Mumbai: Over the last two years, two of Maharashtra’s regional parties — the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) — have suffered a vertical split. Rebel factions of both the parties allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and their leaders, Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde and NCP’s Ajit Pawar, were accommodated as Chief Minister and Deputy CM, respectively.
In that sense, the rebellions were similar in nature, but the similarities end there.
After the Eknath Shinde-led faction rebelled against the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, the latter attacked the rebels tooth and nail, slamming them in the legislature and outside.
In contrast, it has been over a month since Ajit Pawar split the NCP with a clutch of MLAs and senior party leaders, but after an initial few rapid moves — such as sending expulsion notices to the rebels and making filings with the Election Commission regarding the same — the Sharad Pawar-led faction has been increasingly quiet and passive. This has unsettled allies of the senior Pawar in Maharashtra — the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Congress.
Multiple meetings between the Pawar uncle and nephew have further thickened the air with questions and theories over Sharad Pawar’s political strategy, though he has clarified on a number of occasions that his NCP will never ally with the BJP.
Analysts and party workers say that the octogenarian is hoping for several of the MLAs who joined Ajit Pawar in his rebellion to come back to the Sharad Pawar fold, and that it would be politically more prudent to see how the situation plays out rather than taking a belligerent stance towards rebels now.
Showing bitter rivalry and lashing out has never been Pawar’s style even with his arch nemeses in politics, they say, adding that Ajit Pawar is family.
“Sharad Pawar is someone who never breaks relations. The other day he went to the house of Vijaysinh Mohite Patil, who had defected, but he still went there, visited him,” said political commentator Pratap Asbe.
“This is how his political nature has been and the NCP’s culture has grown around it. But other allies will not accept this kind of behaviour, like Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT). So, Sharad Pawar will have to find a way to get them together and assure them of his loyalty,” he added.
Mohite Patil was an NCP MP and a close aide of Sharad Pawar. Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, he and his son, Ranjitsinh, joined the BJP.
In this backdrop, all eyes are now on Sharad Pawar’s rally Thursday in Marathwada’s Beed district, the home turf of rebel MLA Dhananjay Munde, who is now a minister in the Eknath Shinde-led Maharashtra government.
The uncle-nephew meetings
So far, the Ajit Pawar faction seems to have the loyalty of the majority of the NCP’s 53 MLAs, but there is still a lack of clarity when it comes to absolute numbers as many of these MLAs haven’t physically shown up for the Baramati legislator.
During the monsoon session, NCP legislators would mark their attendance in the House, but barely sit for the proceedings, fearing that they would have to openly take a stand for or against the government, and, by extension, for or against Sharad Pawar’s NCP, on various issues.
The NCP didn’t issue a whip in the monsoon session of the legislature or even Parliament, party leaders said.
The three MPs who have pledged their support to the Sharad Pawar faction — the leader’s daughter Supriya Sule, Amol Kolhe and Shriniwas Patil — supported the Opposition in the no-confidence vote against the Narendra Modi government and were part of the Opposition walkout, party leaders added.
A senior NCP MLA who has stayed put with the Sharad Pawar-led NCP told ThePrint there is a sincere attempt by the party leadership to bring some of the rebel MLAs back.
“The rebel faction is trying to create confusion. Our MLAs are also in a state of confusion. We are trying to have a dialogue with them,” he said.
Meanwhile, another NCP leader close to Sharad Pawar said the overtures from the Ajit Pawar faction, the repeated meetings with Sharad Pawar, are because the rebels are trying to persuade the NCP chief to give them his blessings and support the coalition government with the BJP.
“But, Pawarsaheb (Sharad Pawar) has cleared the air and said the NCP will not ally with the BJP. The rebels are trying to persuade him because they themselves are not sure of their numbers,” he said.
Speaking to reporters in Sangola in the Solapur district Sunday, Sharad Pawar said the NCP will never ally with the BJP though some “well-wishers” are trying to persuade him through cordial discussions.
His allies in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress — haven’t taken too kindly to these meetings. The Shiv Sena (UBT) Monday, in its party mouthpiece Saamana, said the frequent meetings were tarnishing senior Pawar’s image.
Similarly, Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole Monday said that such meetings were creating confusion among people, and that he was keeping party leader Rahul Gandhi updated with all the developments.
Also Read: ‘Not my fault I was born from a different womb’ — Ajit Pawar escalates feud with uncle
The Pawar family and possible political strategies
In Indian politics, Sharad Pawar has always personified the saying, “Keep your friends close, your enemies closer.” And this time is no different.
Speaking to ThePrint, Nitin Birmal, associate professor at Pune’s Dr Ambedkar College of Arts & Commerce, said the Sharad Pawar-led NCP will in its seat-sharing talks within the MVA try to corner the majority of the seats in its stronghold of western Maharashtra, Marathwada and north Maharashtra, and so will the Ajit Pawar-led faction if it contests next year’s assembly polls with the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena.
“If both the factions jointly get more than 70-80 seats, they can combine forces and stake claim to the CM’s post. Keeping all these political strategies in mind, Sharad Pawar might have thought it’s better to stay quiet as of now and see what happens post-elections,” Birmal said.
He added, another theory for Sharad Pawar’s relative silence on the rebellion could be that the split has “cleared the way for his daughter Supriya Sule, Baramati MP, and grandnephew Rohit Pawar, MLA from Karjat Jamkhed, to put their stamp on the party in a post-Sharad Pawar era”.
So, even if the efforts to reconcile with rebel MLAs fail, it still gives Sharad Pawar what he wanted.
Rohit is the grandson of Sharad Pawar’s elder brother Appasaheb Pawar, and has been in politics since 2017, when he won the Pune Zilla Parishad seat by a margin of over 12,000 votes. He won his debut assembly election in 2019 from Karjat Jamkhed.
Political analyst Asbe said family has always been very important for Sharad Pawar, and though Ajit Pawar’s rebellion against his uncle is bound to strain ties, the octogenarian will never want to declare an open war within the family.
In his autobiography, ‘Lok Maze Sangati (People, my companions)’, published in 2015, Sharad Pawar has elaborated on how the Pawar family across generations meets every year to celebrate Diwali, a tradition started by his late mother.
Members of the family would talk about their lives and consult with Sharad Pawar’s mother on major decisions. That role is now played by Sharad Pawar as his family’s patriarch.
But, Mahesh Tapase, spokesperson of the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, said it’s not that the party has been passive. “Because of the rains and the assembly session, Pawarsaheb wasn’t able to hit the road earlier. But, now, us karyakartas have organised a massive rally of Pawarsaheb in Beed that will undoubtedly have a large turnout. He has on many occasions clarified that he will not align with the BJP and is committed to the Opposition alliance,” he said.
“Some karyakartas had some confusion in their minds immediately after the rebellion, it takes time to take stock of the situation,” he added. “But, now that the dust has settled, we are confident that the organisation is with Sharad Pawar.”