Hyderabad: Even as ally Jana Sena Party (JSP) leader Pawan Kalyan sprang his unilateral decision to tie up with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) for next year’s Andhra Pradesh assembly and Lok Sabha elections upon the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Thursday, the latter’s reaction has been considered and careful.
While none of its leaders, including Andhra Pradesh unit chief Daggubati Purandeswari, reacted publicly to the development, the state unit sent out a statement hours later, saying, “Alliances are under the purview of the national leadership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief J.P. Nadda will decide and clarity would only come from the Centre.”
“As of now, the BJP’s alliance with the JSP in Andhra Pradesh continues,” the short statement in Telugu concluded.
Pawan announced his decision after a 45-minute meeting with TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu inside the Rajahmundry Central Prison where the former chief minister has been lodged since last Sunday as an accused in the Rs 371 crore skill development scam.
The TDP-JSP alliance was on the cards for about a year now, with both the leaders having met a few times, taken supportive stands and having made sympathetic statements when either one of them had a run in with Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy’s Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) regime.
The announcement of the alliance, analysts have been saying, will give the JSP-TDP combine ample time to strengthen their electoral understanding, arrive at seat sharing and campaign vigorously.
However, the JSP is upbeat about the possibility of an alliance with both the TDP and the BJP. “Our leader Pawan Kalyan has excellent relations with both (Amit) Shah and (PM) Modi. His only objective is that anti-Jagan votes should not split. We are confident that the BJP would also join the TDP-JSP alliance,” party programme committee coordinator Kalyanam Siva Srinivasa Rao (KK) said to ThePrint Saturday.
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Where does this leave BJP?
While the BJP central leadership remains undecided, state leaders mention how the JSP hasn’t severed ties with them. “Pawan said he is allying with the TDP but has not snapped ties with us. So, we will wait for our leadership’s decision on how to proceed for the elections,” Lanka Dinakar, spokesperson and political feedback pramukh of the state BJP, said to ThePrint Friday.
A central functionary said to ThePrint, “We are hardly a factor in Andhra politics. Our top leaders find the TDP an unreliable ally but we can’t win any seat without being a part of an alliance. (CM) Jagan Mohan Reddy has been a reliable ally but he won’t join the NDA. He will be upset if we go with the TDP. You never know, we may need him in 2024 after the elections. We have a difficult choice to make. We still have six months to decide…let’s see.”
The three parties did come together in 2014 though the JSP did not contest. Naidu and Narendra Modi, the BJP’s PM candidate, addressed joint rallies in Vizag and other places, displaying a strong camaraderie.
In the assembly elections, the TDP secured 102 and the BJP four of the 175 seats in the assembly while the combine grabbed 17 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats, including two by the BJP. Post results, the TDP joined the NDA government at the Centre, while Naidu accommodated two of the four BJP MLAs into his cabinet.
However, the TDP exited the NDA in March 2018 over the issue of special category status to Andhra Pradesh. The exit was rancorous.
In an unbridled straight attack on Modi, famous Telugu film star, Naidu’s brother-in-law and TDP legislator Nandamuri Balakrishna had reportedly warned in April 2018 that “Bharat-maata won’t tolerate you anymore”, using words like “gaddar” and “namak-haram” in broken Hindi. The event was the then CM’s day-long hunger strike, in Vijayawada over the special status demand.
A month later, TDP activists allegedly pelted stones at then BJP chief Amit Shah’s convoy in Tirupati.
As the acrimony precipitated, Shah, in his 2019 election rallies in Andhra Pradesh, termed Naidu as a “U-turn chief minister” and declared that “the NDA doors are forever closed for the TDP”.
Subsequently, the three parties contested separately. In the Lok Sabha, the YSRCP won 22 of 25 seats and TDP, three. The BJP drew a blank, securing less than one percent votes. In the assembly, too, the YSRCP swept the polls, winning 151 of 175 seats. The BJP drew a blank again, securing less than one percent vote share, according to EC data, while the JSP bagged one seat in the assembly but secured over five percent votes.
Against this backdrop, the BJP renewed its friendship with the JSP in January 2020.
BJP & Pawan Kalyan
A senior state BJP leader said that the party calculated that a majority of 15-20 winnable seats were in the Godavari belt and Uttarandhra, where the politically significant Kapus are in large numbers. Film star Pawan, who is also a Kapu, has a massive fan following, especially among the youth.
“The idea was that both parties will grow in a synergistic mode, which will not be the scenario if the overbearing TDP is involved. Our calculation was that the BJP-JSP combine could win about 15-20 assembly seats and play the kingmaker role in the event of a hung assembly and grow further in the state there on,” the leader said to ThePrint.
However, state BJP leaders admit the arrangement did not work well. “There were hardly any joint agitations, rallies over public issues to strengthen the partnership. I had requested Pawan for his support in the MLC polls held in March, or at least a statement in my favour. None came,” a former BJP MLC told ThePrint on condition of anonymity.
The JSP votes are also believed to have played a major contribution in the TDP’s surprise win in three MLC constituencies, offering a morale booster for Naidu after continuous electoral losses since 2019.
One of the factors alienating Pawan from the BJP is the widely perceived notion of understanding between the BJP and the YSRCP, with the latter supporting the Centre’s initiatives, legislations.
A JSP leader pointed that the state BJP unit, “with its internal discords, former chief Somu Veerraju’s reluctance (towards active involvement with the JSP), has become a hindrance in successful partnership”.
“When Pawan asked for a joint road map (in March 2022), the BJP leadership responded positively but the state unit was not forthcoming in fighting the YSRCP together. However, now, Pawan has good relations with the present chief Purandeswari,” another JSP leader said.
Meanwhile, a BJP leader said “Pawan’s direct dealing with New Delhi has left no room for synchronisation at state level”.
A section of the state BJP, however, seems open to the idea of an alliance with the JSP-TDP as there is no other way except going it alone, which might not yield any seats, two BJP leaders, including the former legislator cited above, said. On ideological lines, the BJP cannot go with Jagan given his tacit support for conversions etc and Jagan would also be disinclined as it would damage his strong minority vote bank, they added.
“Jagan wants protection (in the CBI’s DA cases etc), not electoral support. Anyway, the final decision is up to our top leaders,” said the former legislator.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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