Mumbai: The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance suffered a rout in Maharashtra, winning just five of the state’s 48 seats, but detailed results show it could have gained up to seven more seats where Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) spoiled its prospects.
This election, the NCP won four Lok Sabha seats — Baramati, Raigad, Shirur and Satara — just as many as it had in 2014, while the Congress managed to win just Chandrapur, reducing its tally from two seats last election to one now.
However, data from the Election Commission shows the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could have had a shot at winning two more seats in Vidarbha (Buldhana and Gadchiroli-Chimur), three in western Maharashtra (Solapur, Hathkanangale and Sangli), and two in Marathwada.
Western Maharashtra and Marathwada, which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena dominated along with the rest of the state this election, were considered to be Congress-NCP’s strongholds.
VBA experiment
The VBA, which took a significant amount of votes in the seven constituencies, registered victory in one seat — Marathwada’s Aurangabad where Imtiaz Jaleel from ally All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won against senior Shiv Sena leader Chandrakant Khaire.
The VBA was an experiment put together by Ambedkar to bring different marginalised sections of the society and the parties who represent them together. As an umbrella alliance, it fielded candidates in all 48 of Maharashtra’s constituencies.
Even as Congress and NCP leaders made attempts to get the VBA to join the opposition alliance, Ambedkar stood his ground and contested separately.
Opposition leaders feared that the VBA will end up cutting into their vote share and helping the BJP-Shiv Sena as a result.
“There was no wave. Traders, the unemployed, the farmers, were expressing their discontent on the ground, but yet the BJP-Shiv Sena got this kind of a result. We have to study where we went wrong, but the VBA did do us damage in a bunch of seats,” said Vijay Wadettiwar, a Congress MLA from the Chandrapur district and a senior party leader.
“One of the main reasons the Congress lost the safe seat of Nanded is also due to the VBA,” Wadettiwar added.
Nanded was Maharashtra Congress president Ashok Chavan’s constituency, which the party had managed to guard in the Modi wave of 2014.
Seats where VBA damaged opposition’s prospects
Of the most significant constituencies that the opposition lost because of VBA’s impact, Nanded in the Marathwada region was one. Former CM Chavan lost this bastion by a margin of 40,148 votes.
Chavan polled 4,42,138 votes, while the VBA took away 1,65,341 votes. Together with the VBA votes, the Congress could have had 6,07,479 votes and defeated BJP’s Pratap Chikhalikar who scored 4,82,148 votes.
Similarly, the NCP may have comfortably won Parbhani if the VBA had not been a rival force. NCP’s Rajesh Vitekar won 4,96,372 votes, while the VBA made a dent of 1,49,834 votes, together amounting to 6,46,206 votes. The Shiv Sena won this seat with 5,38,214 votes.
In western Maharashtra, the VBA, perhaps, dealt the opposition its biggest blow in Solapur where former Congress CM Sushilkumar Shinde, who got who got 3,65,274 votes, lost to Jai Siddheshwar Shivacharya, a spiritual leader fielded by the BJP. Together with VBA’s 1,69,523 votes here, Shinde would have been able to just about snatch this constituency from the BJP. The BJP candidate won with 5,23,352 votes — VBA and Congress’ combined votes would have amounted to 5,34,797 votes.
Harm to UPA allies too
Sangli was another example of a bastion, being former Congress CM Vasantdada Patil’s constituency, falling to the BJP.
Patil’s grandson, Vishal Patil, contested from the constituency on ally Swabhimani Shetkari Paksha’s (SSP) symbol and got 3,42,016 votes, while the VBA here got 2,97,349 votes. Together with the VBA votes, Vishal would have been able to triumph over BJP’s sitting MP Sanjaykaka Patil with 6,39,365 votes against the latter’s 5,03,615 votes.
The VBA caused damage to the SSP at Hathkanangale too with the incumbent Raju Shetty, who had aligned with the National Democratic Alliance in 2014. He lost to Shiv Sena’s Dhairyasheel Mane this time despite drawing 4,87,276 votes. Here, the VBA took away 1,23,151 votes, which if it had gone to the opposition, the UPA would have won with 6,10,427 votes as against the Shiv Sena’s 5,82,776.
