New Delhi: A Delhi University (DU) students’ poll among 38,000 voters in Uttar Pradesh has found that 44 per cent of people support the BSP-SP alliance, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has not benefitted the Congress party.
According to the survey, the popularity of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has declined in the state since the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party (SP-BSP) alliance was announced in February.
The BJP, which won 71 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in its 2014 sweep, has taken a knock over issues such as farm distress and unemployment, the survey found. The SP-BSP alliance, meanwhile, was found to be making strides solely on the basis of its caste composition.
The coalition of the two Uttar Pradesh titans is expected to bring together their Muslim, Yadav and Dalit votebanks. The alliance also includes the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Ajit Singh, adding Jats to this carefully-calculated caste arithmetic.
The survey was conducted by a group of 25 students from the political science department of Delhi University over a span of three months. During the survey, students interviewed nearly 38,000 people across the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats to sense the voters’ mood and aspirations, also presenting their data in region-wise segments.
BJP’s declining popularity
Of the 37,439 people interviewed for the survey, 13,974, or 37 per cent, people expressed support for the BJP, while 16,341, or 44 per cent, went for the SP-BSP alliance. The remaining 7,124 people, totalling around 19 per cent, voiced support for the Congress (15 per cent) and others (Independents and regional parties).
“According to our survey, the local parties in UP are experiencing significant, soaring popularity after forming an alliance. However, with the Congress, things have not changed,” said Mohammad Mahdi Khajeh, a master’s student at DU who headed the team.
The Congress was virtually routed in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, where it only managed to retain Amethi and Rae Bareli, the seats of party president Rahul Gandhi and his mother and predecessor Sonia, respectively.
Rahul’s sister Priyanka, who has often courted comparisons with their grandmother, late prime minister Indira Gandhi, was drafted as a general secretary in eastern UP earlier this year with the hope that she may bolster the party’s prospects in the state. However, the survey suggests the move may not have worked as desired.
“Even after Priyanka Gandhi came to active politics, the position of this party in Uttar Pradesh did not really change and the party is likely to fail in the state,” Khajeh added.
According to the survey leader, people who supported the BJP and Narendra Modi did so because of the strong stance his government took in the wake of the Pulwama attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel, by attacking the camps of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, the perpetrators, in Balakot, Pakistan.
“The party is popular because people think that it (BJP) stood against the hostility of Pakistan,” he said.
“But there are increasing concerns about the growing unemployment rate and embezzlement charges relating to the Rafale deal. Also, there are some worries regarding the dramatic reduction of farmers’ gross income in rural regions, most of whom are supporters of the BJP,” Khajeh added.
“Hence, we deduced that Modi’s popularity among the people of this state will be lower compared to the 2014 election,” he said.
Region-wise data
Region-wise survey results suggest that the BJP has few takers in western and central UP.
In western UP, which includes areas like Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Badaun and Pilibhit, 51 per cent of people supported the SP-BSP-RLD alliance, while only 29 per cent expressed support for the BJP. Voting for western UP was completed in the first three phases of the Lok Sabha election.
In central UP, which comprises constituencies like state capital Lucknow, Farrukhabad and Rae Bareli, 46 per cent of the respondents supported the alliance, while 33 per cent supported the BJP. Central UP will vote in the remaining three phases of the election. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance is not in contention in Rae Bareli, in order to not split Sonia’s vote.
The eastern part of the state, which includes Modi’s constituency Varanasi and Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath’s citadel Gorakhpur, is still a stronghold of the ruling BJP: 50 per cent of the people in eastern UP supported the BJP in the survey, against 36 per cent for the alliance.
This will come as heartening news for the BJP, which lost the 2018 bypoll for Gorakhpur to another joint fight put up by the SP and the BSP.
The percentage of people supporting the Congress remained at just over 15 per cent across all regions.
It was always a Two Horse race: BJP and SP-BSP. Congress was left at the starting gate long ago.
The ground reality seems to be very different, perhaps the survey must have been sampled in minorities dominated areas
Will keenly watch the results, this survey seems to have been conducted in minority dominated places….
A storm is brewing in Uttar Pradesh, and it is not Priyanka Gandhi nahin, Aandhi hai. To be fair to her, she needs time to grow and mature as a politician. The building blocks are there, but the monument will not be ready in 2019. Arithmetic and chemistry are fusing together for the SP – BSP – RLD alliance. Some observers feel the Congress can contribute more to its success by staying out. Perhaps. At the time of Yogiji’s appointment, a fear was expressed that he might hurt his party’s performance two years later. Few could have foreseen, however, just how terrible an administrator he would prove to be. No one should be surprised to see the Mahagatbandhan at 50.
Bhaisahab, Bharat ko khandaani politician nahin, acche leader or law makers mangta.