Kairana bypoll results: A reflection on Yogi or Modi?

Illustration by Siddhant Gupta

After staggering losses in Phulpur and Gorakhpur earlier this year, the BJP lost in Uttar Pradesh’s Kairana bypoll despite Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s tight grip. The RLD-Congress tie up here is being viewed as a testing ground for opposition unity ahead of 2019.

ThePrint asks: Kairana bypoll results: A reflection on Yogi or Modi?

BJP’s star-campaigners in Kairana lacked experience, acceptability

Bharatendra Singh
MP, BJP

The projected leaders of the dominant Scheduled Caste (jatav – Mayavati’s caste) and the Backward Caste (Jats – ex-PM Ch. Charan Singh’s caste) who were given the responsibility of winning this bye-election have clearly failed. Their leadership has been rejected by the masses and the voters.

Sanjeev Balyan and Bhupendra Singh were appointed star-campaigners by the party organisation. Balyan was working in the veterinary department of Haryana and then suddenly given an MP ticket and a MoS portfolio. The loss in Jat-dominated Shamli clearly shows that apart from his projection by the party, his leadership does not hold sway with Jat voters.

Same is the case with Bhupinder Singh, the minister for Panchayati Raj in Uttar Pradesh, who has never won an election. They either lack experience or acceptability.

The party must field leaders with experience who can make a difference on the ground. Appointments must convert into votes and people’s support. The leaders, who are being projected as of now, seem more like appointees than people’s leaders. We also must consider that these castes have their own leaders and parties (BSP and RLD).

It is unfortunate that the SCs and the Jats, who voted for the BJP in 1991 and 2014, are looking away from nationalism/ Hindututva to their caste affiliation again (based on the data available until now).

The results show that the opposition unity is something the BJP must look at carefully. It may not be ideologically driven, but it is a worrying caste and communal arithmetic of votes. However, experience tells us that this unity never lasts long. The parties have been driven together by negativity and desperation based on an anti-Modi agenda. This negativity can never overcome their personal, socio-economic and ideological differences.

2019 will be different because the BJP will certainly take corrective measures.

Opposition convinced voters of BJP’s kharab niyat, khokla vikas

Aashish Yadav
Consultant, SP

The reason for the BJP’s humiliating defeat in Kairana, the seat where it won with a margin of over 1.3 lakh votes in 2014, confirms that its return in the 2019 general elections is impossible. The opposition alliance’s candidate has convinced voters that the BJP’s claims of saaf niyat and sahee vikas are actually kharab niyat aur khokhla vikas.

During his meetings in Kairana, CM Yogi Adityanath said that ‘sugarcane is an issue and we are committed to solve the issue, but we will not let them have Jinnah’s photographs’. Yogi kept telling the sugarcane farmers how much the government has paid the sugar mills but kept silent on the how much is left to be paid.

According to the latest official figures released by the government, sugarcane farmers still have dues worth Rs 12,750 crore. The opposition understood the pulse of the farmers and kept on raising the ‘sugarcane’ issue. And the BJP could not gain sympathy for the candidate who was contesting on his deceased father’s seat.

In Uttar Pradesh, 14 months have passed since the BJP formed the government. In the bye-elections held since, the BJP government faced defeat in one assembly and three Lok Sabha constituencies. PM Modi, who is on a foreign tour now, did a road show in Baghpat a day before polling in Kairana. He made big announcements, media covered the event throughout the day, but nothing helped. In short, in Kairana, ‘communalism lost, and inclusive socialism won’.

After Kairana loss, BJP will up Hindutva rhetoric for 2019

R. P. N. Singh
Spokesperson, Congress

The result in Uttar Pradesh is a vote against the BJP’s policies and ‘jumlas’. They have, at both the central and state level, failed to deliver on their promises.

BJP had an advantage in Uttar Pradesh because the vote share was divided among too many parties. Once the opposition came together, it lost that advantage. If this trend is repeated in the Lok Sabha election, Uttar Pradesh will be a complete wipe out for the BJP.

Hindutva is the only plank they have, for both the Vidhan Sabha and the Lok Sabha elections. People can now see through that. There is unemployment, farmer crisis, dejection among the middle class, and zero policy for the poor. The people of UP have suffered under the BJP government. The development that the media keeps talking about hasn’t reached the people who need it the most in the state.

Despite having majority seats in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha, the BJP has failed to deliver. People put their confidence in them, but their delivery has been zero. They gave the farmers a loan waiver of what, 5 paisa to 10 paisa? People can see through their game. The bypoll results show who they favour.

On the state level, the BJP is now definitely on the back foot. It will up the ante on the Hindutva plank for 2019.

Both UP and Karnataka are saying that Modi and Yogi better buckle up

Sudhindra Bhadoria
Member, BSP

The bypolls in Kairana, and generally the byelection trends across the country, are a decisive vote against Narendra Modi’s divisive politics. The country is saying no to the way the BJP has conducted itself during its term. Modi promised a number of things before he became the prime minister. He seems to have failed on every count. After four years, people haven’t taken well the empty promises and the ‘jumlas’ of the BJP.