It was a similar scenario in Vidarbha’s Buldhana and Gadchiroli-Chimur constituencies, which the NCP and the Congress, respectively, lost.
At Buldhana, the NCP and VBA’s votes put together were 5,60,599 votes, adequate to win over Shiv Sena’s Prataprao Jadhav, who won with 5,20,538 votes. At Gadchiroli Chimur, the Congress and VBA’s 5,51,722 votes together would have beaten the BJP’s 5,17,722 votes.
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Yes its well accepted and established fact of Prakash Ambedkar giving a shock to Congress-NCP and their allies. The dynamics could see the peak during state elections and if here BJP-ShivSena alliance do not eneter into some good terms of coalition or create a plan of getting reservation for other castes then its going to hit them badly. Yes given the nature of Prakash Ambedkar he seems to enjoy the force he created but he should not forget that his Grand Father Dr Bhim Rao Ambedkar was not given any seat of Parliament or even due recognition By Nehru and this is the ideology of Congress Party and same is of NCP. So Prakash Amabedkar has to rethink before joining hands with Congress-NCP as these people only and only cared for their own community as a prioroty in maharashtra for Marathas, but then why not Dhangars, why not other sub castes which donot get the same benefits as they neither are included in SC or OBC. Also very very crucial is each of these are giving benefits to muslims in the name of minority, but then they have never ever cared for better representation in the main stream, moreover then why not for Jains, Buddhists or Parsis what crime the people of these religions did that they are not given any weightage.
Funny analysis which rests on the assumption that all VBA votes would go to Congress- NCP. Not much point in crying over spilt milk and painting what if scenarios.
जर आत्याबाईला मिशा असत्या तर काका म्हटले असते.
Since 1st election People like you always goes with calculations of addition & subtraction & accordingly predicts because of so & so some is lost or won , when Congress was in full form it used to said that due to division of vote Congress wins & now due to division BJP is winning but voters have proved this logic totally wrong in UP where even after seat sharing between SP & BSP they couldn’t defeat BJP
My dear writer as Narendra Modi said in his address to BJP karyakartas after re-election stop this type of misleading statements & politics of division ,intact voters are the real king of democracy , they are not the slaves to any dynasty
And please henceforth guide the voters to choose the right candidates & not just mislead them on the basis of cast & issues like pseudo secularism
Ridiculous analysis even after UP had shown that vote arithmetic does not work.
Had VBA not there, BJP/SS might have polled more votes.
1. I think author’s assumption that voters polled by VBA candidates would have been secured by NCP, or the Congress candidate as the case may be, is too simplistic an assumption. We have seen that similar assumption was prevalent when BSP & SP joined hands in Uttar Pradesh but it has been proved that voters do not go by what individuals like this think. I say therefore, that what the author has argued is not true as otherwise SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh would have won as many as 60 seats. 2. In all multi-cornered contests division of votes takes place and who is beneficiary of such division is pretty unpredictable as has been proved in Uttar Pradesh. 3. As per our existing election law, First Past the Post (FPTP) is a rule under which a winner is declared. We know that the FPTP rule creates many distortions: a candidate securing as low as 32 % votes may be a winner. Question is this: has time come to reconsider FPTP and think about having ‘System of Proportional Representation’ (SPR) at least for some 33% of total Assembly or Lok Sabha seats? I believe our political parties should debate having SPR, which can pave way for a major election system reform.
Childish analysis and childlike calculations.
Maratha Reservation Agitation strengthened the VBA and even got support of Muslim votes.
BJP / SS will repeat same performance in Assembly elections too, if VBA is left alone.
As Congress is non existent….NCP should go solo with VBA.
A failure of statecraft. For the Congress to win 1 seat – by someone who almost did not get a ticket – and see two former CMs lose is not a happy situation. This in a state where its DNA is to be found in each village. Before “ rebuilding the party organisation “ in UP and Bihar, Maharashtra needs attention. Consider how long Sanjay Nirupam was tolerated.
I do not agree with your statement about bva .if they do not give candidate in elevation then all the votes divided into two parties.all votes can’t get Congress.