New Delhi: Bangladeshis will head to polls Sunday in an election expected to solidify Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s fifth term in office.
Though the Modi government has steadfastly backed the Awami League government against Western concerns over the fairness of the elections, experts here say New Delhi risks putting all its eggs in one basket in the long-run.
Unlike the 2018 elections in Bangladesh, this year’s polls will not see the participation of all political parties.
The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies have boycotted the election after a slew of arrests of top leaders, including house arrest of two-time prime minister and BNP leader Khaleda Zia.
The boycott came after the government refused the opposition’s demand for a caretaker government to ensure a free and fair polls.
The Bangladesh Army has also been deployed to maintain law and order ahead of polls, which have seen violent clashes in the past.
Former foreign secretary K. Raghunath, who served as the Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh from 1992-95, notes that the rivalry between the BNP and the Awami League is not new.
“The conflict between BNP and Awami League, which I saw first hand in the ’90s, has contributed to the fragile state of democracy in Bangladesh today. There seems to be a consensus that the Awami League is not ‘fixing’ the elections per se, but doing whatever they can legally, to solidify their party ahead of the elections,” he said.
The upcoming elections have also been marked by clamour in the West about the fairness of polls and attempts by Hasina to undermine political opponents.
Last year, the US State Department imposed visa restrictions on individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh. Months earlier, on the floor of parliament, Hasina accused the US of attempting a “regime change” in her country.
India strongly backs Sheikh Hasina
India has maintained that Bangladesh’s polls are its “internal matter” while Russia and China have accused the US of meddling in the country’s affairs. Last month, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson M.V. Zakharova went as far as to say that Washington may provoke an Arab Spring-like unrest in Bangladesh after elections.
Sources in the Indian security establishment explained that the Hasina government has had very good ties with India. They added that the ties extend to all fields including security, economic and regional.
The sources said that traditionally BNP has been hostile to India and prior to Hasina coming to power in 2009, Bangladesh had become a safe haven for several anti-India terror and militant groups.
Moreover, Pakistan and its spy agency ISI is believed to have had an open field in Bangladesh while support to hardline Islamic groups was high.
Sources said that Hasina cracked down on all these outfits and there has been a close security cooperation between the two countries.
On the economic front too, Bangladesh has been a key destination for Indian goods.
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Expert warns India against putting all eggs in same basket
While the Modi government has steadfastly backed Hasina against the West’s concerns, experts say this may not bode well for New Delhi in the long run.
“Considering Sheikh Hasina’s age, this may be one of her last terms if not her last. This means we may one day see an Awami league minus Sheikh Hasina, which will not be the same party that New Delhi has been engaging with all these years. Therefore, India risks reposing its faith in a single person in Bangladesh in the long-run,” Sreeradha Datta, professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, told ThePrint.
By closely aligning itself with the Awami League, India also “invites unfavorability” from the BNP and others in the fray, and even the electorate in which there is a strong anti-incumbency sentiment, she added.
Datta also criticised the BNP for its decision to boycott the elections.
“Despite the arrests of many BNP leaders, the party should not have boycotted polls. They should have at least attempted to increase their vote share this time around. They’ve done a disservice to their allies and supporters,” she said.
American interest in Bangladesh
The US has emerged as the key Western voice against the Hasina government.
The iciness between Washington and Dhaka has increased over the last few years. Last May, Hasina went on a seven-day visit to Washington DC where she interacted with World Bank officials but did not meet US President Joe Biden, as is usually expected when a head of state visits the country.
Further, Bangladesh was not invited to the Biden administration’s Summit for Democracy for the second time last year, while its South Asian neighbours Pakistan and India were extended invitations.
The US had called for “unconditional dialogue” between the parties in Bangladesh.
Last year in May, the US announced a new visa policy for Bangladeshi citizens in what was meant to support a fair election in Bangladesh as well as restoring the democratic system in the country.
Under this new policy, the US will be able to deny visas to those who obstruct the election process in Bangladesh.
In September last year, the US Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights, Uzra Zeya, announced implementation of the new policy with visa restrictions on several Bangladeshi politicians and law enforcement personnel.
The announcement was made just hours after she held a meeting with Hasina who was in New York for the UN General Assembly’s annual meeting.
According to Raghunath, the grievances from Washington on human rights violations and democratic backsliding in Bangladesh are “strategic” in that they are a way to keep such countries on “good behaviour”, while also responding to domestic pressure groups in the US.
“The US also wants to prevent Sheikh Hasina from letting Bangladesh fall entirely into China’s orbit. Hasina, however, is a seasoned politician and she knows she will have to cleverly manoeuvre the US-China rivalry in her fifth term,” the former foreign secretary added.
However, economic cooperation between Beijing and Dhaka have also not seen much progress.
A report issued by Bangladesh’s Economic Relations Division (ERD) last November shows that only three out of 10 projects signed with China in the last seven years have been completed.
Bangla daily The Daily Prothom Alo at the time reported that officials are dragging their feet on China-funded projects due to the “geopolitical reality”.
Meanwhile, Hasina and Modi jointly unveiled three India-assisted projects last November — the Akhaura- Agartala Cross-Border Rail Link, Khulna – Mongla Port Rail Line and Unit-II of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant in Rampal, Bangladesh.
Sources in the Indian diplomatic and security establishment said that they did not believe that Hasina was on the Chinese side.
They said that China is a neighbour and an economic power which Bangladesh will have relations with as Hasina focuses on economic growth for her country.
At the 2+2 dialogue between India and the US in November, New Delhi had strongly shared its views on the political churnings in Bangladesh and the various interests that are at play while clearly underlining that no country should try and influence elections in a second country.
“Insofar as Bangladesh is concerned, we shared our perspective very clearly. It is not our space to comment on a policy of a third country. When it comes to developments in Bangladesh, elections in Bangladesh, it’s their domestic matter,” Indian foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters in a briefing after the 2+2 dialogue.
Independent candidates to reap benefits
On account of the Opposition’s boycott, expectations for voter turnout are low.
“Voter turnout is likely to be about 50 per cent but may not exceed the 2018 levels of 80 per cent. I expect at least half of BNP supporters to cast their votes for independent candidates, which have increased this year,” Rabb Majumdar, Editor of Dhaka-based magazine Security World, told ThePrint.
This year has seen an uptick in independent candidates, some of whom used to be part of the Awami League and the BNP.
For example, Khaled Shawkat Ali, the son of former deputy speaker Shawkat Ali, is contesting as an Independent from Shariatpur-2 (Naria-Sakhipur) constituency, a stronghold for him and his family.
Ziaul Haque Mollah, contesting from Bogra’s 04 constituency, used to be part of BNP but is now contesting as an independent candidate.
“Such candidates will get votes from disgruntled BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami supporters,” Majumdar added.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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