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Sunday, October 12, 2025
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MacroSutra

Real estate, IT, gig jobs, MNREGA: Making sense of India’s roller-coaster unemployment crisis

Employment in India rose from 394.6 million in August to 404.2 million in September, and while the numbers are still below pre-Covid levels, the increase is encouraging.

India’s falling forex reserve isn’t a worry for now, but RBI has a tightrope walk ahead

With US Fed hiking rates, RBI might be pushed to increase its own rates to slow simultaneous fall of rupee & India's forex reserves. But this could also hurt economic growth.

Bank credit has bounced back, but rising interest rates & inflation can be new hurdles

Despite rising interest rates, bank credit growth rose to a nine-year-high last month. While credit to MSMEs has shown consistent double-digit growth, it’s large industries that have really helped.  

Why volatile food prices will keep the heat on India’s consumer inflation level this year

Lower rainfall in some parts of the country is expected to keep food prices elevated in the coming months. Which means inflation will be above 6%.

Falling exports, rising imports show why India has to look within to push growth for now

Boosting competitiveness is the key to enhancing exports. Inflation remains an issue but RBI should allow the rupee to gradually depreciate.

Don’t sneer at 13.5% GDP growth. But consumption, investment critical in future quarters

Q1 GDP numbers show uneven recovery and pace of growth is likely to moderate due to global headwinds and mixed monsoon.

Chinese economy has been hit by a perfect storm: Property shock, Zero Covid, climate, Taiwan

The world's second largest economy is in crisis, hit by lockdowns, impaired supply chains, slump in real estate sector and geo-political tensions.

Why consumer confidence is on the rise in India & how this optimism can be sustained

CMIE’s consumer sentiments & RBI’s consumer confidence indices show improvement. If initial signs of inflation easing are sustained, consumer confidence will see marked turnaround.

Why are Bihar, Punjab, Rajasthan fiscally stressed? Every state has its own root cause

Bihar has lowest own tax revenue, Punjab high committed expenditures, while Rajasthan has deviated from fiscal deficit target. Such states need to balance vote bank & fiscal prudence.

Why Modi govt is on strong ground on fiscal deficit but some states are struggling

Central govt's fiscal deficit touched 21% of full-year target in April-June quarter. But going forward, buoyant tax collections could help manage higher than budgeted expenditure.

On Camera

No Mamata Banerjee, women’s safety isn’t a curfew issue

For Indian women, the smallest unit of control becomes the family; the largest, the State. Both speak the same language.

Niti Aayog recommends fully decriminalising 12 offences under new I-T Act to ‘foster more trust’

Recommendations appear in Niti Aayog’s Tax Policy Working Paper Series–II. It says there is a need to shift away from fear-based enforcement to trust-based governance.

India, UK sign £350 mn deal for Martlet. What are these Lightweight Multirole Missiles

In service with the British military since 2019, it is also known as the Martlet missile. Ukrainians have also deployed these missiles against Russian troops.

CJI, IPS, IAS & Homebound: A wake-up call 75 years in the making

Education, reservations, govt jobs are meant to bring equality and dignity. That we are a long way from that is evident in the shoe thrown at the CJI and the suicide of Haryana IPS officer. The film Homebound has a lesson too.