Thursday, 23 May, 2019
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Topic: Opinion polls


Exit polls: How they are conducted, their relevance & accuracy

Experts say the trickiest part of exit polls is to convert vote share into seats and this requires statistical training.
People wait with their identity cards to cast their votes for the Assembly elections, in Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh

Hung verdicts to slim NDA majority — what opinion polls have said about Lok Sabha elections

The surveys were all conducted between January and April this year and their tone changed from hung verdicts to a wafer-thin majority for the NDA.
Members of the media | Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

Why media ground reports, opinion & exit polls don’t agree with each other on elections

News reports are vital to understand political strategy & local issues, but these factors do not affect the seats tally in a big way.
A man stands outside the Bombay Stock Exchange building in Mumbai | Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

India stocks advance after opinion polls predict win for Modi-led NDA

Stocks surged after two opinion polls indicate victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition. When Modi govt first formed in 2014, Sensex rose 30%, the most since 2009.
File photo of PM Narendra Modi | PIB

Before Balakot, the BJP’s electoral prospects didn’t look too bad either

Aftermath of Pulwama and Balakot can further strengthen BJP's position unless the opposition manages to make the contest about economic issues.
File photo of PM Narendra Modi | PTI

Pollsters hate to be wrong, but they will be about BJP in 2019

Election forecast for 2019 will be a replica of 2004 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost despite his popularity ratings being way above everybody else.

On Camera

Shoppers walk through South City Mall in Kolkata | Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

Wrong to raise alarm over slowdown in India’s consumption

Consumption cannot bail out an ailing economy. It is the consequence of a good or bad economic environment, no matter which way we calculate GDP.

Is AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal also guilty of treating Muslims as an unthinking votebank?

Days after Delhi voted in the Lok Sabha elections, AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal said the Muslim vote “shifted” to the Congress at the last minute.


A Rafale fighter jet, manufactured by Dassault Aviation SA

Break-in at IAF’s Paris office handling Rafale procurement, cops probe espionage angle

The IAF's office in Paris houses the team that coordinates with Dassault Aviation on manufacture of Rafale jets and the weapons package onboard the aircraft.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi in 2014 | Commons

Pracharak Modi: The mask you see, is the man you get

India has its first leader who is unapologetic about belonging to the social and political Right. This is how Shekhar Gupta foresaw Modi’s five years in this National Interest within three months of his victory in 2014.