The BJP has 104 of the 222 MLAs elected in the 12 May election, and has been given 15 days by governor Vajubhai Vala to prove his majority.

Bengaluru: B.S. Yeddyurappa was sworn in as the chief minister of Karnataka Thursday, but the BJP’s real challenge begins only now.

The BJP has 104 of the 222 MLAs elected in the 12 May election, and has been given 15 days by governor Vajubhai Vala to prove majority. In their letter to the governor, the BJP had claimed to also have the support of an independent, but they need over 111 MLAs as things stand now.

Here are the different scenarios that can pan out in the coming days:

Scenario#1

The BJP might try to lure as many disgruntled MLAs as possible from the Congress and the JD(S), which have 78 and 37 legislators, respectively.

This is where the so-called ‘Operation Kamala 2.0’ will come into play, and some horse-trading might occur with offers of money and power. Party president Amit Shah has been in action, and many JD(S) and Congress MLA-elects have reportedly been receiving calls from senior BJP leaders, sources in both parties have claimed.

Scenario#2

The BJP might also explore the option of getting eight to 10 MLAs to resign, which would bring down the effective strength of the assembly and thus the halfway mark, giving the party a clear lead.

Scenario #3

If Yeddyurappa is unable to prove his majority, he can take his place, for a second time, among chief ministers who had to resign within a month of being sworn in.

In 2006, the BJP and the JD(S) had joined hands for a coalition based on rotational chief ministership where the latter’s H.D. Kumaraswamy was to yield the chair to Yeddyurappa after 20 months. When time came, however, Kumarawamy refused to vacate, causing the coalition to collapse.

After a stint of President’s rule, the two came together for an uneasy truce and Yeddyurappa was sworn in as chief minister, but differences over ministerial berths led Kumaraswamy to withdraw support within a week, which cost Yeddyurappa the CM’s chair.

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