New Delhi: US President Donald Trump’s phone calls to prime ministers Narendra Modi and Imran Khan Monday were less about India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir and more about his country’s exit from Afghanistan and trade with New Delhi, sources told ThePrint.
The US President had called up the leaders separately amid rising tensions between the neighbours over India’s decision to revoke Article 370, which granted Jammu & Kashmir special status. A statement released by the White House said Trump “reaffirmed the need to avoid escalation of the situation, and urged restraint” on both sides.
However, according to sources, his call to Khan was focused on ensuring that Pakistan does not divert its attention from the Afghanistan peace process, as Islamabad has hinted in the wake of India’s decision to strip Kashmir of its special status.
The call to Modi, meanwhile, was meant to convince India to hammer out a substantial trade package for the benefit of American firms and farmers, the sources added.
Trump faces his second presidential election in 2020, four years after he came to office on the back of a polarising and controversial campaign. The return of American troops from Afghanistan and “trade parity” with nations such as India and China are two of the US President’s key campaign promises.
‘Kashmir shouldn’t come in the way’
During his phone call to Khan, Trump stressed that Islamabad should not cite the Kashmir crisis as an issue and help the US conclude talks with the Taliban before the 2020 presidential elections gather steam.
He told Khan that the Kashmir crisis should not be allowed to come in the way of the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, diplomatic sources told ThePrint.
The US has set 1 September as the deadline to conclude peace talks with the Afghan Taliban.
“This is not about mediation. The US knows that India does not accept mediation on the substantive issues concerning Kashmir,” said former Indian ambassador to US Arun K. Singh.
“But whenever there is a crisis, international parties have always stepped in. The idea behind the phone call is also an opportunity for Trump to show that he can and he is playing a role in controlling the crisis,” he added.
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The PoK question
A day after the Modi government announced the abrogation of Article 370, Home Minister Amit Shah said any reference to J&K included the parts under Pakistani and Chinese occupation, that is, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Aksai Chin.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh hinted at something similar when he said Sunday that any talks between India and Pakistan would be about PoK.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar subsequently told China, while on a visit there, that India is not looking to redraw the border. However, Shah and Singh’s statements have made the US jittery as well, because any such move would spell disruption in the region and divert Pakistan’s attention from Afghan peace talks.
According to sources, one of the main reasons why Trump chose to make the call to Modi and Khan simultaneously is because he does not want any further movement or changes as far as issues concerning the Line of Control and the International Border (between India and Pakistan) and the Line of Actual Control (between India and China) is concerned.
His focus is now a peaceful exit from Afghanistan and bagging a meaty trade deal from New Delhi.
Meera Shankar, who served as India’s ambassador to the US from 2009 till 2011, said that the US realises India’s rhetoric on PoK, something that every government has raked up so far. Trump, she added, wanted to see “to what extent this rhetoric is being acted upon by this government”.
Trump focused on enhancing trade with India
According to a statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs after the Trump-Modi call, the PM “expressed the hope” that Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will meet US trade representative Robert Lighthizer “at an early date to discuss bilateral trade prospects for mutual benefit”.
With the US not being able to make much headway in hammering out a trade deal with China, the Trump administration is now focusing more heavily on India to get tariff-free access for its agricultural goods and medical devices.
This, despite Washington’s grievances with New Delhi over data localisation issues that are impacting the operations of American conglomerates.
According to sources, Trump wants India to cough up a substantial trade deal before he heads for the 2020 presidential elections.
“Any trade deal with the US will require substantial give-and-take,” Shankar said. “Trump is not able to make a deal with China, so his focus is on India now.”
Modi and Trump will both be in France for the G-7 summit from 24-26 August. However, a bilateral meeting is not yet confirmed. In September, Modi will be embarking on a week-long visit to the US where he will hold a summit meeting with Trump.
Goyal is also expected to visit the US in the next few weeks to meet Lighthizer, where both sides are expected to work out a trade deal that has been under discussion for over two years now.
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A “ meaty “ trade deal with vegetarian India is not easily achieved. Commerce Minister is yet to be given time for a meeting by the Trade Representative. 2. When it is said that – by way of reassurance – India is not seeking to redraw the map with China, the meaning remains ambiguous. Aksai Chin is included in our map. So does the statement convey that India is no longer serious about its claim. 3. The spike in India – Pakistan tensions in August clashes with the US – Taliban deal, which is near finalisation. President Trump may have conveyed to both sides that the US would be unhappy to see things spiral out of control.
Unbiased Article By “The Print”, Which Says The TRUTH!!
Spot on ..bang on..after a very long time…a reporter(from the print) has got it right with perfect timing …my compliments to the journalist..to read the situation correctly and analyse it and give us a clear narrative…
Thanks Ms basu
The US has a very huge trade deficit with China, with India smaller number. But if India yields to some pet projects of Trump (Harley Davidson motorcycles), he will reward India.
We also don’t know what Modi is up to. He may have worked out a few things aided by Jaishankar. US doesn’t make anything like S400 from Russia. We cannot give this up.
Trump laid a trap for Imran and Bajwa with his White House invite. Pakis fell face down into it. Trump is faking it and pretending he is mediating, neutral, etc. He has other tools to handle pakis- FATF, IMF,etc.