Chennai: In a stunning political debut, the actor Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is leading in 110 of 234 seats, just short of the 118 majority mark, according to trends data released by the Election Commission at 1 pm. The DMK is leading in 48 constituencies. The AIADMK is ahead in 57 seats.
According to leads declared by the Election Commission, DMK ally Congress is ahead in four seats, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) in one seat and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) in two seats.
The DMK-led SPA looks unlikely to match its 2021 tally of 159 seats, when the DMK alone had won 133 with a vote share of 37–38 per cent, against the AIADMK-led front’s 75.
On the other side, the BJP is leading in one of the 27 seats it contested. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) were ahead in five and one seat, respectively.
The TVK, launched in 2024, contested 233 of the 234 seats, with Vijay standing from Perambur and Trichy East constituencies. TVK’s entry converted what has historically been a bipolar Dravidian contest into a three-cornered fight.
A record voter turnout of approximately 85 per cent was recorded in the election.
The contest
DMK’s campaign was built around the “Dravidian model of governance”, anchored in its record on industrialisation, infrastructure and welfare schemes, and an attack on the AIADMK-BJP combine on delimitation, Hindi imposition and federalism.
The AIADMK-led alliance in the state, under party chief and former CM Edappadi K. Palaniswami, attacked DMK on dynasty politics, corruption allegations, law and order and women’s safety. It has promised employment opportunities, and infrastructure developments and better safety. The BJP ran a parallel campaign combining its national narrative with state-specific outreach.
TVK’s Vijay, an actor before his political foray, drew large crowds, particularly among urban youth, positioning the party against what he called the “corruption and empty promises” of both Dravidian majors. He also pitched TVK’s platform of anti-corruption governance, youth employment, women’s safety and empowerment, education reform and farmer loan waivers.
Political analyst V.M. Sunil Kumar told ThePrint that the absence of consolidated opposition had worked in DMK’s favour over the past five years.
“M.K. Stalin (chief minister) did not get a good opposition from any party in the last many years because AIADMK was itself fragmented and TVK lacked strong grounds to build on anti-incumbency against the party,” he said.
“There is no build-up of propaganda on anti-incumbency against DMK in the last five years. While Vijay attacked the DMK on certain grounds, they did not have strong ground evidence to make it an election issue,” Kumar said adding: “They do not want to respond to Vijay or position him as an opponent.”
What the results mean
A DMK return to power is expected to trigger swift rollout of its welfare commitments under the party’s so-called Dravidian Model 2.0. Key promises include doubling monthly assistance under Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam to Rs 2,000 for more than 1.3 crore women heads of households, introducing Rs 8,000 ‘Illatharasi; coupons for homemakers to purchase household appliances, extending the Chief Minister’s breakfast scheme up to Class 8 students, and enhancing student stipends under the Pudhumai Penn and Tamil Pudhalvan schemes.
Kumar said the party would move to deepen its hold among women and youth. “Once re-elected, DMK will prioritise policies on women and youth based welfare policies since they are gradually understanding that women and youngsters need to find their way to politics. In order to meet the needs of the changing political scenario, especially after Vijay, DMK sees that public is looking for a change. DMK would rework the party structure, fight against the nepotism accusation and create a path for youngsters to enter politics,” he said.
A significant reduction of seats—particularly to TVK or the AIADMK-led alliance—would likely be read as voter fatigue and a demand for alternatives beyond traditional welfare delivery.
The 2021 election had ended a decade of AIADMK rule; 2026 results are expected to redefine Tamil Nadu’s political landscape for years.
(Edited by Prerna Madan)
The southern state politics and especially TN politics is very much influenced by film stars. But Vijay will have big and strong opposition if he goes solo. The voters there trust film stars more than political stars.