Come December, and there is not much to indicate that China is preparing to back off from its aggressive stance at the Ladakh border, even while it strengthens itself, with a torrent of reports true or untrue, regarding its acquisition of new technology and capabilities. While India is in no mood to give in, the fact remains that with the cost of just maintaining one soldier for one turnaround year estimated at Rs 10 lakh, the price of logistics alone is likely to be enormous. That all of this is occurring at a time when the Indian economy is under strain, only makes the need to find imaginative solutions more pressing. Maybe it’s time not just to ban Chinese companies, but in tandem, invite certain ‘private’ players into non-strategic areas, and complicate decision-making in Beijing. And yes, maybe do a little snooping of our own.
Delhi’s actions so far
At one level, New Delhi’s actions have been praiseworthy. Even while girding itself for a possible war, the Narendra Modi government has also taken the unprecedented decision to ban 267 apps Chinese apps, put limitations on Foreign Direct Investment from neighbours including China, and further scrutinise Foreign Portfolio Investments, among other moves. The extent of Chinese private companies’ investments into India is not entirely clear, and, as Ananth Krishnan observes, is likely to be at least 25 per cent more than official figures pegged at $8 billion. Private money comes in through diverse ways, and not all of it is being stopped anyway. Reports note that the Shanghai Tunnel Construction Co, headquartered in Singapore, which provided the lowest bid, received the contract to build a rapid rail corridor project in June this year. That’s sound business sense. And when the government banned Chinese firms from participating in highway projects in July that was sound strategic sense.
Also read: Not just China, Modi govt is also blocking investments from Hong Kong after Ladakh tension
The CCP wants more
All of this comes at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is moving towards formalising its control over the private sector. The move is also aimed at showing the party’s ability to protect companies, as the US continues to sanction new Chinese entities. The directive calls for the formidable United Front Work Department — an organisation that has been accused of many mala fide actions, from stealing technology to espionage abroad— to increase ideological influence in the private sector. Remember that private enterprise is in a ‘60/70/80/90‘ situation in China, which means it accounts for 60 per cent of GDP, 70 per cent of innovation, 80 per cent of urban employment, and 90 per cent of new jobs. This is this engine of power that the CCP wants to harness for itself.
Not that organisations like Tencent and others are not already involved in assisting the party with surveillance. This augurs a much higher level of control, which is not likely to be viewed with complaisance. In 2015, a jubilant Jack Ma proclaimed: “In the past 20 years, the government was so strong. Now, they are getting weak. It’s our opportunity; it’s our show time, to see how the market economy, entrepreneurship, can develop real consumption”. That was all those years ago. Now it’s payback time.
Also read: China’s comrade billionaires: Even Jack Ma must pledge loyalty to CPC to do business
Chinese weakness to Indian strength
New Delhi has an opportunity for some careful selection at this juncture. That involves letting in certain Chinese private industry into investing in high growth and completely non-strategic areas. For instance, this could include solar power and infrastructure to power the shift to electric vehicles (EVs). Both are areas where China has a huge capability, as well as sectors which the Indian economy needs urgently. The need for reliable power is self-explanatory. Also consider that we continue to rely on dirty coal for 53.4 per cent of total power supply, evident in the onslaught of pollution every year. What is relevant here is that China has begun restricting expansion of its solar industry due to overcapacity. Their situation could encourage deals that stress the ‘Make in India’ option in photovoltaic products, encouraging the vulnerable Chinese industry to kickstart the ailing solar industry in India, even while reducing its own costs.
Another example is the electric car segment, the Economic Survey has proposed that India become the Detroit for electronic vehicles (EVs), with an action plan to ban internal combustion engines for two and three-wheelers by 2025 and 2023 respectively. The Survey however notes that the poor network of battery charging facilities has impeded this sector. At the Beijing Auto Show in September, China released 785 new models of new energy vehicles (NEVs) of which 160 were electrified, and 11,32,000 charging stations already operational in the country. But as experts point out, the sector is heavily dependant on subsidies, even as it struggles to catch up with giants such as Tesla and Mercedes. The tie up is obvious. Both countries want lower oil bills, and China at least is concentrating on cleaning up the environment. Unlike India, it has realised the economic costs of heavy pollution.
These are just two examples, but there are a hundred other sectors where Chinese private sector is ailing, and which are entirely non-strategic, where it is difficult to envisage the fell hand of Chinese snooping or influence-creating difficulties.
