Chandigarh: The BJP is likely to make a clean sweep in Haryana that sends 10 members to the Lok Sabha, exit polls predicted Sunday evening. The NDTV’s Poll of Polls, which takes an average of all exit polls, predicted eight seats for the BJP and two for the Congress.
If exit poll results hold true on 23 May, when election results are to be declared, it would come as a big blow to the Congress that was looking to dislodge the BJP government in the assembly elections scheduled later this year.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won seven seats in Haryana while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) had won Sirsa and Hisar leaving the Congress with just the Rohtak Parliamentary constituency.
For the BJP, the victory would mean a thumbs up to the five years of its rule in the state. The results will reaffirm the BJP’s faith in the leadership of Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar and party president Subhash Barala.
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Regional outfits may have to rework strategy
If the exit polls hold true, they may force the INLD, the principal opposition party that had split into two last year following an ugly family feud among the Chautalas, to reconsider a patch-up with its breakaway faction of the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP).
The JJP was formed by outgoing Hisar MP Dushyant Chautala and with him predicted to lose as well, he too may be forced to consider rejoining his parent party.
For the Aam Aadmi Party, which had tied up with the JJP in these elections, the exit polls are another reminder that it is faced with a long wait before it opens its account in the state.
The exit polls also showed no joy for the newly-formed alliance of the BSP and the Lok Suraksha Party (LSP) created by rebel BJP MP Rajkumar Saini. His bid, to bring together Dalits and backward classes, appears to have not worked in the state.
For the BJP, a clean sweep will be a vindication of the party’s strategy to field non-Jat candidates in Jat-centric seats, a tactic it will repeat in the assembly elections.
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A firm foundation has been laid for second terms for the state governments in Maharashtra and Haryana.
I’m surprised so few political pundits have pointed out the basic fact of today’s party structure that BJP of today is the Congress of the old from pre Mandal days with one big exceptions, Muslims. Just like the Congress of the old, BJP has completely solidified the upper cast vote across India and enough of lower cast votes to get to the necessary number. In a state like Haryana, this has meant that BJP has consolidated the upper caste (excluding Jats) which are like 20-30% of votes, and enough other groups like Ahirs to get to its numbers, this is exactly like Bahajan Lals Congress party of old when Devi Lal represented the Jats, the tables are turned today with Congress being the defect party of the Jats. With Jat voters split between Congress and various Cahutala clan parties, it is not a surprise that BJP is set for a clean sweep. What Congress needs to do to survive is to be the pan Jat party and seek enough of other middle caste voters to maybe have a chance, this will mean alliance with Chautalas, however impossible that may seem today. The Chautalas for their own survival will have to dos that.
Politics of India since Independence can been basically summarized as struggle between party of upper+ lower castes which used to be Congress but now is BJP, and various splintered parties who represent middle castes. Chanakya would be happy to know that.