Iran’s nuclear journey has been long and tortuous. It began under the Shah’s regime in the 1950s to become a symbol of scientific progress and a source of nationalist pride.
While the 60-year-old’s ascension could complicate efforts to revive the JCPOA, it’s not expected to derail them because they have the blessing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) sought to restrict Iran's nuclear programme, in lieu of relief sanctions. Trump exited the deal, but Biden is now looking to bring it back.
In the pre- JCPOA period, there was a carve out for our involvement in Chabahar, on account of its contribution to facilitating trade and development effort in Afghanistan, also a declared US objective.
The oil math is skewed against the White House. The blockade has a slim chance of working. Iran can remain defiant, and China unconcerned, longer than Trump can remain solvent.
IEA projects sharp reversal from its earlier expectations, with global demand for oil in 2026 turning negative. Hormuz disruptions have pushed crude prices to $130 per barrel.
We now live in a world order that will keep shifting. India must use this window. This also means we remain disciplined enough not to be knee-jerked into reacting to what Pakistan sees as its moment in the sun.
COMMENTS