New Delhi: Russian crude supplies to India are expected to remain broadly steady at around 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in October, while imports from Venezuela and Angola are rising as Indian refiners continue to secure alternative supplies amid growing uncertainty around the Gulf, according to Natalia Katona, commodity analyst at OilPrice.com based in Abu Dhabi.
Katona said Russia continues to account for the largest share of India’s crude imports, but there has been no meaningful change in either the overall volume of Russian crude heading to India (compared to September), or the buying patterns of individual refiners.
The early estimates, based on Kpler data, cover cargoes already delivered and those at sea as on 14 October. Kpler is a commodity intelligence company that tracks global oil cargo flows.
The figures remain provisional as some vessels loaded in Russia do not reveal their final destination until late in their voyages.
“I see no meaningful shift in either the overall volume of Russian crude heading to India or individual refiners’ buying patterns,” Katona told ThePrint.
ThePrint reported last month that Russian crude arrivals had fallen sharply in September. India imported around 1.74 million b/d of Russian crude last month, down from about 2.02 million b/d in August and 2.66 million b/d in July.
Venezuela, Angola emerge as key alternatives
While Russian supplies are holding steady, Katona expects India’s imports from alternative producers to increase in October.
Venezuelan crude supplies are expected to rise to just over 300,000 b/d this month, compared with around 200,000 b/d in September, Katona said.
Imports from Angola have also increased sharply. Katona said Indian purchases of Angolan crude have tripled from their 2025 average this October to around 290,000 b/d.
For the first time in three months, crude from Gabon, Congo and Libya has also arrived at Indian ports, although the volumes so far comprise only a few vessels.
The increase in supplies from Venezuela and West Africa comes as Indian refiners face uncertainty over crude flows from the Gulf and prepare for higher seasonal fuel demand.
“The clear strategy is to secure crude from wherever it is secure to deliver during this turbulent time,” Katona said.
West African producers are also finding India a more attractive market, she said, as elevated freight rates mean their netback from sales to Indian refiners is better than from sales to Chinese customers.
Gulf supplies clouded by Hormuz risks
The outlook for Gulf supplies in October remains difficult to assess because cargoes can change quickly, particularly those routed through ship-to-ship (STS) transfers.
Saudi Arabia is currently the leading Gulf supplier, with around 550,000 b/d already loaded and heading to India, Katona said. But cargoes from the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Iraq that move through STS transfers around Fujairah and off the Oman coast become traceable in terms of their destination only after the transfer has been made.
With voyages from these transfer points taking less than a week, the final October numbers could change substantially, Katona said.
The uncertainty comes amid a worsening security situation around the Strait of Hormuz. According to Katona, the number of vessels reported sunk over the past two weeks was unprecedented, with attacks increasingly resulting in sinkings as tanker traffic has risen.
“The longer the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian vessels continues, the less incentive Iran has to let other producers’ oil through,” she said.
Given the rising tensions, Katona said she would not be surprised if India’s imports from the Gulf ended October below September levels.
That would mark a reversal from September, when Indian refiners sharply increased purchases from several Gulf producers as Russian crude arrivals declined. Iraq supplied around 575,000 b/d, Saudi Arabia about 566,000 b/d, the UAE nearly 480,000 b/d and Kuwait around 331,000 b/d, according to Kpler data.
The October import picture is also unfolding against uncertainty over US policy towards buyers of Russian energy.
US President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law on 18 September. The law gives the president authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas under specified conditions, including major buyers such as India and China. The tariffs are not automatic and would require the US President to exercise that authority.
Katona said she does not expect the legislation to translate into sanctions on India anytime soon. “Given the US–Russia diesel deal and President Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel trade, I would not expect Graham’s bill to translate into sanctions anytime soon.”
For now, India’s October crude buying points to a strategy of maintaining Russian supplies while broadening sourcing from Venezuela, Angola and other West African producers as uncertainty over Gulf shipments increases.
(Edited by Gitanjali Das)
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