New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal monsoon this year. Seasonal rainfall is expected to be at 90 per cent of the long-period average, and the IMD predicts an 84 per cent probability that rainfall will be below normal or deficient.
In comparison, the 2025 southwest monsoon season recorded a 108 per cent rainfall compared to the LPA, with most meteorological subdivisions in the country receiving either normal or excess rainfall.
However, this year’s IMD forecast is particularly alarming since low rainfall in the “monsoon core zone”, central India, the southern peninsula, and the northwest, means that the rain-fed agricultural belt is likely to take a hit.
This will further affect crop yield, soil moisture, the availability of water in rural areas, and even perhaps, the price of food. Such below-normal rain could even impact the generation of hydropower, and increase the risks of drought and heat stress.
Additionally, the IMD has suggested that areas vulnerable to low rainfall promote water conservation, efficient water resource management, and strengthen drought monitoring.
The heat persists
The IMD has also predicted above normal maximum temperatures in most parts of the country in June. Only some parts of northwest, central and south peninsular India are likely to see cooler days.
Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu are expected to face harsh heatwaves in June. The national weather agency also stressed that such prolonged high temperatures could have serious impacts on public health, power consumption, the availability of water, and essential services.
IMD’s predictions for a hot June come at a time when the country is still reeling from the heatwaves of May, where temperatures rose over 48 degrees Celsius in parts of UP and Rajasthan. Delhi also recorded its warmest night in 14 years with temperatures lingering around 32 degrees Celsius.
The recent press release also highlights that the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the cycle of fluctuating ocean temperatures, is now transitioning into the El Niño. This means that sea temperatures are likely to get abnormally warm in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The El Niño is significant for India as it weakens monsoon winds, leading to below-average rainfall, dry spells, and a higher risk of droughts.
(Edited by Insha Jalil Waziri)