Also read: China’s Hikvision controls India’s surveillance market. Modi needs to do more than ban apps
Have your cake and eat it too
The point here is that India – together with several developed countries – is already heavily interwoven into the Chinese manufacturing and industrial capabilities, including even in mundane areas like Paracetamol and Ibrubrufen, to make complete ‘decoupling’ almost impossible. In that case, we may as well encourage specific private companies that are in trouble at home to find a nest in India, to an extent that they will be future ‘leverage’ in difficult situations, which are certain to come up. It may even be that a sufficient private role – imbued with a heavy government hand – may have a deterrent effect on military adventuring in Beijing. It can be argued that India is too small a market for that impact. But equally, our border disputes are also in the same bracket of ‘small incursions’ unlike the serious potential problem of the South China Sea.
It could more seriously be argued that this could work in reverse, to allow China to ‘play’ us with economic engagement. That’s where the economic strategists of ‘Make in India’ need to weigh in, making sure that Beijing will pay a price for such activity. Meanwhile, India should draw in Chinese businesses for achieving our larger objectives, even as we need to hone up our capabilities to do some snooping of our own. Two can play at that game. Meanwhile remember that in 2008, it was a Chinese stimulus that rescued the world from a financial crisis. Use China to get where you want to go, together with careful scrutiny on just who should be invited in. In simple words, New Delhi should aim to have its cake and eat it too. That’s the best economics there is.
The author is former director, National Security Council Secretariat. Views are personal.
It is simple. China is a hegemonic power bent on conquest. That means humiliating and defeating India. It is an existential threat.
The threat is as real as Kauravas to Pandavas. No negotiation is possible.
Unless India becomes part of west security bloc there is no peace. So called strategic ambiguity is same as small hindu kings isolated fighting against Islamic conquest. A empire can be fought only with a bigger empire.
If not heeded all indians may as well learn Chinese. Knowling my fellow indians they will emigrate to china also.
You have the very weak Hindu mentality that you decry !
‘So called strategic ambiguity is same as small hindu kings isolated fighting against Islamic conquest. A empire can be fought only with a bigger empire.’
So bring back British Empire or another East India Company from the west to protect you from China.
Do you know the contradiction in your Hindu character ? You yourself believe you are weak and incapable, and you need someone else’s protection. You may be able to get protection, but there will be a cost.
And what happened to your grand standing about being a Hindu superpower led by the 56 inch chowkidar ? The vishwa guru that will teach the west ?
It looks like you do not have confidence in the Hindu chowkidar. You conclude ‘Knowling my fellow indians they will emigrate to china also.’
Writer is full of confused mind like chaotic chaukidar feku Godi RSS gov.
When China offer India co-harmony prosperity in Asia Century & Wuhan-Chennai friendship up to last year, even volunteered as middle man for India-Pak peace talk, India joined USM QUAD and signed 4 defense pacts to threaten its existential sea trade security & Tibet.
Last yr India cross all redlines to abolished art370, illegally annexed J&K and Ladakh against UN laws, even included China Arsai Chin into its new map with Amit Shah boasting to take it & destroy CPEC.
Then India inaugurated a new road encroached into Nepal borderland right up to Arsai Chin to threaten China only strategic highway linking Xinjiang & Tibet.
India is hell bent to sabotage China’s SCO, BRICS, CPEC, and BRI. It finally revealed its US position to sabotage RCEP suddenly by making unacceptable blackmail demand to all members, like India rts to snapback tariffs & free quota for Indians to work in their country.
When China was first hit with COVID crisis, sadistic India was so ecstasy to ban all medical export & cotton to China immediately, calling the world to strip China’s supply chain for India.
Multiple India army incursions were then made into China’s LAC to land grabbed since Feb, perceiving China will be too tied down by COVID crisis.
Alas angry dragon gave India a befitting bloody nose in April. Ladakh perpetual standoff is the beginning of punishment India has self inflicted.
It will bleed India not just $2.6Bils p.a. to upkeep 200,000 troops, but tens of $Bils in arms race to deny India meaningful development.
As some India military analysts had said, China will be ready to punish India by 2024 after completing its army modernization, with once & for all unlike 1962.
China may start to equip NEastern states freedom fighters in Nagaland & Assam, J&K, Sikkim in response to India playing Tibet, Taiwan, Uyghur & HK cards. It will help modernized Pak, J&K, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Myanmar army for multi fronts war, as all are anguished victims of India invasion since 1947.
