Declaration of strategic partnership by PM Modi & President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. focuses on defence coproduction & potential hydrographic collaboration in South China Sea.
The Modi govt first put all its eggs into the US basket when the unipolar moment was clearly over. It subsequently overcorrected, accommodating an aggressive China.
The oil math is skewed against the White House. The blockade has a slim chance of working. Iran can remain defiant, and China unconcerned, longer than Trump can remain solvent.
IEA projects sharp reversal from its earlier expectations, with global demand for oil in 2026 turning negative. Hormuz disruptions have pushed crude prices to $130 per barrel.
We now live in a world order that will keep shifting. India must use this window. This also means we remain disciplined enough not to be knee-jerked into reacting to what Pakistan sees as its moment in the sun.
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