Two days after the Narendra Modi government abrogated Article 370, Pakistan suspended the Samjhauta Express service, downgraded diplomatic ties, cut off bilateral trade with India. Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan also warned that India’s move can lead to more Pulwama-like attacks and war and said he will take the Kashmir issue to the UN.
ThePrint asks: Has Modi forced Pakistan to escalate tensions, terror and draw big powers to Kashmir?
Kashmir has been off Pakistan’s political radar. Imran Khan reacts because of public opinion
A.S. Dulat
Former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW)
Over a period of time, Kashmir has gone off Pakistan’s political radar. The credit for this must go to Pakistan’s former President Pervez Musharraf. Of course, 9/11 put a lot of pressure on Pakistan. So, when the pressure to join the war against terror came, Pakistan held back on Kashmir as well. In their last election in 2018, Kashmir had not really been brought up.
Gradually, Pakistan has come to realise that Kashmir is not paying any great dividends. There was more keenness on the parts of both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan for peace with India. Kashmir had gone in the background. But something in the background can still remain a sensitive matter.
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s problem is that the political opposition in Pakistan is gunning against him on every issue. They have warned him not to show any weakness on Kashmir, forcing him to react in the manner he has. More than Modi, it is the political opposition in Pakistan that is forcing Imran Khan to say certain things.
The rest, of course, is reality – that whatever has happened has happened. All over the world, you find that politicians have to react according to public opinion. If Imran Khan says we are ready for war, it’s all rhetoric and exaggeration. No sane person talks war or wants war. And I’m sure Imran Khan would still want peace with India. It will take time now.
Also read: No, Modi’s Kashmir policy isn’t new. He’s only continuing what Nehru started in the 1950s
Not Pakistan, Modi has escalated tensions through his reckless and irresponsible actions in Kashmir
Salman Bashir
Former foreign secretary of Pakistan
After the Narendra Modi government’s decision to scrap Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, instead of Pakistan escalating tensions, quite the opposite has happened. It is Prime Minister Modi who has, through his reckless and irresponsible actions, escalated tensions.
Modi has created the spectre of a horrendous humanitarian crisis for the Kashmiri people in the state, and is pushing the region to a horrible catastrophe. The major powers cannot afford to be indifferent to the prevailing situation in Kashmir and South Asia.
One wonders how Prime Minister Modi will be able to follow through on revocation of Articles 35A and 370 except by brute force against innocent people of Kashmir. He has opted to be on the wrong side of history. There are some rational voices in India that have cautioned the government about the consequences of imposing such a racist ideology.
Even in these irrational and erratic times, Pakistan believes that we and our region must not capitulate to the basest instincts, and lose hope and faith in humanity and ideals. Precipitating a crisis is not difficult. Living with its consequences will haunt many for ages.
India’s Kashmir-related step is not an act of aggression against Pakistan
Kanwal Sibal
Executive council member, VIF, and former foreign secretary
Pakistan has sovereign choices to make and it is choosing to escalate tensions. India’s constitutional step related to Jammu and Kashmir is an internal matter. It is not an act of aggression against Pakistan and does not involve promoting terror there. We are not sending jihadi groups to rock Pakistan’s internal peace. We are not saying that we will give ‘political, moral and diplomatic’ support to anti-state actors in Pakistan. Our Army Chief is not threatening to “go to the end” to support the Baluchis, for instance. We are not speaking of a conventional war escalating into a nuclear one.
Pakistan’s case on Kashmir is not based on Article 370; it speaks of UN resolutions and self-determination etc. It can adhere still to that position – in violation of the Simla Agreement. How has Prime Minister Narendra Modi forced Pakistan to escalate terror in Kashmir? Pakistan has used terror there for the last three decades? Tensions have been caused by Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks – 26/11 Mumbai, Uri, Pathankot and so on.
The big powers hold Pakistan responsible for terror and are seeking – bilaterally and through the Financial Action Task Force – to force it to end its policy of terror in India and Afghanistan. They will not be drawn into the Kashmir issue simply because of the scrapping of Article 370.
Also read: Art 370 killed because Hindu Jammu, Buddhist Ladakh & Muslim Kashmir only benefitted Pakistan
Modi’s unilateral action is clear violation of Simla Agreement and Pakistan will definitely raise it at UN
Zahid Syed
Former Pakistan Ambassador
It is important to understand that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has removed Kashmiri people’s right to self-determination. And so, the Kashmiris will definitely protest once the curfew is lifted. Currently, they are locked up in a prison-like situation, but they will revolt and this will lead to a lot of turmoil and suppression.
These reactions from the Kashmiris will make India again blame Pakistan and pave the way for another conflict. One must remember that this is not just about Article 370. In 1950, the United Nations had spoken about the need for a plebiscite to resolve the Kashmir issue. Not holding a plebiscite is essentially ‘occupation’ by default. Pakistan supports Kashmiri people.
The Simla Agreement clearly states that the heads of state will meet periodically to find a solution to the Kashmir dispute. It also very clearly acknowledges that the dispute is territorial. Modi’s unilateral action is a clear violation of the 1972 agreement and will definitely be raised in the United Nations Security Council. It is also important to remember that Kashmir’s accession to India was a temporary solution and not a permanent state.
Pakistan’s stance has been consistent that the dispute should be resolved through negotiations. Prime Minister Imran Khan has reiterated this stance. However, Modi decided to do it unilaterally by legislation. If India and Pakistan go to war, they will destroy each other.
