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HomeOpinionWin or lose, BJP is gaining a foothold in the East. That’s...

Win or lose, BJP is gaining a foothold in the East. That’s a seismic shift in India’s politics

In Bengal & Assam, primary objective of other parties is to defeat BJP. For a region linguistically & culturally different from Hindi heartland, it’s a big change.

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Anticipating election results when most of the polling is yet to take place is a hazardous business. Still, given the way that election campaigning has rolled out, it seems safe to say that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in pole position for the electoral contests in both West Bengal and Assam. In other words, the primary objective of the other parties is to defeat the BJP. If one takes the long view, it does not matter whether it succeeds because, if not this time then the next, the BJP is likely to win in West Bengal. In Assam and much of the Northeast, it is already the incumbent party in power. For a region linguistically and culturally different from the Hindi heartland, this is a seismic shift in politics.

The East has been conquered in slow phases. The last round of state elections in Bihar made the BJP the senior partner in the state’s ruling alliance, though Nitish Kumar continues as chief minister. In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik is getting no younger and is in indifferent health but remains reluctant to name, let alone promote, a successor. With the BJP having become his primary opponent in the state, the story that has played out elsewhere will play out here as well: Parties dependent on a single person or family will eventually be steamrolled by the BJP machine.

With much of the North and West already in its control, the BJP is now more firmly entrenched than the Congress ever was after the 1980s. It has been helped in its rise by the missteps of those who stand in the way, like Mamata Banerjee. She had once taken on the Communists for their systematic violence and party-led corruption, only to become vulnerable to the same two charges today, in addition to being accused of playing the Muslim card. In Maharashtra, meanwhile, the extraordinary shenanigans of the state’s police and political establishment bring nothing but discredit to the ruling alliance.


Also read: For BJP, Uddhav Thackeray is the perfect example — how not to run a government


As for states where the BJP is unable to establish its writ though elections, the party has exploited its control of Parliament. In Delhi, where the BJP has lost at least five successive state elections, it is willing to use legislation, rational or irrational, to wrest de facto control. The same was done to Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 (where too the BJP had little hope of electoral dominance) by dismantling what was once a state government with considerable autonomy. It is extraordinary that 19 million people of Delhi (more than the population of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh combined) should have little say in how they are governed. The Centre’s agent will decide.

Will this story of growing BJP dominance play out in four southern states where the party is a bit-player? Perhaps not in the foreseeable future. In most of these states, the party is still seen as representative of North Indians, committed to espousing Hindi, and representing even now the kind of upper-caste bias that no longer operates in southern politics. The party would need to win over one of the dominant castes in Andhra Pradesh, just as it did the Lingayats in Karnataka, or work its way through several minor castes. It would need to find a Nitish Kumar in one of the Dravida parties in Tamil Nadu, with whoever leads the All India Anna DMK the likely candidate. Meanwhile, Kerala, with its unique religious diversity, presents a very different set of challenges. As through much of Indian history, the South still tries to assert an autonomous destiny. The BJP’s footprint therefore broadly matches that achieved by Aurangzeb — even more so now that the Sikh farmers of Punjab are up in arms!

What does this spreading BJP footprint mean? First, the party is better at winning elections than at governance. On the latter, it gets by with exaggerated claims. Second, it remains intent on pushing ahead with its trademark social and political agenda, so (among other things) the citizenship laws so far held in abeyance could prove to be flashpoints. As for the crucial issue of jobs and livelihoods, those hoping for “poriborton” are likely to be disappointed.


Also read: Winning only Assam won’t be a celebration for BJP. Real victory lies in West Bengal


 

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18 COMMENTS

  1. if the Author finds space with The Print let us assume he must be educated.
    But is it not surprising that the Author does not know that Hindi is not the language of either UP / Bihar.
    Such People Accuse BJP being controlled by RSS but do not mention that RSS is basically from Maharashtra.
    These SUCKualrs and sadly even the BJP has never
    Focused on the fact that their founder was a Bengali.
    For these SUCKulars Good Governance is reflected by the Bank Balances / Net Worth of Scamsters .

  2. Hindi : if the Author finds space with The Print let us assume he must be educated.
    But is it not surprising that the Author does not know that Hindi is not the language of either UP / Bihar.
    Such People Accuse BJP being controlled by RSS but do not mention that RSS is basically from Maharashtra.
    These SUCKualrs and sadly even the BJP has never
    Focused on the fact that their founder was a Bengali.
    For these SUCKulars Good Governance is reflected by the Bank Balances / Net Worth of Scamsters .

