Most exit polls had called Telangana right and predicted the tight race for Madhya Pradesh, but there were several misses too.
New Delhi: Some got it spot on, others not so much. Several agencies released exit polls when voting ended 8 December, in order to gauge the mood with which voters turned up for the recent assembly elections in five states, but the results Tuesday threw up quite a few surprises.
Almost all the agencies had foreseen the stellar win of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), but one local channel called it closer than all else.
The dead heat that Madhya Pradesh turned out to be – with its constant shift between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress throughout Tuesday – came as no surprise either, with most pollsters having predicted a close contest. The predictions were spot on for Mizoram, the Congress’ last citadel in the northeast, as well.
ThePrint analyses the different exit polls Tuesday in light of the results, to see who got it right and who missed the mark. Here are the results.
Also read: Congress gears up to face the last election hurdle — the chief ministerial race
Rajasthan
As of Tuesday evening, the Congress was leading or had won in 99 of Rajasthan’s 200 seats, and the BJP in 73.
ABP News-CSDS called the elections the closest, having predicted 83 seats for the BJP and 101 for the Congress.
Republic TV-CVoter had predicted 52-68 seats for the BJP and 129-145 for the Congress.
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat, the second of the two exit polls conducted by journalist Arnab Goswami’s channel, had pegged the number of seats between 85 and 103 for the BJP, and 81-101 for the Congress.
Chhattisgarh
In Chhattisgarh, several exit polls went wrong, with the Congress appearing set for a thumping majority as of Tuesday evening. At the time of publishing, the ruling BJP looked set to win just 16 of the state’s 90 seats, with the Congress ahead in 68.
The exit poll conducted by India Today-Axis My India was the closest, predicting 21-31 seats for the BJP and 55-65 for the Congress.
Republic TV-CVoter had estimated the BJP would win 35-43 seats, and the Congress 40-50.
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat was far off the mark, predicting 40-48 seats for the BJP and 37-43 for Congress.
ABP News-CSDS had predicted a clear BJP victory with a tally of 52 for the party and 35 for the Congress, as had India TV-CNX, with a total of 42-50 for the BJP and 32-38 for the Congress.
Also read: Exit polls were spot on when Telangana, Rajasthan, MP, Mizoram & Chhattisgarh last voted
Madhya Pradesh
By Tuesday evening, after swinging back and forth all day, the Congress was seen having won or leading in 112 of the state’s 230 seats, with the ruling BJP ahead in 111.
The exit poll conducted by Republic TV-CVoter was close, having predicted 90-116 seats for the BJP and 110-126 for the Congress.
The findings of the Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat survey were in the same vein, with a prediction of 108-128 seats for the BJP and 95-112 for the Congress.
ABP News-CSDS had predicted 126 seats for the Congress and 94 for the BJP.
Telangana
K. Chandrashekar Rao looks set for a second straight term as Telangana chief minister with the TRS demolishing the opposition by notching a likely tally of 87 of the 119 assembly seats.
The party with the second biggest total was the Congress, which looked set to win 19, while the BJP won just one.
The exit poll conducted by TV9 Telugu-AARA had estimated that the TRS would win 75-85 seats, saying the Congress and the BJP would get 25-35 seats and 2-3 seats, respectively.
Republic TV-CVoter had predicted 48-60 seats for the TRS, 47-59 for the Congress, and 4-7 for the BJP.
The News Nation survey had pegged the TRS’ tally at 53-57, predicting 51-55 for the Congress and 1-5 for the BJP.
The NEWS X-Neta survey had estimated 57 seats for the TRS, 46 for the Congress, and six for the BJP.
Mizoram
At the time of publishing, the Mizo National Front (MNF) had won 26 of the state’s 40 seats, with the Congress winning five and the BJP one.
Republic TV-CVoter had predicted 16-20 seats for the MNF and 14-18 for the Congress.
Times Now-CNX had predicted 18 seats for the MNF and 16 for the Congress.