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Topic: Opinion polls
Experts say the trickiest part of exit polls is to convert vote share into seats and this requires statistical training.
The surveys were all conducted between January and April this year and their tone changed from hung verdicts to a wafer-thin majority for the NDA.
News reports are vital to understand political strategy & local issues, but these factors do not affect the seats tally in a big way.
Stocks surged after two opinion polls indicate victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition. When Modi govt first formed in 2014, Sensex rose 30%, the most since 2009.
Aftermath of Pulwama and Balakot can further strengthen BJP's position unless the opposition manages to make the contest about economic issues.
Election forecast for 2019 will be a replica of 2004 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost despite his popularity ratings being way above everybody else.