26 Opposition parties have united to fight BJP. Here’s how they fared in 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Seats won by parties under the 'Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA)' span 20 states. Five of the 26 parties have no MPs at all.

Meeting of Opposition alliance in Bengaluru, Tuesday | Courtesy: AICC

New Delhi: A group of 26 Opposition parties congregated in Bengaluru Monday and Tuesday to chalk out a plan to take on the Modi government and the BJP in 2024. At the same time, the BJP flexed its muscles by holding a meeting of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which saw the participation of 38 parties.

BJP national president J.P. Nadda’s announcement of the NDA meeting had elicited sharp reactions from Opposition parties who suggested that their show of unity had forced the ruling dispensation to call the gathering.

Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP Derek O’Brien said eight of the 30 parties invited to the NDA meet had no MPs in the Lok Sabha, while nine had 1 MP each and another three had two MPs each in the Lower House.

Political parties at #BengaluruSummit clearly setting the narrative

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👉Zero MPs: 8 NDA parties
👉One MP: 9 NDA parties
👉Two MPs: 3 NDA parties

— Derek O'Brien | ডেরেক ও'ব্রায়েন (@derekobrienmp) July 17, 2023

An analysis by ThePrint shows that 25 of the 38 NDA constituents have no MPs in the Lok Sabha, while another seven have only one MP each in the Lower House.

But how does the ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA)’ — as the Opposition alliance has been christened — measure up against the NDA?

The Opposition camp says it has the support of “26 progressive parties”.

The seats won by these parties in the 2019 general election are spread across 20 states and UTs. However, 22 of these parties have five or fewer seats in the Lok Sabha. Among those is the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), which, as a result of the Eknath Shinde-engineered split last July, has five MPs. The party had 18 MPs in the Lok Sabha before the split.

Five of the 26 parties have no MPs at all, while six either have one or two MPs each.

The Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) and the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK) did not field any candidates in the previous Lok Sabha polls, while the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and the Kongu Desa Makkal Katchi (KDMK) fought under the symbol of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). 

Together, these 26 parties won 144 seats and garnered a vote share of 38.72 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, against the NDA’s 332 seats and 44.8 percent vote share.

For this analysis, ThePrint has factored the combined vote share of each the Shiv Sena and the NCP.

Professor Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti — a Research Programme at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) — said this was a “crude” way of estimating the strength of the Opposition if it came together.

“Many of the Opposition parties fought against each other in 2019. There are many places where the opposition fought against each other. For example, the Congress and Samajwadi Party were against each other in Uttar Pradesh. In West Bengal, the Congress and the Left were against the Trinamool Congress. So, taking the total vote share of all Opposition parties and comparing it to the NDA’s would be incorrect,” Kumar told ThePrint.

He said although such an alliance could pose a challenge to the BJP, how successful it would be in doing so remains to be seen. 

“It certainly means that prospects are better, that there will be a challenge to the BJP. But if the Opposition thinks that coming together is a guarantee for victory, then the chances are dim,” he added.

State-wise distribution of Oppn seats

Of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the Northeast — including the seven sister states and Sikkim — the ‘INDIA’ constituents were able to win only four seats.

Among the 159 Lok Sabha seats in the ‘Hindi heartland’ states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, the Opposition won all of 24. At the time, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), which had won 16 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, was allied with the BJP. 

In Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where Congress governments were in power during the 2019 polls, the Opposition drew a nought in the former and won two seats in the latter. The two states send 25 and 11 MPs to the Lower House, respectively.

Of the 28 seats in Karnataka, the Opposition bagged one, while in Jharkhand, governed by a Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress government, it was able to lay claim to only two of the 14 Lok Sabha seats.

Punjab, where the Congress was in power then and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) now, the Opposition won nine of the state’s 13 Lok Sabha seats.

In southern India, the Opposition’s gains were largely limited to Kerala and Tamil Nadu. It won all 20 seats in Kerala and 38 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. In Telangana, it won only 3 of 17 seats, and failed to win any of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh.

In Maharashtra, with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena having split since, it is difficult to gauge the Opposition camp’s strength. Of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, nine were won by constituents of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — five by Shiv Sena (UBT), three by NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) and one by the Congress.

“Apart from Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the Opposition has the scope to expand in all states. But whether that’s a possibility, remains to be seen,” said Kumar.

He added that there are at least 224 Lok Sabha seats (of the total 543) in which the BJP won by over 50 percent of the votes in 2019. “If that is the victory margin, then even the Opposition coming together will not help. But yes, it makes the 2024 elections more interesting,” Kumar told ThePrint.

(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)