  3. Fortunately, atleast the Southern part of india had geographical immunity for a long time in history as all the invasions took place via land route through silk route from north western part until Europeans started ” discovering ” lands via sea route.
    As far as Aurangzeb is concerned, he had control over much larger geographical area than current boundaries of our country. Use of this statement by the editor was solely to irk the readers i think.
    Sadly , editors these days rather than talking over facts try to paint pictures based on their own whims and fancies.
    Wat a drunk idea of freedom of expression!!

  4. “As through much of Indian history, the South still tries to assert an autonomous destiny. The BJP’s footprint therefore broadly matches that achieved by Aurangzeb — even more so now that the Sikh farmers of Punjab are up in arms! ”
    Is it , dont think so. Southern part of india had geographical immunity for a long time in history since most of the invaders came via land routes from North western part through silk route till Europeans started ‘discovering ‘ lands via sea route .
    As far as Aurangzeb is concerned, he had control over much larger geographical area than the current boundaries of our country. I think this statement was put solely to irk readers.
    Sad to see editors these days rather than talking facts, keep on painting pictures as per their whims & fancies.
    What a drunk idea of freedom of expression..!!

  5. This Aurangazeb katwaa was a super bandit .He destroyed Hindu temples and killed many hindus.Excellent that he died on 03 march 1707 in Ahmednagar .After death he is enjoying 72 haroons in hell.

  6. While calling BJP a bit player in 4 Southern states, Shri Ninan does not seem to be aware that BJP is in power in Karnataka. And it has so a number of times. Sad to see that personal political ideology of this veteran journalist is clouding his professional judgement.

    • Totally agree , the veteran isnt lucid any longer. Not only is the BJP a dominant party in Karnataka , they have a very good base in Telanagana as well. After Karnataka it will be Telanagana for BJP in south.

  7. Comparing BJP with Aurangazeb? Rage out of control, since you could have named many other Hindu emperors in the past. Sorry, is knowing your names too communal ?

  8. Can any body satisfy every body.bif at all anybody try to do it he will be a failure. As everybody knows the majority Hindus were sidelined all these years. Mouni puppet Singh had the audacity to bring an amendment making the minority having preference in everything whether getting a job government schemes and even in matters of law and order the majority will have a second class citizen treatment. This weak cowardly wimp Mouni a bootlicker of the illiterate Italian ex bar maid Antonio maino really hurt the majority Hindus. They were shocked. They could not believe this blatant appeasement of the already pampered traitors just for votes sake.

  9. The reason hindus vote for BJP is, that the past 70 years hindus feel their religion and identity is systematically getting undermined and subverted by the atheists in a planned manner. Until the systemic bias is cleaned up , other issues will have less weight. Eventually BJP success in achieving ideological goal will ends it’s rule.

    If you want end it faster shed your hypocracy and stand true to your principle irrespective of religion without any appeasement.

  10. True lies and bullying is only short lived they last only till the narrative of one generation leader lasts .The everlasting politics is the one who allows genuine leaders of soil who believe in the Indian diaosphere and is perineal rest are like volcanic eruption fire lava and Ash and is forgotten until the next eruption

  11. Mr Ninan. How is it not good at governance? Didn’t Assam progress under BJP? Why will it be any different in west bengal? It will be better than hafta raj/ cut money raj of TMC/CPM. If anything BJP has provided better infrastructure development and push than any other govts in India. One thing that the BJP can tell with pride is they ve ensured leak proof delivery of services to poor rather than lip service. In Karnataka not only lingayats even castes like vokkaligas and other castes ve voted for Modi. In lok sabha election it won 25 out of 28 seats. That can’t be only coz of lingayat votes. It is wrong to say that BJP is a Hindi party as Modi and Shah are actually Gujaratis. BJP mentor RSS has south indians as main team

    • Well articulated. The author is hell bent on maligning the BJP….No mention of the fact that BJP governance in most states helped in buck anti-incumbency….Such repeated attacks without any evidence actually strengthen the BJP….Modiji will be happy to read this article!!

    • Don’t talk a bout karnatak they are in power because of defections from co ngress samein mp. What infrastructure all started by upa being continued.

  12. Why would one for someone who steels what is legitimately yours?
    (A) Because there is not alternative.
    (B) Because in some way you benefit from the loot.
    Since independence we have only seen the normal which should have been exception, so even to believe that someone can be clean is difficult and takes time.
    Any political party that can bring that narrative and instill confidence in the voter will bring in that seismic shift in India’s politics.

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