India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe drought that destroyed crops & forced authorities to limit the export of some food grains.
In 1st forecast since March, World Meteorological Organisation has indicated chance of EL Nino onset, likely to 'fuel higher global temperatures', is 70-80% during July-September period.
WMO said that after 3 years of La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, there was a 60% chance that will change to El Nino, its warmer counterpart, in May-July.
Rainfall next month likely to be in the normal range over northwest & other parts. But northeast and east-central India, among others, may see below normal rain, IMD forecast says.
IMD says any effect of El Nino on monsoon will be visible only during the second half of the season, adding that it’s not necessary it will lead to a bad monsoon.
Return of El Nino may result in a weak monsoon, says private weather forecaster. IMD had said that most parts of India would experience above normal temperatures from March to May.
While the chances of an El Niño developing early in the year are small, current forecasts say there is a 55 per cent chance it could develop between June and August.
Parts of the north have been seeing unusually high temperatures over the past few days. States like Himachal and Uttarakhand are seeing 6 to 11 degrees more than normal, says IMD.
Even if the El Niño, which can cause a monsoon deficit in India, does set in as predicted, other weather phenomena could potentially mitigate its effects.
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