Lucknow: The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is seemingly imploding ahead of the Lok Sabha elections — One of its MPs has resigned from the party, another has been expelled, yet another has been declared as an official candidate for the Samajwadi Party (SP), and three others are allegedly cozying up to rivals.
The party, which won 10 seats as part of a grand alliance with SP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in 2019 Lok Sabha election, has decided to go it alone in the upcoming general elections — a factor that, analysts say, may have triggered the departure of party parliamentarians since when the BSP had contested alone in 2014, it had failed to secure any seats.
On 25 February, Ambedkar Nagar MP Ritesh Pandey joined the BJP, signalling a deepening crisis for the BSP, which is now witnessing desertion by prominent Muslim leaders too.
Pandey — declared as BJP’s candidate from Ambedkar Nagar Saturday — is poised to contest against senior SP leader Lalji Verma.
On 28 February, former Mubarakpur MLA Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali had joined the SP along with hundreds of his supporters and BSP members.
The BSP relies on the backing of Muslims, alongside its core support base of Dalits, to secure crucial electoral victories. However, it has faced setbacks with the departure of two prominent Muslim figures from the party in recent times. In December, the BSP suspended its Amroha MP, Danish Ali. Though yet to join another party, he participated in Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, joining the movement in Manipur in January and later in Amroha on 25 February. BSP’s Jaunpur MP Shyam Singh Yadav, too, had joined the yatra the same day when it entered Agra. He has also joined Gandhi in the UP leg of the previous Bharat Jodo Yatra in December 2022.
Moreover, Afzal Ansari, a former BSP MP from Ghazipur, has already been named as a candidate for the seat by the SP. Gopal Yadav, SP district president from Ghazipur, said that Ansari has joined the SP. When contacted by ThePrint, Ansari refused to confirm whether he had tendered his official resignation from the BSP.
However, BSP’s UP president Vishwanath Pal told ThePrint that without resigning from a party, it is not possible that a leader can be declared as an official candidate from another party.
Speaking to ThePrint on the reason for this exodus of sorts being witnessed in the BSP, Mirza Asmer Beg, professor of political science at Aligarh Muslim University (AMU) said that this was because MPs were looking at the winnability factor of parties.
“Any candidate who wants to fight the polls looks at the winnability of a political party and thinks about his own political career. Many are moving towards the BJP today but it doesn’t mean that there has been an ideological shift overnight. It is because staying with BSP could mean losing, so they are exploring greener pastures. They feel that they will get a better bargain with BJP or with the INDIA alliance, since the BSP is not in a good position. MPs giving reasons like Mayawati not giving them time are merely making excuses,” he said.
“It is quite possible that in the event of a three-cornered contest, the BSP’s votes may reduce significantly and it may end up at the third spot. Candidates and voters move towards where the wind is flowing, which is why the BJP builds momentum by giving slogans like ‘Abki baar, 400 paar (this time around, we’ll cross 400 seats),” he said.
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The erosion in BSP’s support base
Founded by Bahujan movement leader Kanshi Ram in 1984, the BSP reached the pinnacle of electoral success in 2007 when it formed the government in UP on its own. His successor and current BSP supremo, Mayawati has had multiple tenures as CM.
Since 2019, however, the BSP has witnessed an erosion in its support base, with the party winning a single seat in 2022 assembly elections with a vote share of 12.8 percent — 9 percent less than its vote share in 2017.
The BSP, which once enjoyed a complete hold over Uttar Pradesh’s Dalit community — comprising 21 percent of the state’s populace, according to the 2011 census — as well as in other regions, now faces a significant fracture in its core support base. A substantial portion of non-Jatavs has defected to the BJP, signaling a notable shift in allegiance.
Speaking to ThePrint, a senior BSP leader confirmed that most of its sitting MPs are looking for greener pastures and are exploring options.
“Several of the BSP MPs are looking for a way out because they are afraid that behenji’s (Mayawati) decision of going alone may be suicidal and they fear for their political career. While the BJP has poached Ritesh Pandey, whose family has a stronghold in Ambedkar Nagar, others are in touch with the INDIA alliance,” the leader said.
A statement made by Mayawati, hours after Pandey’s switch to the BJP, asking if it was possible to give tickets to sitting MPs when they themselves are running helter skelter “for their selfish interests”, has added to the MPs’ irritation with her, the leader added.
A slow exodus?
Three weeks ago, BSP’s Bijnor MP Malook Nagar had praised the Modi government in Parliament while speaking on the President’s address, sparking speculation that he may join the NDA. A picture of him in the RLD’s Delhi office surrounded by RLD MLAs surfacing online has only added fuel to the fire.
