Mumbai: As the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections ended Sunday, exit polls showed a clear lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena alliance, but indicated that the parties may have ceded some space to the opposition.
Maharashtra elects 48 MPs, the second-highest number after Uttar Pradesh. The NDTV Poll of Polls has predicted 37 seats for BJP-Shiv Sena and 11 for the Congress-NCP. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted 38-42 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena and 6-10 for the Congress-NCP. The ABP Nielsen exit poll has predicted 17 seats each for the BJP and Shiv Sena, and nine and four for the NCP and Congress, respectively.
In 2014, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 42 of the 48 seats in the state — BJP 23, Shiv Sena 18 and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana 1. The Congress and NCP were decimated, with two and four MPs, respectively.
BJP’s alliance with Sena major factor for possible lead
One of the main factors behind the BJP-Shiv Sena’s possible lead in Maharashtra is their decision to contest as an alliance, with the BJP fighting 25 seats and the Sena 23, despite being at loggerheads until February. With the Congress-NCP having restructured their broken partnership, a three-cornered fight with the Shiv Sena and BJP as rivals would have cost the long-time allies dearly.
Similarly, the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, which attempted to bring different marginalised sections of the society under one umbrella and fielded 48 candidates, is being seen as an experiment that may have ended up being advantageous to the BJP, cutting into the opposition’s vote-share.
The exit poll results indicate that the BJP and Shiv Sena may lose some of their 2014 gains due to the lack of an evident ‘Modi wave’, unlike the last time, a severe drought in rural Maharashtra, and some disillusionment among minorities and backward classes who backed the NDA in 2014.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena Chief Raj Thackeray’s anti-NDA campaign does not seem to have impacted voters to a large extent, considering BJP-Shiv Sena’s tally may be just a few seats short of its 2014 performance in Maharashtra.
Also read: Why Axis MyIndia does exit polls but not a pre-poll seat forecast
Infighting & defections may hurt Congress-NCP
Although the Congress and the NCP mended fences, the opposition was still not seen as a strong enough force able to keep its house in order.
There were instances of infighting in different parts of the Maharashtra Congress such as Mumbai and Vidarbha. High-profile defections such as Sujay Vikhe Patil, Congress leader Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil’s son, and Ranjitsinh Mohite Patil, NCP leader Vijaysinh Mohite Patil’s son, to the BJP also came as a major blow. Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, who stepped down as leader of opposition after his son joined the Congress, even campaigned for the BJP in the Ahmednagar constituency.
BJP leaders used this disorganisation within the opposition to their advantage, with Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis often appealing to the electorate to choose a stable government with a clear leadership than a confused “khichdi” government.
Setting the tone for Maharashtra assembly polls
The BJP’s Lok Sabha election campaign in Maharashtra was focused around two broad issues — infrastructure development in terms of rural road connectivity, mega projects, metro lines, housing and so on that its government has provided, and national security.
Campaigning for the state assembly elections, less than six months away, may be more focused on the infrastructure plank, on which the Fadnavis government has had a decent showing at least in urban Maharashtra.
The BJP’s fortunes in the assembly elections, however, will also hinge on whether it manages to continue its alliance with the Shiv Sena for the state polls, given that the Congress-NCP are likely to contest together.
Having in principle agreed to a 50:50 seat-sharing formula, much depends on how the BJP and the Shiv Sena manage negotiations over key cabinet posts and the chief ministership.
The parties contested the 2014 parliamentary election as allies, but fought the assembly elections solo due to seat-sharing disagreements.
Meanwhile, for the Congress-NCP, the Lok Sabha election results may come as an alarm bell to put their house in order, to have a better shot at paring their 2014 assembly poll losses.
Also read: Here’s how exit polls fared in the last three Lok Sabha elections
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If the exit polls prove accurate, the Shiv Sena will be a most mellow ally in future.