Even Yogi Adityanath has been a major disappointment. During his term, a BJP MLA was accused of rape in Unnao. In Saharanpur, minorities took a hit. Then there was the violence in Kasganj. Clearly, people are saying no to this kind of governance.

The trend very clearly shows that the people across India have begun to favour the opposition. Mayawati demonstrated this very ably in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. She showed that the BJP can be routed. It is the farsightedness of Mayawati that has helped create such a situation in Uttar Pradesh. Her approach in Karnataka was also very positive. She wants to protect the Constitution of India. She is fighting to preserve the democratic structure of this country that the BJP is trying to destroy.

The loud message we are hearing is that ‘manuvaad’ (the BJP’s conservative Hindu ideology), ‘saamantavaad’ (feudalism) and crony capitalism won’t work in India. Babasaheb Ambedkar’s ideology is what the country needs at the moment.

Both UP and Karnataka are saying that Modi and Yogi better buckle up. If the opposition unites the way it has done till now, the BJP can be defeated.

It’s a loss for the both Modi and Yogi, who instigated communal tension with their speeches

Aeshwarya Raj Singh
State convenor, RLD, IT cell

More than anything, this victory is for communal harmony and prosperity in western Uttar Pradesh. The bypoll has been able to restore the social fabric of the region and champions social harmony over communal politics. It’s a loss for both Modi and Yogi, who tried to create a constituency by instigating communal tension through their speeches and acts.

The nation should be thankful to the people of Kairana, who have voted on real issues, despite an attempt by the BJP to polarise the election. Historically, western UP has always been a prime example of how people from different communities came together to vote on farmer’s issues.

Chaudhary Charan Singh was behind the close bond that Jats and Muslims shared in the region. The unfortunate incidents of 2013 destroyed this social fabric and gave the BJP a chance to break this unity. But four years of Modi government has made the people realise that farmers have been completely neglected by this government. The issue of Ganna Kisan payments is still pending.

Kairana was known for palayan (exodus) post-2013, now it will be known for communal and Ganna harmony. False promises of jobs by both Yogi and Modi have been rebuffed by the unemployed youth.

The farming community has again accepted Ajit Singh ji as their leader and has chosen Jayant Chaudhary ji as their voice. Jayant Chaudhary and Ajit Singh ji extensively went to all villages and tried to ease communal tension and the people of Kairana responded by giving them a clear mandate.

If the trend of opposition coalition continues, BJP may stare at a crisis

Badri Narayan
Professor, G.B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad

The political situation across the country is changing rapidly. New social combinations are taking shape, which are a key factor in ushering these alliances towards victory. In a sense, this is an extended and different version of the Mandal mobilisation. Various castes and communities are aligning to achieve affirmative political results.

Why are they aligning now? The simplistic answer would be a growing sense of disenchantment with the BJP. Clearly, the people believe that the BJP hasn’t fulfilled its mandate. Non-BJP forces are capitalasing on this and polarising people against the BJP.

There may be various reasons for the disenchantment. The point, however, is that the BJP is working for people. They have conceptualised and implemented schemes for them. I believe the gap between implementation and awareness is what is causing this negative perception. Although the schemes are out there, people don’t know about them or can’t gain access to them.

This is a vote against both Modi and Yogi Adityanath. The opposition has realised how massive a threat the BJP is. Their only lifeline is to form a grand coalition to combat them. If the trend continues, it may create a crisis for the BJP at the centre as well as the state level.

It is now clear Kairana of 2018 is very different from the Kairana of 2014

Maneesh Chhibber
Editor (Investigations & Special Projects), ThePrint

The defeat of the BJP candidate in Kairana isn’t shocking. The signs were there for all to see but many chose not to stick their neck out for fear of getting it wrong. But, there is a clear consensus over who to blame for the defeat in Kairana, ie, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath and not Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The party had left it entirely on Yogi to ensure that the BJP candidate emerged victorious. And Yogi failed, once again. Losing three Lok Sabha bypolls in a state, where his party won handsomely in the assembly elections just about a year back, is a clear sign that the man, often hailed as Modi Part-II, is nowhere close to the PM in terms of working the electoral magic.

The man that the BJP eagerly takes around the country wherever some deft polarisation is required for election wins is not the Hindu Hridaya Samrat after all. Jinnah and Pakistan, which formed the core of Yogi’s election narrative, isn’t helping the BJP and the sooner the party accepts this reality, the better it would be in the run-up to next year’s general election.

Kairana was the laboratory where the BJP laid the seeds of Modi’s eventual victory in 2014. Remember the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. Yogi did refer to the riots in his speeches during the Kairana byelection campaign. But, the Kairana of 2018, it is now clear, is very different from the Kairana of 2014. Polarisation can help a party only to a certain extent. After all, Hindus and Muslims also have to earn a living and, if it comes to choosing between food and religion, we know where the affinity of most would lay.

Kairana has also shown that farmers aren’t buying Narendra Modi’s rhetoric about doubling farm incomes by 2022. “What are you giving us today?” the sugarcane farmers seem to have asked Modi.

Unless Modi and the party tell Yogi to perform and deliver, the party will face serious consequences in 2019.

Compiled by Deeksha Bhardwaj, journalist at ThePrint.