MUMBAI: The Shiv Sena could be headed for a split if party chief Uddhav Thackeray decides not to support the BJP in forming an alliance government in Maharashtra.
Highly reliable sources in the Shiv Sena told ThePrint that at least 24 of its newly-elected MLAs are weighing the possibility of joining the BJP if Thackeray decides to stay out of power in Maharashtra.
Although five days have gone by since the results to the Assembly polls were declared on 23 October, there is still no sign of government formation in the state.
The BJP, with 105 of the 288 seats, has been elected as the single largest party but is unable to form the government due to ally Shiv Sena’s adamant stand on a rotational tenure for the chief minister.
The Sena, with 56 seats, wants the BJP to give a written assurance that it will adhere to the 50:50 formula that it claims was discussed between the two parties during the seat-sharing talks ahead of this year’s Lok Sabha polls.
Outgoing chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, however, said his party had given no such assurance to the Shiv Sena.
The stalemate has led to growing anger among the MLAs of both the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The BJP is angry as it is unable to find sizeable support from the other parties.
The Shiv Sena MLAs are angry as they are well aware that their chief will have to back down from his stand and support the BJP to form the government. The key to power lies in the hands of Thackeray, a fact he is well aware of.
“Why take such a grandiose stand when Uddhavji himself knows that ultimately we have to go with the BJP,” a senior Shiv Sena leader who was a minister in the previous government told ThePrint. “If Uddhavji decides to stay out of power, at least 24 MLAs will join the BJP. We are not in the mood to sit in Opposition.”
In 2014, after the BJP-Sena government was formed, a sizeable group of Shiv Sena MLAs were similarly ready to join the BJP, barely a month into the establishment of the Maharashtra government. “We were very clear then, we are very clear now,” said the Shiv Sena leader who is likely to lead the rebellion.
Also read: CM from BJP with a Shiv Sena deputy — the 1995 formula that can solve Maharashtra standoff
Little sympathy for Shiv Sena
There seems to be little sympathy for the Shiv Sena as the party has behaved like an opposition when in government in the state. This time it appears to be sticking to its election slogan — “Heech thee waell (This is the time)”. The fact that the BJP has won fewer seats than its 2014 Assembly election tally is also a good reason for the Thackerays to hold onto their stand.
Sources in the Shiv Sena say that the win of Aditya Thackeray, the first of the Thackerays to contest and win an election, has buoyed the party and galvanised its senior leadership to stake claim to the chief minister’s post.
Having cleared his stand at a press conference after the election results, Thackeray is now letting his men do all the talking. Through a series of statements and media interactions by various party MLAs and editorials in Saamna — the party mouthpiece — the Thackerays have conveyed to the BJP that they are willing to wait.
Since the new government has to be sworn in by 10 November, there is enough time for the talks to reach a conclusive end.
In the past, the late Pramod Mahajan was the fire-fighter for BJP. Whenever a situation arose between both the saffron parties, he was the party emissary who called on the late Balasaheb Thackeray at the latter’s residence Matoshree. A visit by Mahajan usually calmed down the late Balasaheb. After Mahajan passed away, senior BJP minister Nitin Gadkari had donned the emissary hat.
Also read: Shiv Sena’s Saamana editorial talks of BJP’s ‘politics of arrogance’, praises Sharad Pawar
The Fadnavis factor
For the Thackerays, Fadnavis is a “light-weight” and they are not too keen on dealing with him. BJP president and Home Minister Amit Shah has visited Matoshree twice in the past and Sainiks had celebrated the visits because it had given Thackeray the upper hand in the meetings.
On Tuesday, Fadnavis insisted that official and unofficial talks are on with the Shiv Sena and the BJP is confident of forming the next government in Maharashtra.
Prodded to answer questions on the assurances given to the Shiv Sena, the chief minister revealed that during the seat-sharing discussions during this year’s Lok Sabha polls, the Shiv Sena had proposed to the BJP that the chief minister’s post be shared between the two parties for two and a half years each. The talks on this issue were inconclusive then, the outgoing CM said. “No decision was taken in front of me,” Fadnavis said. “Any discussion on that between Amitbhai Shah and Uddhavji Thackeray is known to them only. Only they can decide on it.”
The outgoing chief minister had met the Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshiyari Monday but he was followed by senior Shiv Sena leader and former minister, Diwakar Raote, who too held a closed-door meeting with the Governor. This has led to speculation that the Shiv Sena is planning a political coup along with Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Independents to stake claim to form the government.
“The Shiv Sena will not accept anything less than the 50:50 formula,” Raote told the media after his meeting with the Governor. “We want it in writing from the BJP that they will give the Shiv Sena the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years.”
Speaking to ThePrint, writer and political commentator Prakash Akolkar said, “This is payback time for Uddhav. He has realised that the BJP cannot form a government without his party. He is paying the BJP back for all the humiliation they have heaped on him in the last five years.”
“The Shiv Sena MLAs want power. So Uddhav will have to choose power. If he does not, the Shiv Sena will split,” added Akolkar, whose book Jai Maharashtra is a biography on the Shiv Sena.
Also read: Cut in the mould of PM Modi, CM Devendra Fadnavis is now a leader in his own right
Haima Deshpande is a freelance journalist.
looks like SS going down soon
All the BJP allies appear to maintain loud mouths, some dignified others not so. Unless SS plays the ball it will be an end of the Uti forever, can the SS withstand that ? Talk of other options but not in a mood to to exercise, is ridiculous to say the least. Besides all those who have been in politics as business should be a worried lot with clean Modi at the top and the likes Patel, Pawar, Kundra etc. etc in Queue.
There was no government in J&K before Mehbooba became CM for 4 months, if the same happens in Maharashtra the consequences can be very interesting. With Hariyana out of the way the time appears on the side of BJP. Forget the damage and the delay caused to the parties, it will be setting back the governance, for seeking power beyond one’s share thinking out of box is necessary that being stubborn.
If that happens, won’t be surprised. Usual practice of BJP, a party with difference, making backdoor entry.
Are you trying to say other parties are different? In your state in west Bengal, the CM is encouraging illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and building her vote banks. Would you call it a ‘front door entry’? Politicians are in politics to make money for themselves and their fourteen generations, and they will try every crooked method to get power because power brings money.