UP bypolls: It is not just a vote against Yogi but also against Modi

A file photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Yogi Adityanath | PTI

These by-elections may effectively set the tone for 2019, more than the recent BJP successes in the three states in the northeast.

New Delhi: The Samajwadi Party – or actually, the SP-BSP combine, since the BSP extended support to SP candidates – has won both the Lok Sabha bypolls in BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, now being effectively run by his son and heir-apparent Tejashwi Yadav, with Lalu in jail after being convicted in fodder scam cases, has won the Araria Lok Sabha and Jehanabad assembly seats, with the ruling BJP managing a consolation win in Bhabua assembly constituency.

Some may say, especially those in the BJP, that these were only by-elections and won’t have any impact on the Narendra Modi-led BJP’s plans to retain power at the Centre in 2019. The fact is that these by-elections may effectively set the tone for 2019, more than the recent BJP successes in the three states in the northeast.

Should BJP be worried?

Yes. And, knowing how Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah function, it would be wrong to say they won’t be worried. Both believe in winning, and the results will worry them, because of the three Lok Sabha seats it couldn’t win Wednesday, two were held by its key leaders – Gorakhpur by UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Phulpur by former state BJP chief and current deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya.

The BJP had won each of these seats by over three lakh votes in 2014, and its failure to retain them, with general elections just a year away, should serve as a wake-up call for the party.

The emergence of the 28-year-old Tejashwi, born years after Modi and Shah had gained political stature, as the face of the RJD, and the fact that voters in Bihar seem have some kind of sympathy for the jailed Lalu’s party, should also worry the BJP. But, more importantly, the Bihar results show that, at least on the ground, the JD(U)-BJP alliance isn’t working as well as the JD(U)-RJD alliance that won the last assembly elections.

Is it a vote against Modi or Yogi?

BJP leaders are quick to say that Prime Minister Narendra Modi shouldn’t be blamed for the defeat, for he didn’t even campaign in the two seats. However, few will buy this excuse, since every panchayat or civic body poll victory is credited to Modi and celebrated as a vote for his government’s “good performance”. He is also an MP from Uttar Pradesh, Varanasi to be precise, and defeats in these seats that lie not far from his constituency will take some sheen of his aura of invincibility. He will have realised that loud words alone will not help – but will actually hinder the BJP’s chances – unless they’re followed by performance on the ground.

As for Yogi, the defeats, about a year after the spectacular performance in the assembly elections, will hurt his national ambitions, as well as ensure that the knives could soon be out for him within the party. Already, his detractors are attributing the defeat to the fact that Thakurs/Rajputs – the caste to which he belongs – are the dominant caste in the government, and officers from this caste are getting favoured over others in the state.

It also doesn’t need much reminding that he wasn’t the first or commonly-acceptable nominee for the post of CM – he forced the party’s hand to get the chair. But now, he will be under the scanner, and may not be allowed the free hand that he’s got so used to.

Has the Congress (again) come a cropper?

Yes and no. Yes, because its performance in the elections isn’t anything worth talking about. And no, because notwithstanding what Rahul Gandhi’s detractors feel, the fact was that it was a smart move – many say taken in consultation with the SP-BSP – by the Congress to field a Brahmin candidate in Phulpur, a way to ensure the division of upper-caste votes, with the BJP nominee also a Brahmin.

Having tasted victory, will SP-BSP bonhomie last till 2019?

The general elections are a year away, and a year in politics is a very, very long time. But, both parties are aware, especially in light of today’s results, that unless they work together, the Modi juggernaut could be unstoppable in 2019. Ditto for the other regional players.

But, division of seats in 2019 between the BSP, SP and Congress – if the grand old party decides to join the bandwagon – will be a tricky task, one that could expose the faultlines and even make them go separate ways. But, the prospect of defeating BJP together, as opposed to the possibility of being defeated alone, could prove to be the super glue that binds them together.

Will these results impact the outcome in the Karnataka assembly polls?

Certainly. Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab showed that the BJP could be defeated soundly. Under the leadership of Siddaramaiah, the Congress in Karnataka could actually get the better of an aggressive BJP in the state.

The results also prove that Hindutva isn’t helping the BJP much, what with mounting job losses and the continuing aftershocks of demonetisation making things difficult for the party. After today, the Congress, and not the BJP, will have the upper hand going into the Karnataka polls.