Reshuffling an empty deck

Vajpayee's cabinet reshuffle is not based on performance or track record but on balancing and assuaging egos and ambitions.

File photo of Atal Bihari Vajpayee with LK Advani at a protest rally in New Delhi | PTI

There is one good reason why this cabinet reshuffle was not going to be like the old Kamraj Plan in range, depth, impact and, certainly, casualties. That reason simply is that that reshuffle in the early sixties was choreographed by Kamraj as party president who was out of the government himself. Here, the party president has himself been forklifted to the cabinet, as the law minister, and he is the first one to know that that is no tribute to his oft-repeated claims of being a BA, LLB. This was an exercise by the prime minister and his deputy who have themselves been shuffling for space in an emerging new power equation. So what if, in the process, they have produced a bit of an anti-climax, or what you could describe as the Ramrajya version of the Kamraj plan, where everybody gets a bit of the Diwali mithai. In fact the more you sulk or pray, the greater your share of it, irrespective of performance or track record.

But first the substantive news. Even this thrust-and-parry-but-mostly-parry reshuffle has brought in some significant political messages in its wake. It is the first time in our democratic history that a successor has been (more or less) named during the reign of a prime minister. That this has been done exactly halfway through the tenure of the government is even more significant. Jog your memory a bit for precedents. Nehru did not name, or even indicate, a preferred successor even in his distracted post-1962 phase, not even after his first stroke at Bhubaneswar. Right through his last five years in power, the biggest political question was, after Nehru, who?

Shastri never had the time to think of a successor. Indira Gandhi was given one, in Morarji Desai, who the party old-timers thought would function both as a successor for the future and a regent for now. She destroyed him before he could catch his breath. Subsequently, her own style, as that of her son’s, left no scope for anybody to think of himself stepping in the same sandals. Poor Pranab Mukherjee had a shortlived daydream of sorts after Mrs Gandhi’s assassination in 1984 and paid for it with a sizeable sentence in the wilderness.

The deputy prime minister’s position has so far been a political joke, and it hasn’t helped that it has also gone to sulking old men who’ve evoked more derision from history than respect or awe. But this one is different. Even before his elevation to the post, Advani was the closest number two any Indian prime minister has had in terms of power, responsibility and, even though it might go against conventional wisdom a bit, in terms of shared mutual respect with him.

Deputy Prime Minister Advani, halfway through this government’s tenure when it is quite clear that Vajpayee won’t be leading the party into the next election, is the clearest possible declaration by not only the BJP, but even the NDA, as to who their candidate for prime minister will then be. This is unprecedented not just in Indian politics but also in our society, where we even appoint our cricket captains routinely for no more than a series, or sometimes for half a series at a time.

[Dropcap]T[Dropcap]he Deputy PM’s position has so far been a political joke going to sulking old men who’ve evoked more derision than respect. But this one is different. A successor has been (more or less) named during the reign of a PM. Unprecedented not just in our politics but also in our society Would this now mean a smooth transition, with Vajpayee gradually but systematically turning over power and the centre stage to Advani in the run-up to the elections? Or would this mean the prime minister’s authority receding so rapidly as to make him a lame duck far too early in the tenure of this government — the election is still more than two years away? And if that is the trend — as might be the case, given the buzz in the capital of Advani’s stamp on the new cabinet — how would the two wily old men ensure a factional war doesn’t break out between the loyalists of one and that of the other?

The fact is, while they may deny with great vehemence any tension between them, this is certainly not true of their favourites. They may be the best of buddies but the existence of their rival camps in the power structure is not denied by anybody, least of all by their respective camp followers. How will they manage transition amid this confusion of conflicting ambitions and insecurities? On balance, however, it is better that a succession has been charted out. This forecloses all lobbying and bloodshed that may have taken place on the eve of the next election, when each NDA constituent would have felt free to have a say in that choice. Now that has been pre-empted and their acceptance of Advani is implicit.

The only other change of consequence is Jaswant Singh’s walk across Vijay Chowk into the North Block. He knows better than anybody else that he has a reputation to keep, for performance as well as fair-mindedness. At 64, he is also the youngest of the likely choices for the top job in the future and he is certainly not going to jeopardise that by getting caught up in corporate wars now. Hence his opening statement of ‘‘I am not a policeman…’’ But hereabouts the good news ends.

Please check all political history, also the Guinness Book or Limca Book of Records. Is there any other precedent of a deputy prime minister anywhere also holding charge of the coal ministry? That Advani has to keep it warm for Mamata is not the story. It symbolises the larger problem where a whole Cabinet reshuffle has taken place, based not on performance or track record but on balancing and assuaging egos and ambitions or shutting up some professional sulkers. Which great democracy has swaps of the kind that has been effected here between Jaswant and Yashwant? Can you ever expect Colin Powell and Alan Greenspan to swap jobs?

[Dropcap]T[Dropcap]here is an old Punjabi saying: those who are useless in Lahore are also useless in Peshawar. Has Jaswant been rewarded for his performance in the MEA, or punished? Ditto for Yashwant. If they were both doing a brilliant job, why were they moved? If both weren’t, why were they not fired? There is a marvellous old Punjabi saying: those who are useless in Lahore are also useless in Peshawar.

The prime minister has obviously not heard this. How is anybody to explain this except indecision, lack of spine, or plain old skulduggery. Has Jaswant been rewarded for his performance in the MEA, or punished? Ditto for Yashwant. If they were both doing a brilliant job, why were they moved midway? If both weren’t, why were they not fired? If one of them wasn’t, why has he got the other’s job? It is the prime minister’s judgement call and it is obvious he has shied away from it.

Then how is one to explain Sahib Singh as labour minister just because he sulked for two and a half years? The next stage of economic reforms depends mostly on what we can do with the labour law, so is Sahib Singh the best ally to have there? What justifies Shatrughan Sinha getting health except that he sulked too and even produced a play that was more in the nature of a job application on stage? Then Sharad Yadav, who blocked you for so long on labour reform after ruining civil aviation privatisation, to food where Shanta Kumar had just initiated a fine process of change? Jana Krishnamurthy as law minister just after he had proved to be such a crashing failure as party president? One who is useless in Lahore has once again been shifted to Peshawar!

You can laugh if you so wish but these are serious issues. Law, labour, food and health are crucial to economic reform and our future. So is coal and mines and if Mamata gets it you can kiss all reform there goodbye. There are therefore two ways in which you can assess this reshuffle. One is that it is a purely cynical, political exercise underpinned by patronage and political manoeuvring. The second, again, that it is a cynical, political exercise underpinned by patronage and also the nonchalant belief that all these people, all these ministries, do not matter. That all decisions, from going to war with Pakistan to privatising mining industry to modernising our courts to diversifying our agriculture to fighting the spread of HIV to rewriting new school syllabi, will be done by the prime minister, his deputy and a couple of others. So how do the rest of them matter? They can keep their bungalows and white ambassadors and go to sleep.