Now that India is facing double quarter economy dip of 25%, a recession, it has doubled down by banning all China Apps & investments,the only nation still flush with capital and technology.
But writer is proposing here to let China investments return to non important sectors that are not interests of Ambani & Adoni.
Will Chinese so foolish to invest again on such unattractive sectors after seeing how unhinged is India RSS gov in its Chanakya expansionism & Hindutva radicalized population, where a big scale decisive war to crush India is looming in few yrs time?
Tata is now trying to buy up Alibaba’s BIGbusket at 10% of its worth, imitating Trump’s despise way of trying to plunder Tiktok. The world is watching India gov behavior.
With Modi RSS gov, India needs no enemies.
Well written ! The Hindus are day dreaming, a little bit of power and money (obtained during the period of MMS) has gone to their head. They elected an uneducated chai wallah, a genocidist, and are very proud of him, they think he has made India a vishwa guru. After the beating in Galwan, their 56 inch chowkidar kept quiet, but they imagine he is working on a solution to beat China.
The article represents the confused state of the Hindu mind : on the one hand lauding Modi the chowkidar with 56 inch chest who is standing up to China by barring Chinese Apps and some companies, while at the same time asking for loopholes for some Chinese companies in ‘non-strategic sectors’. On the one hand boasting that India is not in a mood to back down at the LAC, but at the same time admitting that the cost of stationing the soldiers is unaffordable. China can just start a arms race and force India’s economy down.
A little bit of money and power goes to the Hindu head. Then they start misbehaving with minorities, and with neighbours. But when confronted with a powerful country like China or US, they are meek. China has thoroughly exposed the Hindutva Hindus are paper tigers.
Atleast we haven’t sold our soul and parts of our country to china in the hope of an imaginary Economic corridor which will supposedly bring prosperity… The only reality for Pakistan is a mounting circular debt, an economy permanently in ICU and an increasing master slave relationship with China.. Enjoy till the land you own remains yours….you never know when it will be taken.
one day u become a editor of globletimes.
Only danger is next government. God forbid, if next is a non BJP government, then it’s free for all. Will give next govt a path to profit by selling Indian interest. Just look around and see who makes up for opposition in India.
china marketing only….
It seems your newspaper is either owned or backed by Congress, Communists or other muslim organization who are enamoured by China. China funds all these categories. China has bribed congress by providing funds to Congress related organization’s which were ultimately siphoned off by Italian family. China and Pakistan are enemy countries and treated as such. There should be no truck with them. Their embassies must be closed forthwith till our land is returned. Any Pakistani or Chinese staying in India should simply be executed. Please keep stupid philosophies within your brain. Traito.
Excellent ideas. We need to do the same to the Chinese, as they have done to the West. And in this “short-term” reliance on Chinese industry is meaningful. We must adopt the Chinese model of JV partnering, technology transfer, reskilling and training of manufacturing workers, and the creation of whole vertical of product manufacturing (in this case Solar PV panels to solar farms, and EV from battery to car to charging infrastructure) – in the same manner the Chinese did with the West.
This will give us the tech, the progress, the jobs and down the road the political and economic leverage to engage with the Chinese. We can always keep a big stick behind our back for any eventuality.
We dont need chinese firms in india for solar panels or evs,our indian entrepreneurs like adani and mahindra tata are more than capable of using it to grow themselves and form a sustainable infrastructure,we need indian companies not chinese.
We dont need chinese firms in india for solar panels or evs,our indian entrepreneurs like adani and mahindra tata are more than capable of using it to grow themselves and form a sustainable infrastructure,we need indian companies not chinese.
In any case, India hardly matters to China for its exports but India as a huge trade deficit of USD 60 billion with it . Therefore, after the recent events on Ladakh LAC, there is no point in India extending any warm treatment to even its private sector industries , unless in cases where imports are absolutely essential. We should decouple from China asap but focus actively on ASEAN, USA and Europe.
I could not grasp any idea. Did I miss read or titles were catchy and that was end of it.
Stupid idea. Author Don’t have any idea about CCP mindset. He just have to look at Jack Ma’s recent world record breaking IPO cancellation. Modi can’t do the same with Ambani’s 35 billion dollars IPO. CCP don’t bother for petty money when they consider that will collide with theirs strategic objectives.