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Thursday, August 14, 2025
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MacroSutra

Real estate, IT, gig jobs, MNREGA: Making sense of India’s roller-coaster unemployment crisis

Employment in India rose from 394.6 million in August to 404.2 million in September, and while the numbers are still below pre-Covid levels, the increase is encouraging.

India’s falling forex reserve isn’t a worry for now, but RBI has a tightrope walk ahead

With US Fed hiking rates, RBI might be pushed to increase its own rates to slow simultaneous fall of rupee & India's forex reserves. But this could also hurt economic growth.

Bank credit has bounced back, but rising interest rates & inflation can be new hurdles

Despite rising interest rates, bank credit growth rose to a nine-year-high last month. While credit to MSMEs has shown consistent double-digit growth, it’s large industries that have really helped.  

Why volatile food prices will keep the heat on India’s consumer inflation level this year

Lower rainfall in some parts of the country is expected to keep food prices elevated in the coming months. Which means inflation will be above 6%.

Falling exports, rising imports show why India has to look within to push growth for now

Boosting competitiveness is the key to enhancing exports. Inflation remains an issue but RBI should allow the rupee to gradually depreciate.

Don’t sneer at 13.5% GDP growth. But consumption, investment critical in future quarters

Q1 GDP numbers show uneven recovery and pace of growth is likely to moderate due to global headwinds and mixed monsoon.

Chinese economy has been hit by a perfect storm: Property shock, Zero Covid, climate, Taiwan

The world's second largest economy is in crisis, hit by lockdowns, impaired supply chains, slump in real estate sector and geo-political tensions.

Why consumer confidence is on the rise in India & how this optimism can be sustained

CMIE’s consumer sentiments & RBI’s consumer confidence indices show improvement. If initial signs of inflation easing are sustained, consumer confidence will see marked turnaround.

Why are Bihar, Punjab, Rajasthan fiscally stressed? Every state has its own root cause

Bihar has lowest own tax revenue, Punjab high committed expenditures, while Rajasthan has deviated from fiscal deficit target. Such states need to balance vote bank & fiscal prudence.

Why Modi govt is on strong ground on fiscal deficit but some states are struggling

Central govt's fiscal deficit touched 21% of full-year target in April-June quarter. But going forward, buoyant tax collections could help manage higher than budgeted expenditure.

On Camera

Asim Munir wants to be guardian of the Middle East. He’s fated to fail at home

Countering insurgency needs the Pakistan Army to demonstrate a political will that ties leaders at the centre with those in the borderlands. But it may not have the imagination.

Slashing GST on waste can unlock Rs 1.8 lakh crore, high tax hurting circular economy goals—CSE

Centre for Science and Environment in new report makes case for rationalising GST on waste material, saying most informal operators can’t afford high tax & it also hinders recycling.

India, US troops to undertake joint military exercise next month, first after Op Sindoor

21st edition of annual joint military exercise will be held from 1 to 16 September, aimed at sharing military tech, operational best practices & disaster relief coordination methods.

Modi’s ready to risk it all for farmers. Farm reform can answer Trump with new Green Revolution

Standing up to America is usually not a personal risk for a leader in India. Any suggestions of foreign pressure unites India behind who they see as leading them in that fight.