Kamal Nath’s MP govt survives for now but ‘BJP hasn’t given up on Operation Kamal’

Although BJP has officially denied any involvement, party sources say they had planned the operation to topple the MP govt weeks ago.

File photo of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath | Commons

New Delhi: The Kamal Nath-led Congress government in Madhya Pradesh continues to be on edge even though the party Wednesday managed to ‘retrieve’ eight of its MLAs who had allegedly been brought to a Gurgaon hotel by the BJP in a midnight operation. Four Congress MLAs allegedly flown to an undisclosed location in Karnataka are yet to be traced.

In a 228-member assembly, excluding two vacancies (the incumbents passed away), the Congress has 114 members and enjoys the support of seven Independents and one Samajwadi Party (SP) and two Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLAs. The BJP has 107 MLAs.

Although the BJP has officially denied any involvement, blaming the purported rebellion by MLAs on internal bickering in the Congress, party sources told ThePrint that they had planned the operation weeks ago.

Days before Rajya Sabha polls

The alleged coup attempt comes days before elections are held for 55 seats in the Rajya Sabha, including three in Madhya Pradesh, on 26 March. Of the three seats up for grabs, two are with the BJP and one with the Congress.

The Rajya Sabha polls are an indirect election where MLAs elect representatives to the Council of States. 

A few months ago, Leader of the Opposition in the assembly Gopal Bhargava said in Bhopal that the BJP could “pull down this government in 24 hours… we are only waiting for a signal from the high command”.

Sources in the BJP said the high command had been waiting for the right time to strike in Madhya Pradesh, where it lost the 2018 assembly polls by a whisker.

According to the sources, the party’s patience had come to an end after its successive defeat in two states, Jharkhand and Delhi.

“The BJP is only short of seven seats and if a few MLAs are coming on board, why should we wait until the next assembly election?” said one leader. 

Another BJP leader said the party couldn’t sit idle if there was scope to tap the “disillusionment of MLAs in the ruling party”.

“This attempt may not have succeeded but the stability of the Kamal Nath government is in question,” said a third leader. “This government will not survive, and may fall in a month’s time.”

The upcoming Rajya Sabha election may be a suitable time to nurture faultlines, the sources said.

One of the aforementioned BJP leaders said there was “huge resentment” among followers of senior Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia. After the 2018 elections, Scindia was being touted as the Congress’ leading chief ministerial candidate but the party chose to go with veteran Kamal Nath. 

“The BJP is only tapping this resentment,” said the leader. “Many of them were not made ministers in the Kamal Nath government. Many MLAs who came to Delhi belong to the Scindia camp.”

The sources said Kamal Nath would face another test in the coming days if disgruntled MLAs cross-vote in the Rajya Sabha polls. 

“The Congress will lose the second seat and this will be beginning of the fall of the Kamal Nath government.”

Each MLA can only vote once in Rajya Sabha elections. This means the Congress is assured one seat with 58 votes, a Congress source said. However, it will be one vote short for the second seat, which means it might need a cross-vote from the BJP, the source added.

The BJP, meanwhile, also has one seat assured but will need 9 votes to win the second one. “If the BJP manages to get a few Congress MLAs to cross-vote, the party can win its second seat… and this will pave the way for the fall of the Kamal Nath government,” a BJP strategist said.

‘Can’t shut our doors’

Congress Rajya Sabha MP Digvijaya Singh, whose seat is among those up for re-election, alleged Wednesday that BJP leader Narottam Mishra had come to Delhi Tuesday night in a chartered flight with eight MLAs. Former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had also reached the capital from Bhopal to spearhead Operation Kamal (an alleged BJP ploy to poach legislators from rivals) in Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP, however, has refused it has anything to do with the MLAs flying out. State BJP president Vishnu Dutt Sharma told ThePrint that it was the result of “an internal Congress conflict between (former Chief Minister) Digvijaya Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath”. 

“The BJP has nothing to do with this drama but the party is monitoring the fluid situation… If anybody knocks on the BJP’s door, we can’t shut it. We are in politics.”

Mishra told ThePrint that the BJP was in “touch with 15 to 20 MLAs”. “The Congress and Independent MLAs are dissatisfied with the Kamal Nath government… There are many camps in the Congress. If any body comes with us, we can’t refuse their support.”