Bengaluru: On a day when it should have been celebrating its first anniversary, the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress government is staring at a collapse in the wake of a humiliating defeat for the coalition in the Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka.
The alliance may not continue for long and Chief Minister and JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy may decide to dissolve the Legislative Assembly and call for fresh elections as some of his colleagues have suggested.
To get the latest live updates on the Lok Sabha elections, click here
As of now, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be on course to win an unprecedented 24 of the 28 seats at a minimum, vanquishing in the process heavyweights such as former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda in Tumkur, Mallikarjun Kharge in Gulbarga and M.Veerappa Moily in Chikballapur and garnering over 54 per cent of the votes polled.
Swept away by Modi wave
Much as the Congress and JD(S) leaders would like to explain away their crushing defeat as the lack of chemistry at the lower levels in the hierarchies of the two parties, the truth appears to be a decisive wave in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Or how else do you explain V.S. Ugrappa of the Congress, who won a by-election from the Bellary Lok Sabha seat barely six months ago by a margin of over 2 lakh votes, losing now?
On paper, the coalition looked a formidable grouping electorally but the arithmetic simply did not work. For an alliance to work in elections, chemistry is as important, if not more, as the arithmetic.
The result was most telling in Tumkur where Deve Gowda suffered the ignominy of a defeat, thanks to the lack of enthusiasm from the local Congress cadre to see him win.
While it is true that especially in the Old Mysore region, party functionaries down the line did not accept the idea of the historical rivals making common cause, we can say in retrospect that the pro-Modi wave would have swept away even the best show of co-ordination that the Congress and JD(S) may have put up.
The pro-Modi wave was so strong in north Karnataka, coastal Karnataka and Malnad that a veteran of many an election Mallikarjun Kharge failed to establish a lead even in a single round of counting.
Result could bring down state government
Ever since the coalition government took office exactly a year ago, the BJP has been on the prowl trying to poach Congress and JD(S) MLAs through its infamous Operation Kamala but without much success. Now, it appears the BJP can simply sit back and watch the coalition crumble under the weight of its own contradictions.
“We will wait and watch what the unholy alliance of the JD(S) and Congress will do. They have to respond to the will of the people and decide what they should do about their future,” BJP leader and former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa told reporters Thursday.
The JD(S)-Congress coalition came together not only to prevent the BJP from forming the government in the 2018 Assembly elections but also to ensure that the BJP does not attain pole position in the Lok Sabha elections. The coalition has miserably failed to achieve its second objective and as some Congress leaders have already indicated, there is little reason for the coalition to continue.
Not that the Congress has much control over the situation anyway with up to a dozen MLAs ready to jump ship, and a section within the party lashing out at the leadership of former chief minister Siddaramaiah. Reports have it that some 20 Congress MLAs called up Yeddyurappa offering support even as the trends began to show the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leading in Karnataka and across the country.
Siddaramaiah under scrutiny
Much of the blame for the coalition’s defeat should go to Siddaramaiah, the coordination committee chairman, whose arrogant ways and unilateral decision-making rubbed his own partymen the wrong way. In the run-up to the declaration of the results, some supporters of Siddaramaiah began making statements that their leader should replace Kumaraswamy as chief minister much to the irritation of the JD(S).
The coalition’s losses was also a story of missed opportunities. Poor candidate selection, distribution of seats between the coalition partners, shoddy strategy, and inefficient election management were the defining features of the Congress-JD(S) combine.
So what next for the JD(S) and Congress in Karnataka? One, wait and watch if the BJP is able to destabilise the government while trying to guard their flock. Second, recommend the dissolution of the Assembly and go for fresh elections.
The second option is finding favour with sections in both the parties as they see that as a way of retaining their respective strengths across the state.
But will the Governor (read the central government) play ball? Instead of fresh elections, the BJP may opt to keep the Assembly in suspended animation, giving sufficient time for coalition MLAs to walk over to its side and pave the way for it to form the government.
Also read: KCR’s federal front dreams crumble as BJP makes inroads in new southern turf Telangana
On a train to Delhi in late April, a bjp worker from Karnataka told confidently that BJP will have easy victory at the centre and the coalition government in Karnataka will fall after the election.
I stopped believing in miracles and Santa Claus at age five.