The no confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government was expected to be defeated. It would have been one of the greatest wonders had the opposition succeeded in dismissing this government like the three out of 27 motions moved in the past—VP Singh government in 1990, Deve Gowda government in 1997 and Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 1999.
Veteran Congress leader Manish Tewari had said, “When there will be division on the motion in the Lok Sabha, morality will be tested and it will be incumbent upon every MP to take a ‘personal position’.” This was enough signal to the opposition members to use their ‘moral compass’ rather than party’s diktat. The fear of exposing the chinks in their armour might have prompted the opposition to stage a walk out.
Besides the seats’ arithmetic, it was a free-for-all debate with no specific anti-government agenda. What was meant to dent the Modi government’s popularity may have possibly ended up in raising it a few notches up, especially at a time when the Manipur issue and the rising prices could have been popular sticks to beat the government with. Moreover, the prime minister castigated the opposition for running away from a full debate on Manipur suggested by the Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah. Modi strategically explained the government’s stand on Manipur, condemned the riots and other heinous acts and hoped peace will return soon. He sought the support of the House for the state to return to normalcy and path of progress soon. He also said that the northeast will become the centre stage of economic development in South East Asia.
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Disunited opposition
There were several shortcomings on the part of the opposition, right from the time it decided to move the no-confidence motion. There was no commonly agreed agenda, no united leadership to lead the attack and no homework done to increase the strength of anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition in the Lok Sabha. As against this, the two BJP veterans, Modi and Shah, tore the opposition—especially the Congress—into smithereens. Not one speaker in the combined opposition could either add content to his or her speech or put forward a strong argument against the government; high on decibels, low on content.
The opposition parties’ objectives were also not united. If the Congress wanted to pit Rahul Gandhi against the Modi-Shah duo, it was a colossal failure and nothing else.
If relaunching Gandhi was one of the prime objectives of the Congress, then it has failed on two counts. The first is that it was a miserable attempt. He appeared to be speaking about his experience with “Bharat Jodo Yatra” for almost 20 minutes in the beginning of his speech. Gandhi did go to Manipur and managed to get maximum publicity for it. One would have expected him to ask people for solutions, study the issues in Manipur, complete his homework, and suggest at least five or 10-point resolution to the problem. But he appears to have overlooked all.
His comparison of Modi to Raavan and display of low-level theatrics were pedestrian, to say the least. Modi needed no extra time or effort to prepare his repartee.
Can the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in its new avatar of over two dozen parties halt the BJP at some inconvenient number like below two hundred-mark in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls by fielding common candidates? It seems fine in theory but difficult in practice. The I.N.D.I.A alliance at the national level looks like a meeting of apex leaders who have no local roots, where the political equations are very different. For example, in a strange twist of coalition politics, the BJP, Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) joined hands against the state’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) to form three of the many Gram Panchayat Boards after the recently concluded local elections.
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No time to rest
On its part, it is a walkover for the BJP as the no-confidence motion was moved by a not-so-confident and disunited opposition with objectives far from bringing the government down.
The BJP will be ill advised to be complacent and rest on its oars after this easy victory in Lok Sabha. There are past instances of governments falling inversely proportional to the rise in prices of essential commodities. The Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government lost to a leaderless opposition just because two major members of the alliance drew a blank in the 2004 polls. The lesson for the BJP is that it will have to contest more than 350 seats on its own and win all of them or at least cross the 300-mark.
The no-confidence motion has emerged as a boon for the ruling party, allowing it to launch an attack on the opposition and blow the 2024 Lok Sabha election bugle. The massive edifice of Ram Mandir would be inaugurated early next year. With the passing of Uniform Civil Code (UCC), the BJP will have resolved all legacy issues. It will give the party time and opportunity to catapult the country’s economy to be the third largest in the world.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)