New Delhi: Six Congress MLAs whose rebellion unsettled the boat of the Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu-led Congress government in Himachal Pradesh are now knocking on the doors of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for a ticket to contest the byelections necessitated by their disqualification.
Bypolls to the six seats, namely Dharamshala, Lahaul & Spiti, Sujanpur, Barsar, Gagret and Kutlehar, are to be held on 1 June followed by the counting of votes on 4 June.
According to sources in the state BJP, party leader Harsh Mahajan, who is believed to have engineered the rebellion that helped him clinch a seat in the Upper House from Himachal Pradesh, has been in Delhi for the past one week to facilitate the move of rebel Congress MLAs to the BJP.
The party, on the other hand, is weighing the risks of inducting rebel Congress MLAs and fielding them in the bypolls, given that the bypolls are coinciding with the final phase of the general election.
This leaves the BJP in a fix in Himachal Pradesh.
The rebel MLAs were disqualified by Speaker Kuldeep Singh Pathania on 29 February for defying the Congress whip and skipping the Budget session of the assembly. The legal challenge to the disqualification is still pending.
One of the rebel Congress legislators told ThePrint on condition of anonymity, “We are waiting for the call to join the BJP and contest the bypolls on a BJP ticket. It is being discussed. The Congress government under Sukhu has not done any developmental work in the state and it is only a matter of time until its collapse in the wake of the bypolls.”
However, there are two hurdles in the path of the rebel MLAs. The first is the legal challenge to the disqualification which is still pending in the courts with the next hearing slated for May. Since that would not allow them with enough time to campaign for the bypolls, the rebels are now mulling over withdrawing their petition challenging the Speaker’s decision. The second challenge is the calculation the BJP has to make before inducting the Congress MLAs and fielding them in the bypolls, given the vulnerability of its own state unit which was evident by the rebellion of multiple BJP leaders in the run-up to the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections in 2022.
It is learnt that many in the state unit of the BJP are not in favour of the crossover and have advised the party’s senior leadership to field only two or three of the rebel Congress MLAs in the bypolls in order to offset any discontent among cadres ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
“Lok Sabha elections and bypolls are different. In the Lok Sabha, the BJP will win all four seats in the state with record margin. As far as the bypolls are concerned, there are multiple factors and the party high command will take the final call on it,” said former state BJP president Satpal Satti.
A central BJP leader also told ThePrint that the party is looking at all aspects. “The Congress has labelled them (rebel MLAs) deserters who betrayed the mandate of voters. The party has to conduct a risk-benefit analysis since fielding rebel MLAs can also be counterproductive. At the same time, since they did support the BJP, the rebel MLAs will be inducted into the party and the party will take a call on how to utilise them.”
Also Read: How Pratibha Singh’s decision not to contest LS polls could damage Congress’s prospects in Himachal
BJP’s Himachal Pradesh conundrum
In the assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh in 2022, the BJP won 25 of the state’s 68 seats with 43 percent of the vote as against Congress’s 40 seats and 43.9 percent vote.
ThePrint had reported how rebellion by 17 BJP leaders dented the party’s prospects in at least six seats. Three BJP leaders who rebelled and contested as Independents after they were denied a ticket, namely K.L. Thakur in Nalagarh, Hoshyar Singh in Dehra and Ashish Sharma in Hamirpur, had trounced BJP candidates in the polls. Besides, rebels also damaged the party’s prospects in Kinnaur, Kullu, Dharamshala and Indora.
Against this backdrop, many in the state BJP fear that fielding rebel Congress MLAs in the bypolls could hurt the party and diminish its prospects of coming back to power in Himachal Pradesh.
Not long after the Election Commission declared the dates for the bypolls, Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly and former chief minister Jairam Thakur had told reporters, “The rebel Congress MLAs sacrificed their career for the BJP. The BJP respects their sacrifice and will consider their candidature for the elections after their induction into the party.”
With the disqualification of the six MLAs, the strength of the state assembly came down to 62 from the earlier 68. This also meant that the majority mark is now 32 and not 35. Given that the Congress with its 34 remaining MLAs is barely buoyant, the BJP would be in a position to dislodge the Sukhu government and form one of its own if it is able to win the bypolls and add another six MLAs to its tally of 28 (including three Independents).
On Friday, the three Independent MLAs who supported the BJP candidate in the Rajya Sabha polls resigned from the assembly. According to sources, the BJP sent chartered aircraft to fly them from Delhi. Sources added that the three could contest the bypolls on a BJP ticket.
“Now, nine bypolls will take place because BJP was not in favour of taking any chances since these Independents can withdraw support after pressure from the state government. That is why getting them elected on a BJP ticket is necessary to dislodge the Congress government,” said a state BJP leader.
ThePrint reported earlier how the decision to hold the bypolls in Himachal Pradesh on 1 June could work in favour of the BJP. “Holding the bypolls alongside the Lok Sabha elections will give us an advantage since the mood will be favourable for Modi and the chances of winning the bypolls is higher. If the BJP wins these seats, its numerical strength will be enough to dislodge the Congress government in the state,” said a state BJP leader.
A general secretary of the Himachal Pradesh BJP added on condition of anonymity that if the party wins the six seats up for grabs, both parties will have 34 MLAs and it will be difficult for the Congress to survive a floor test.
However, before it can plan for the bypolls, the BJP will have to overcome a major hurdle: inducting the six rebel Congress MLAs into the party without upsetting its cadres who have been canvassing against the same leaders.
For instance, BJP’s Virender Kanwar has launched his campaign in Kutlehar which elected him to the assembly four times. A former minister, Kanwar has been canvassing against the induction of rebel Congress MLA Davinder Kumar Bhutto into the BJP. Kutlehar is seen as a bastion of the BJP, given that the party held the seat from 1993 until 2o22.
“I am ready to contest the elections and have started campaigning for the party in the constituency. I have also communicated my feelings to the party leadership,” Kanwar told ThePrint.
Lahaul & Spiti, a reserved seat, is witnessing a similar tussle with Ram Lal Markanda — a minister in the Jairam Thakur and Prem Kumar Dhumal governments — seeking a ticket to contest the bypolls from this seat. One obstacle in his way is Ravi Thakur, who won the seat for the Congress in 2022. Markanda announced earlier this week that he would contest the bypoll. A source in the state BJP said “if the party fields Congress rebel Ravi Thakur, Markanda may move to the Congress to contest against Thakur”.
A not too different scramble is playing out in Dharamshala from where Congress rebel Sudhir Sharma who was a minister in the Virbhadra Singh government is looking to contest the bypolls on a BJP ticket. But his induction is unlikely to go down well with many state BJP leaders including Rakesh Chaudhary, Kishan Kapoor and Vishal Nehria, to name a few. One option is to replace Kapoor with Sharma in the Kangra Lok Sabha seat.
Similarly, rebel Congress MLA Chaitanya Sharma is facing resistance from former BJP legislator Balbir Choudhary in Gagret, while in Barsar Congress rebel Inder Dutt Lakhanpal appears to be standing in the way of BJP’s Baldev Sharma. This is also the case with Rajinder Rana, who defeated then chief minister Dhumal in the 2017 assembly polls, contested the 2014 Lok Sabha polls against Union minister and Dhumal’s son Anurag Thakur, and is now looking to contest the bypolls from Sujanpur on a BJP ticket.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
Also Read: Disgruntled MLAs & a reticent CM — storm in Himachal Congress has been brewing for a long time