The BJP and the Shiv Sena have not always been on the same political page, but stayed in alliance out of compulsion.
Uddhav Thackeray is the new Hamlet in Maharashtra politics, and his dilemma is: To be or not to be an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2019 general election. The BJP faces no such problem with the Shiv Sena, but it is Uddhav Thackeray who is blowing hot and cold on the question and has been attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi since the last one year.
First, Uddhav Thackeray thundered that the Shiv Sena will fight on its own and show the BJP its place. Then, he echoed the Rahul Gandhi slogan: “Chowkidar Chor Hai!”
That was the unkindest cut of all.
BJP president Amit Shah retorted by saying: “If the allies join us, we will ensure their win, or else we will defeat them (patak denge)”.
And no, the seat-sharing negotiation between the BJP and the Shiv Sena is not the problem here. Among allies, seat sharing process is always a subject of intense tussle. It is only a cover, a kind of an excuse for public consumption. It is the far-deeper issues that make or break political alliances.
A reliable ally?
Every time there is a discussion on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Shiv Sena invariably finds a mention as a ‘loyal and reliable ally’ of the BJP. This term is a misnomer. The two Hindutva parties have always shared an uncomfortable relationship. The BJP-Sena alliance swept the state in 2014 Lok Sabha election, but headed for a divorce four months later. They fought the assembly election that year on their own.
On earlier occasions too, the Shiv Sena has not been a ‘loyal and reliable’ ally. The Sena supported the Congress candidates for President’s post – it backed Pratibha Patil in 2007 and Pranab Mukherjee in 2012 over Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and P.A. Sangma. The BJP leadership had threatened to break the alliance over this issue, but the Sena remained firm.
Indeed, when then-Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi was widely projected as the NDA’s possible prime ministerial candidate, Bal Thackeray declared Sushma Swaraj as his pick for the top job.
The BJP and the Shiv Sena have not always been on the same political page, but stayed in alliance out of compulsion. They have understood the basic poll arithmetic – united they can ride to power, and divided they are likely to fall.
Another feature that binds them together is the legacy of ‘anti-Congressism’. It is this legacy that brought the regional parties under the National Front and the BJP together during V.P. Singh’s tenure.
Why they are different
The Sena, however, is not a regional party in the traditional sense of the term, unlike the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) or the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). It does not have a pan-Maharashtra appeal, and its influence is restricted to Mumbai and neighbouring Thane. That is because Mumbai, more than any other district in the state, has largely been at the centre of the ‘Maharashtra for Marathi-speaking’ movement, the Sena’s dominant ideology since its inception in 1960s.
Also read: To keep Thackeray alive, Shiv Sena must go beyond Balasaheb’s legacy
The underlying tension between the present leadership of the Sena and the BJP can also be traced to this movement for a separate state of Maharashtra. It led to hostility between the two dominant linguistic communities in the Bombay state of that time, Marathis and Gujaratis.
The Marathi anger had a class dimension too. Most of the businesses and industry were owned and controlled by Gujaratis and Marwaris, while the Marathi-speaking population in Mumbai largely comprised of workers and labourers.
This Gujarati-Marathi divide perhaps is also at play when Uddhav Thackeray targets Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, who are seen as representatives of Gujaratis.
The Sena in its early years was hostile to the Sangh Parivar. On the other hand, the RSS and Jana Sangh believed that they were pan-India organisations and could not support a ‘Marathi manoos’ campaign.
By the ‘80s, both the Sena and the Sangh had recognised the need to come together to challenge the Congress in the state. While the former lacked an upper caste base, the latter wanted to reach out to the working class of Mumbai.
Within a decade, they became a force to reckon with and the Sena-BJP aliance won the 1995 assembly election against the backdrop of Babri demolition in 1992. Although the alliance was cemented by power, the two parties were culturally different.
The Shiv Sena was born on the streets unlike the BJP. The Hindutva ideology seemed to unite them, but their DNA was different.
Also read: I asked Balasaheb Thackeray, “Are you a mafioso?” — and lived to tell the tale
Change in power dynamics
Uddhav Thackeray’s existential dilemma is a result of this history. In the ‘80s, the BJP leveraged the mass base of the Sena and the charisma of Bal Thackeray to grow in Maharashtra. The Sena, therefore, considers itself the elder brother in the alliance. But since 2014, the tide has turned and the BJP is now in power at the Centre and has outperformed the Sena in the state too. It wants to show the Shiv Sena its place – that of a junior partner.
What will Uddhav Thackeray do? Well, I can stick my neck out and say that the political compulsions will force Uddhav to eat humble pie and be ready for an alliance with the BJP. But if the power equation at the Centre changes in May, then the two allies will have to redefine their relationship.
Kumar Ketkar is a former editor and Congress member of Rajya Sabha.
Describes the dilemma and compulsionsof SENA BJP to come together !one is a regional party other is a national party ! Sena has mumbai but. Not state power and wants it where as Modi Amit shah want Mumbai so the tussle is on! But anti congressism anti Dalit anti Muslim thinking cement s the bond!
This is a sensible article by Kumar Ketkar and describes historical evolution of ties between BJP and Sena. One ought to agree with his conclusion that finally there is no choice for these parties but to come together either before or after elections, despite snide remarks against each other by their top leadership. I hope Ketkar writes such articles in future and not waste his time on writing wishful but utterly stupid thoughts on Modi.
Electorates have a to make tough choice.Choose between A couple of uncomfortable political bed partners OR comfortable multiple partners under a single bedsheet.
The Shiv Sena needs the alliance even more desperately than the BJP does. What is surprising is the lack of grace in acknowledging this fact of life, in renegotiating the terms within the bounds of coalition dharma. The Congress – NCP will put up a good fight in the state.
How can an extortionist goonda be compared to the prince of Denmark? This writer, after selling himself to the Congress is suddenly turning lyrical!