Pakistan wants international intervention to give legitimacy to its position on Kashmir
Arun Singh
Former Indian Ambassador to US
India has been consistent in its position that no third-party would have any role in the Kashmir issue, or any other bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. New Delhi will accept no mediation on substantive issues related to Pakistan, following the Simla Agreement signed in 1972.
However, every time there has been a crisis situation, major powers have always become active. Be it the Kargil War in 1999, the attack on Indian Parliament in 2001, or the recent Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot airstrikes. The Indian government’s recent decisions on Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, are very clearly within its sovereign jurisdiction.
The Pakistan government will feel the need to escalate tensions for its own vested interests and to appease its domestic constituency. This will be mainly to show its people and others that it is doing something in response to India’s move in Kashmir, and to divert attention from its support to terrorists.
Pakistan will also try to internationalise the situation, which it will try to project domestically as a gain. However, if the situation on the ground is calm, then there is unlikely to be any international activism.
Initial tension may be local but over time Pakistan will likely go back to playing the double game
Taha Siddiqui
Pakistani journalist living in exile in France
The Indian government’s move will definitely escalate tensions in the Kashmir region. But it is likely to be more indigenous in the beginning given Pakistan’s hands are tied at the moment with regards to what it can do, especially in terms of attempting to activate terror groups that have been operating on its soil.
With the sword of getting blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force hanging over its head, and the need for financial assistance due to a near-economic collapse, Pakistan cannot afford to have militants organising on its soil, with the world, and especially the United States, keeping an eye on it.
During PM Imran Khan and Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s recent visit to the US, Islamabad had promised “real action” against militancy. So, it will ensure that militant groups remain dormant for some time. But it may not be able to control jihadis for long, as Pakistan has a large militancy-inspired population, and it continues to produce a mindset that hates India.
So, in the short-term, we might not see Pakistan-linked violence in Kashmir, but once the international scrutiny and pressure is reduced, Pakistan (read Pakistan Army) may go back to playing the same old double-game – ask for a Kashmir resolution from India while keeping a low-intensity conflict in the region alive. This will keep the ‘threat from India’ narrative alive, which in turn will keep the Pakistani Army dominant at home in terms of budgetary requirements and policy-making. This way, it will continue to control the country.
Also read: How India’s liberals and opposition can start winning the battle of ideas
By Revathi Krishnan and Taran Deol
Pakistanis are going hoarse shouting “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” – but the chances are there will be a new slogan in India “Pakistan Banega Kashmir” –
if you understand its meaning!
It is a foolish Pakistani logic. Why they are even dreaming that other powers will side with bankrupt Pakistan against the lucrative huge market in India is a mystery. They should pray that others do not come into the picture, decisively tilting the balance against Pakistan. India does not want others to intervene only because it is confident they do not need any crutches of anyone. And Pakistan cannot talk about the unilateral change of status of Kashmir when they have gifted part of it to China. They cannot talk about plebiscite because it was Jinnah who had rejected the idea of a plebiscite. They cannot talk about UN resolutions because the first part of the resolution necessitates Pakistan to vacate occupied Kashmir, which they never did. They have signed Shimla agreement which supersedes UN resolutions and now the issue is strictly bilateral. So there is no scope for any international intervention. Pakistan has historically no locus standi in Kashmir issue and the only thing to be discussed now is how to hand over POK to India to settle the issue. Pakistan has bankrupt due to this foolish policy and if they continue on the suicidal path, they will be torn into several pieces. They will face right of self-determination from Baluchis, Sindhis and Pathans who do not want Punjabi yoke. Pakistan considers China as their mentor but does not learn anything from it. China takes advantage of a huge market next door forgetting about the differences and border disputes. Pakistan foolishly shuns huge economic opportunities just next door, while other powers are queuing to tap the potential. It is time for Pakistan to forget Kashmir.
mr nIazi surrendered to indian army in bangladesh.lets not forget miscreants will face judgement. enough of double game.
setth
3h
370 was Between INDIA and Hari singh.(ALL OTHER INCLUDING BRITISHERS ARE BYSTANDERS)
Begane shhadi mei PAKISTAN and shah Faesal including ,abdullahs,muftis,and azads and similar pseudo kashmiris in the name of illegal Pakistani occupied Kashmir,should shed their black skin.
INDIANS will show and must SHOW the price and place for violent massacres of pandits and wars imposed on India in last decades.
INDIANS and the opposition including priyanka or owaisi or whosoever oppose PRESIDENT”s order should be immediately tried for TREASON against India(This is an eminent need of All India)
Print How low you will go? Stop taking ISI money and start earning regular income.
Pulwama / Balakot reminded us that we are much closer to the precipice than is prudent for two nuclear armed adversaries. Had common friends not intervened on an emergent basis, a simple matter like release of a captured pilot would have acquired a runaway dimension of its own. It is also a fact that India and Pakistan today, one on one, are in no position to talk directly to each other and find mutually acceptable solutions to long standing problems. So this instinctive aversion to mediation / third party intervention / UN oversight is something that could be thought over. We have been able to manage our adversarial relationship with China much better, allowing a large volume of trade – also some investment – to take place despite the boundary question remaining frozen in time. A similar effort should be made to stabilise the relationship with Pakistan. We are in a very tense, dangerous, dysfunctional situation. India has one of the finest diplomatic corps in the world. Their expert knowledge and institutional memory can help move us to a safer lagoon.
Seventy years is enough time to tolerate Pakistan’s blackmailing. Enough is enough.