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Why Modi govt’s push for electric vehicles alone won’t solve India’s air pollution crisis

Rather than electrifying ‘shared mobility’ such as Uber and Ola, it is essential to improve public transport for better urban air quality.

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India’s recent economic slowdown appears to have taken an unexpected victim — the Narendra Modi government’s electric vehicle (EV) ambitions. Faced with weak exports, declining car sales and widespread layoffs in the automotive sector, the BJP appears to have backtracked on its EV agenda.

Road Transport & Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari confirmed this by stating that the Centre was not setting a specific timeline for the switch to EVs, and would let market forces determine the speed of the transition.

The NITI Aayog had previously drafted an ambitious proposal to ban the sale of non-electric three-wheelers and smaller motorcycles by 2023 and 2025, respectively, and permit the sale of only EVs from 2030.

However, though environmentalists may be disheartened by Gadkari’s latest statement, it isn’t necessarily a setback to India’s air pollution battle. The NITI Aayog’s plan, which made EVs the centrepiece of the air pollution strategy, is unlikely to succeed.


Also read: India may finally race forward in electric cars


Why NITI Aayog plan is doomed

Improving public transport, rather than electrifying ‘shared mobility’, is essential for better urban air quality.

According to reports, the NITI Aayog plans to order Ola and Uber to electrify 40 per cent of their fleet by 2026. The BJP supported this target by only providing fiscal incentives under Phase II of the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME-II) scheme in the four-wheeler segment for commercial taxis and ride-hailing fleets.

In theory, the government’s strategy makes sense. Individual consumers are unlikely to be early EV adopters due to higher costs and range anxiety. In contrast, taxi drivers could benefit from higher fuel savings and low operating costs accrued through longer daily driving distances. Besides, as Uber and Ola cabs mostly operate in densely-congested cities, it could lower vehicular emissions.

In reality, however, the BJP’s strategy is flawed, since it continues to prioritise personal mobility over public transport.

Under FAME-II, incentives are designed to support 10 lakh electric two-wheelers, five lakh three-wheelers, 55,000 four-wheelers, but only 7,000 e-buses. This is worrying since the usage of public transport in urban India has been consistently falling from a high of 60-80 per cent in 1994 to an estimated 25-35 per cent in 2018, mainly due to the lack of adequate city bus infrastructure. The total number of buses has remained flat in the last five years, while the number of two and four-wheelers has been constantly rising, leading to increased congestion. The FAME-II scheme is likely to further this trend by incentivising consumers to opt for EVs in shared mobility fleets, rather than switching to public transport.

This is concerning, since a study found that ride-hailing firms are adding more vehicles to the roads in urban areas, increasing traffic congestion and air pollution. This is acutely felt in India’s densely-congested cities, where ride-hailing firms often compensate for the lack of quality public transport.

Although ride-hailing apps are designed to promote ‘shared mobility’, statistics show that only 25 per cent of riders in India opt for UberPool. The majority of riders take individual rides, contributing to traffic congestion. This also has a knock-on effect on economic productivity, with India’s four major cities losing $22 billion annually due to time lost in traffic — a broader challenge that can’t be addressed by the electrification of shared mobility fleets.

Instead, the BJP must pursue policies that prioritise public transport, such as congestion pricing, improved bus quality, technological innovation and multi-modal transport integration. As Gustavo Petro, the mayor of Bogota, Colombia, once said: “A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It’s where the rich use public transportation.”


Also read: The real reason we’re not driving electric cars


EVs may lead to spike in emissions 

There is a common misconception that EVs are zero-emission vehicles. Although they don’t have any tail-pipe emissions, they still contribute PM emissions through brake and tyre wear and the re-suspension of road dust.

A study found that from 2002-2011, non-exhaust sources (e.g. road dust, brake wear and tyre wear) were responsible for 66-86 per cent of total PM10 emissions from vehicles in Delhi.

Separately, a study in the UK found that EVs tend to be 24 per cent heavier than equivalent internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (due to large batteries), which could necessitate harder braking, and consequently, higher PM emissions. Although there are few EV models to verify this claim in India, it should be noted that the kerb weight of the Mahindra Verito is 1,140kg, while its electric equivalent, the Mahindra eVerito, is significantly heavier at 1,265kg.


Also read: Two-wheelers are the future of electric vehicles in India


Stringent BS-VI standards

Many will argue that EVs can still significantly reduce exhaust emissions from ICE vehicles. That would be true prior to April 2020, the date when all vehicles in India must comply with the stringent BS-VI standards (equivalent to Euro-VI standards).

Under the proposed standards, vehicle manufacturers must install filters that significantly reduce nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and PM emissions. After India’s vehicle fleet transitions to BS-VI standards, non-exhaust sources of emissions are likely to assume greater importance.

Therefore, rather than increasing the number of ‘zero tail-pipe emission’ vehicles, reducing the number of vehicles in urban areas must be the government’s focus to curb urban air pollution. This can be achieved by prioritising public transport and increasing designated cycling and walking paths in cities.

The focus on EVs shouldn’t distract from the broader goal of reducing overall air pollution.


Also read: This is what cheaper and better looking electric vehicles can do for you


Holistic approach needed

Air pollution in India comes from several sources, many of which vary across different cities. A study by IIT-Kanpur found that road and construction dust was the largest contributor (35 per cent) to PM emissions in Delhi. In contrast, vehicles and jeeps only caused 10 per cent of the total pollution. Despite this, the Centre and the state government’s action has primarily targeted vehicular emissions.

The seasonal spike in air pollution across northern Indian cities is a consequence of stubble burning in rural farms, transcending the rural-urban divide. The WHO’s air quality database (as of 2018) showed that all 126 Indian cities exceeded the prescribed guidelines for PM emissions.

Although aggressive EV targets help demonstrate the BJP’s commitment towards tackling air pollution, a holistic approach is required to curb emissions from non-transport sources.

The main reason successive governments have prioritised tackling transport emissions is that they can pass on the costs of compliance onto vehicle manufacturers and ‘wealthier’ consumers. In contrast to this strong EV push, the BJP has reportedly diluted nitrogen oxide emission norms for thermal power plants, after delaying their implementation by five years.

This demonstrates that the government is unwilling to shoulder the burden of reducing emissions from highly polluting state-owned coal power plants. These are located away from urban centres and don’t generate public outrage.

Similarly, the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) targets a 20-30 per cent reduction in PM emissions, but doesn’t offer any concrete solutions or adequate funding (only Rs 300 crore) to achieve the proposed targets.

EVs can certainly play an important role in reducing transport emissions, but they mustn’t represent a one-size-fits-all solution in India’s air pollution battle. Especially in densely-congested cities, high-quality public transport holds the key to a cleaner future.


Also read: Saving the planet with electric cars means strangling this desert


The writer is the founder and CEO of Rethinking Public Policy, a South Asia-focused public policy consulting firm. He writes about innovative public policy ideas on his blog.

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1 COMMENT

  1. Replacing petrol/diesel vehicle with electric vehicle will not reduce air pollution but writing articles criticising the government’s initiatives will surely reduce air pollution. For these worthies of nothing a house is not build brick by brick but by cardboards and prefabricated pillars. This is what ThePrint has to offer as a deep analysis of solutions to air pollution. Indian electorates rightly ignore the analysis and advice from fake left experts and fake journalists .

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