
The highest projected deaths are going to be in the African Sahel region, with an additional 66,800 deaths from heat. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines are also expected to see more than 19,000 deaths, while India alone will see 15,800 additional heat-related deaths due to the super El Niño.
In descending order, Nigeria, Sudan, Indonesia and India are the top countries forecasted to see the highest heat-related deaths, followed closely by Brazil, which will see 13,000 additional deaths in the next six months.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a climate phenomenon in which trade winds and surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean change course, leading to large-scale disruptions in weather patterns across the world. In North and South America, especially near the Pacific coast, El Niño leads to extreme rainfall, snow, and storms.
In Asia, including India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and even Australia, El Niño conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoons, droughts and higher temperatures.
According to the study, the high temperatures from this El Niño, which is being called the strongest on record, will resemble the higher temperatures attributed to climate change in the next two decades – giving the world a taste of future global warming scenarios.
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India-specific heat
The study also added that the current El Niño officially began in June 2026 and is expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2027, with anomalies lingering into June and July 2027. However, not all heat-related casualties are forecasted to occur during the summer months. In India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Brazil, the highest mortality is expected to be between December and February.
“The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a ‘postcard from the future’,” said the study.
Scientists at the Climate Impact Lab also wrote about the systems and recommendations that will help prepare for the El Niño. These include, but are not limited to, early warning systems, heat action plans, increased access to cooling centres and primary healthcare centres for local communities, and mandating heat-adjusted working hours for outdoor workers. For the authors of the study, this El Niño will also act as an evidence base for future global temperature rise, and allow for long-term planning.
“Preparing for a hotter future will require a far more granular, continually updated understanding of what saves lives across different regions, climates, and health systems,” the report read.
(Edited by Insha Jalil Waziri)