Jabalpur/Mandla (Madhya Pradesh): The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost the Madhya Pradesh assembly polls to the Congress by a whisker last December.
It was an election that could have gone either way, given how close the numbers were and the cliffhanger it turned out to be — in a House of 230, the Congress won just five more seats than the BJP.
Several factors, however, helped propel the Congress towards the halfway mark and key among them was the party’s greatly-enhanced performance in the crucial Mahakoshal region.
The tribal-dominated region, otherwise a BJP stronghold, saw some serious upheaval in December, with the Congress gaining a number of seats. It won 21 seats in this region, up from 13 in 2013. The BJP, meanwhile, saw a sharp dip from 24 to 10.
Mahakoshal, with 38 assembly segments, consists of eight districts — Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Katni, Balaghat, Narsinghpur, Seoni, Mandla and Dindori.
Chief Minister and Congress leader Kamal Nath is from this region, specifically from Chhindwara.
Of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, six are in this region: Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Balaghat, Mandla, Shahdol and Betul. Of these, the BJP won five in 2014 while the Congress won one (Chhindwara).
The first five seats vote Monday, while Betul will vote 6 May. The outcome of the election in Madhya Pradesh will be determined to a significant extent by the performances of both parties here.
The question, therefore, is whether the BJP has regained its grip over the area or is the Congress maintaining its 2018 momentum.
Brand Modi
The BJP’s losses in the assembly polls were due to a variety of reasons — disenchantment with the three-term BJP government in the state, a focused and sustained campaign by the Congress, as well as a range of local factors.
This election, however, seems to be centred on the PM, with several voters rallying behind this brand in Mahakoshal capital Jabalpur and Mandla, which serve as a microcosm of the larger region.
“Modi” is a buzzword, and, in many places, overrides all other factors. If this sentiment actually translates to tangibles in terms of votes, brand Modi could give the BJP the much-needed edge here.
“We want Modi. His work has been very good,” Ram Yadav of Bijadandi, Mandla, told ThePrint.
“Whether it is his schemes like rural housing for the poor, Ayushman Bharat or Ujjwala, or his steps to reduce corruption. Even in terms of international relations, he has done very well,” he added.
His friend Rajkumar Panwar believes the Modi factor can reverse the 2018 trend in Mahakoshal.
“There is a Modi wave, people want to vote for him,” he said. “So, the Congress gains in the assembly polls here can be easily reversed.”
Several others echo this sentiment. The Modi government’s schemes, particularly in rural areas, seem to have resonated on the ground. But, more importantly, the PM has struck a chord with voters, including some who voted for the Congress in the state polls but plan to switch to the BJP in the Lok Sabha election.
Hansraj Kureel of Jabalpur city is one such voter. He supported the Congress in December, but is “unhappy with their work and, hence, will vote for Modi”.
The separation of state and the Centre, meanwhile, is unambiguous in the minds of several voters. State elections, they say, is more about choosing an immediate representative like their MLA. In Madhya Pradesh, there was also fatigue with the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government.
The Centre, meanwhile, seems like a different ballgame and, for many, amounts to choosing a prime minister. To that effect, several don’t seem to mind leaving behind the hard times they faced following demonetisation and the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
Some voters believe Modi can “protect the nation”, others admire his work, some claim he has made things “more systematic and less corrupt”, while others still simply don’t see any reason to not give Modi another chance.
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BJP’s trump card
Whatever be the grounds, the Modi factor is looming large here, something even the BJP is relying heavily on.
One mostly spots campaign material and hoardings with just Modi’s face and the party’s slogan – “Phir ek baar, Modi sarkar (once again, a Modi government)”.
Party workers, while campaigning on the ground, evoke “Modiji” and his “chhavi (image)” more than the state leadership or even the candidate of a given area. This trick, the party hopes, will work for it, given the PM’s goodwill.
“No reason is required for us wanting to see Modi back as PM. Modi is Modi, there is nobody else like him in the country,” said Yashwant Sonwani of Babaiha village in Mandla.
The Congress angle
For the Congress, gains in this region went a long way in catapulting it to power in the 2018 polls. But for several voters, its recent initiatives and promises have not seemed very convincing.
The two key factors the Congress is relying on in these polls in the state are its farm loan waiver scheme as well as the proposed minimum income support scheme NYAY (Nyuntam Aay Yojana).
With both, however, there is one issue. Voters are yet to feel the impact of the farm loan waiver aimed at covering around 35 lakh farmers. And with the announcement of NYAY coming just before polls, it has not entirely been absorbed on the ground.
Voters like Uma Shankar Yadav of Mandla or Vikas Kumar of Jabalpur, for instance, claim that they were excited about the loan waiver but haven’t benefited yet. NYAY, they say, is something they have heard of only in the news, and are unsure of what it would entail.
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Not all rosy for BJP
Not everyone in Mahakoshal, however, is as happy with the BJP. The minority communities want to rally behind the Congress and, besides that, there are voters who continue to feel irked about demonetisation and the unfulfilled promise of bringing back black money.
For them, giving the Congress a shot at power in the Centre is the preferred option.
But the bigger problem for the BJP could prove to be itself. Several voters in this region say they voted for the Congress in the assembly polls because they were tired of BJP workers and their “high-handedness”. This complaint remains.
The predicament for them is whether this factor outweighs all else, including the PM’s popularity.
More importantly, infighting within the BJP in the Mahakoshal region could prove to be its undoing. For instance, the sitting BJP MP from Balaghat, Bodh Singh Bhagat, is now contesting as an Independent after being denied a ticket by the party.
This is a seat the BJP hasn’t lost since 1998, but, with this rebellion, even the cadre is split.
In the Shahdol constituency, BJP MP Gyan Singh has been unhappy about the candidature of Himadri Singh (previously with the Congress) and his supporters could dampen the party’s prospects.
The big question for the BJP in Mahakoshal, therefore, is whether it can claw its way back into the region riding on brand Modi, and overshadowing its vulnerabilities.
For the Congress, meanwhile, retaining the momentum in this region is of great significance if it wants to trump the BJP in the state.