Nagar has served as the party’s deputy leader in Lok Sabha but was replaced by Ram Shiromani Verma in September 2020.
However, he told ThePrint that he had met RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary in December, too, since he considers the latter’s grandfather, Chaudhary Charan Singh, a tall farmer leader. He added that he has been informed by the RLD that the BJP-RLD’s candidate for Bijnor Lok Sabha will belong to RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan’s family.
But does he mean to quit the BSP and join the BJP-RLD alliance? To Nagar this is akin to answering a question about his own mortality.
“All I can say is that even you are unhappy with your company and want to resign and the BJP may offer you a ticket,” he said.
BSP’s Shyam Singh Yadav has, meanwhile, made news for joining Rahul Gandhi on his yatras.
After walking with him in 2022, Yadav, in an interview to ThePrint, had praised Gandhi and remarked that he held the same opinion as the Congress leader that constitutional institutions were being merged into the state.
On joining the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra now, Yadav said to ThePrint, “BJNY is a non-political yatra which anyone can join. I like its purpose. When two religions are being made to fight with each other, everyone should give a helping hand to further the purpose of the yatra, which is to end this hatred,” he said.
He said that though he continues to be with the BSP “as of now”, he did not like Mayawati’s decision to fight alone.
“She should have come on board with the INDIA alliance to fight the authoritarian and dictatorial regime,” he said.
Yadav also expressed his frustration over not being able to get time with her. “For the past six months, I have been hearing that a candidate is being searched for (in Jaunpur). Earlier when I would ask behenji for time, I would manage to speak to her but now, despite sending messages to her, I have been unable to speak to her. How can MPs be treated like this?” he said.
Speaking to ThePrint, a senior SP leader said that Yadav has been seeking a ticket in the SP-Congress alliance.
“The seat (Jaunpur) has gone to the SP as part of the coalition. Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has been approached by several party leaders from his own party and the latter will choose the best probable candidate,” the leader said
BSP MP from Saharanpur, Haji Fazlur Rehman, has declared that he will not be contesting this but has pledged to help anyone who wants to defeat BJP.
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Exodus not limited to MPs
Guddu Jamali — a senior Muslim leader who fought against Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav in Azamgarh bypoll in 2022 after Akhilesh vacated the seat following his election to Karhal assembly constituency — left the BSP and joined the SP.
Jamali was instrumental in ensuring Dharmendra’s defeat in the 2022 election, bagging 2,66,210 votes.
“Today, we have only two options. There is one camp which wants to break the country…. I took this decision with a lot of pain and not out of any greed, because I realised that this move will be beneficial for our community. Being a sincere citizen of our country, my heart said that we should stand with people who oppose this,” he said to the media after joining SP.
Criticising Mayawati, he said that while he is indebted to her, he is sad because she is not a part of this fight.
“When she herself is not fighting, what will people like us do? I don’t have any option except to come with them (SP),” he said.
On Monday, former Rudauli MLA Abbas Ali Zaidi alias Rushdie Miyaan, who had switched to the BSP after being denied a ticket by the SP, returned to the SP along with his supporters.
Experts say these politicians have no option other than exploring a move from the BSP since the party has decided to remain out of INDIA alliance despite its declining political graph.
Speaking to ThePrint, Shashikant Pandey, head of the Department of Political Science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, said that in the backdrop of the BSP’s continuous political decline, the party’s confidence of going alone in Lok Sabha polls is “beyond understanding.”
“The BSP won only one seat in 2022 Vidhan Sabha polls and that too because the lone BSP MLA Umashankar Singh has his own support base in Ballia’s Rasra constituency. It had won 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when it was in alliance with SP. Fighting an election needs money and resources and MPs have to take many things into consideration before investing the same in an election and decide whether they have a chance or not,” he said.
Pandey added that given that BSP’s fortunes have been declining, even Muslims too are looking at the Congress.
“The Muslim vote, too, is expected to consolidate towards the SP-Congress alliance. East UP has always been a tough fight for BJP and leaders here have started deserting the BSP. In Ghazipur, Afzal Ansari has already been declared as SP candidate while Shyam Singh Yadav too is putting out feelers to the Congress. Ritesh Pandey who was an MP from Ambedkar Nagar, a once-BSP bastion, has left too. In west UP, Danish Ali was suspended from the party and he is set to join the Congress, while another MP has declared that he won’t fight the election. This “ekla chalo” (go it alone) policy of BSP will become suicidal for the party,” he said.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
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