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The opposition unity meeting organized by CM Nitish Kumar has its perks and drawbacks. While most of the media is talking about its feasibility, difficulties, and necessity or even speculating about the results if it happens. I rarely saw anyone talking about its drawbacks. Yet this hype by the opposition of showing unity or moving forward in the direction of opposition unity has its own damages for the opposition if it doesn’t happen.
My opinion is in 3 parts
- Losing confidence by voters in opposition
- Vote cutters and transfer of vote
- Damage to reputation and credibility of CM Nitish Kumar
Voters confidence in opposition
BJP has 33% of intact vote share in present scenario which we are looking at many states where BJP has lost elections. BJP will fight for 7% votes as in last election they got around 37% vote share with allies, this time though allies are less they will need more than 37% vote to mark their presence with above 300 seats.
Since the opposition is also trying to fight for the same votes which dwindle around right to left or vice versa these voters vote on many issues and 1 of which is confidence in leaders.
Repeatedly in the past 5 years, we have seen that if there is a regional leader or a strong leader whether of any party has generally won like BJP in UP and Assam, Congress in Karnataka, CPI in Kerala, DMK in Tamilnadu, etc. The same can be said for Lok Sabha also where everyone agrees that BJP has the advantage because of weak opposition. CM Nitish Kumar trying to fill that void by uniting the opposition and giving hope and avoiding questions on the PM candidate to keep BJP away from the majority is a good idea.
But in case if now this opposition splits then voters might lose confidence and will shift to BJP more aggressively. People have seen govt formed by alliances for a long time of both NDA, UPA, and others. The trend in this NEW Digital World is more of authoritarian leaders with a Nationalistic approach.
Vote cutters and Transfer of Votes
One should not forget that in the 2019 general election BSP and SP fought together in UP. Results We all know although BJP lost its tally compared to 2014 the lesson was vote transfer now is not easy. The opposition will find it difficult to keep its vote base intact when on ballet they are facing PM Modi. Another headache will be of vote cutters as those who won’t be getting tickets from party will be profiting by playing on both sides.
Damage to reputation and credibility of CM Nitish Kumar
CM Nitish Kumar is certain of 2 things. First, he knows that no matter what he won’t be CM again in the next state assembly election that’s why he left BJP to at least save his party from being marginalised by BJP. Tejasvi Yadav no matter what the result of the 2024 general assembly election will push for the CM post before the state assembly election. Second, even if BJP’s tally goes down by 75 seats BJP will still form govt in the center by forming a coalition “JOD TOD ki SARKAR”. Even if the opposition forms the government chances of Nitish Kumar becoming PM are slim then why does he spearhead for a united opposition?
One reason seems if there is government by opposition by central he may get some top post like home ministry or defense etc. but a man with the ambition of becoming PM will adjust to those ministries is a question and if it would have been case BJP would have happily provided him with such post. Second, he may convince Tejasvi to take such ministry until Bihar Assembly Election and complete his tenure as both Tejasvi and Nitish know the opposition”s alliance government may not be able to complete even one year.
So one might think what is there for CM Nitish Kumar to lose? Being a third-number party in Bihar and already shifting poles twice now his credibility had suffered a dent. Now if this jargon of the united opposition fails his credibility of being a powerful leader will be dented, which BJP will even use to taunt and belittle him. In such case if ‘Mahagathbandhan’ of Bihar loses the next assembly election it will lead to the end road of Nitish Kumar and JDU similar to JDS in Karnataka. Being a CM for more than 18 years his reputation will be at stake.
In the end, I will conclude by saying Nitish Kumar and the opposition has more to lose than to gain by creating this hype instead if it was done silently rather than show off it would have provided better results.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.