There is a joke doing the rounds in the Bharatiya Janata Party circles. It’s about Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai. The joke goes that he might be spending sleepless nights since Wednesday. For the uninitiated, it didn’t make sense initially. Annamalai is a star today. His ‘En Mann En Makkal’ yatra was a big success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in fact, went to Tiruppur for the concluding rally. “Didn’t you see how many times the PM patted Annamalai on the back in Tiruppur?” I countered the BJP functionary who told me the joke.
“Precisely the point. Ask (Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal) Khattar,” he replied with a mischievous smile. PJ for sure, but I got it.
On Tuesday, a day before Khattar had to resign, Modi was all praise for him as he recalled how his “old partner” drove him around on a motorcycle all over the state. Modi said that “the future of every Haryanvi is safe” under Khattar’s leadership.
A day later, Khattar was replaced. “Usi ko toh Narendra Modi kehte hain,” Union Home Minister Amit Shah said at a media conclave when asked how things changed for Khattar within a day.
Khattar’s removal wasn’t necessarily about his performance, although it did follow the emerging pattern of changing CMs a few months before elections to beat anti-incumbency—like in Uttarakhand, Gujarat, and Tripura. It was more about resetting a Jat-versus-non-Jat contest in 2024 by installing a Backward Class leader, Nayab Singh Saini, as the CM. Backward Classes (BCs) are estimated to constitute around 35-40 per cent of Haryana population, while the Jats comprise 20-22 per cent. Sainis were at the receiving end of the violent Jat agitation for BC reservation in 2016. Khattar is a Punjabi Khatri who belongs to the general category. For all we know, come June, Modi’s ‘old partner’ might figure in his Cabinet with a heavyweight portfolio.
So, no, the joke is not on Annamalai. Khattar’s ouster is a message to another BJP star, BL Santhosh, the national general secretary (organisation). It revalidates the fact that when it comes to the BJP’s interest, Modi doesn’t allow anyone or anything to come in the way—no friend, no family, no ego, no emotions. Few would know it better than former Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel, Modi’s protégé, who was once considered as powerful as, if not more than, Amit Shah. Modi let go of her in 2016, 15 months before the assembly elections. She was very upset, but she didn’t fit into the BJP’s scheme for the next polls.
She was later rehabilitated in the Uttar Pradesh Raj Bhavan as the governor, of course.
Also read: How RSS pracharak BL Santhosh has emerged as BJP’s ‘rock star’ general secretary
Santhosh vs Yediyurappa
BL Santhosh should have realised long ago that anyone is valuable to Modi-Shah only as long as they are useful to the BJP. Santhosh lost their trust when he used it to settle scores with former Karnataka chief minister BS Yediyurappa, leading to the party’s loss in that state. As it is, Santhosh seems to have lost in what might be the fourth round of their two-decade-long bout. Santhosh was once a rock star in the BJP, flying from one state capital to another, calling Union ministers and chief ministers to sanctuaries for meetings, pulling up lawmakers and leaders alike.
He was virtually No 3 in the BJP after PM Modi and Amit Shah, given that the party president JP Nadda is a titular head. Shah had brought him from Karnataka to Delhi in 2014 by appointing him as the joint general secretary (organisation). The next nine years were a dream run for Santhosh. He wielded enormous power as Modi-Shah’s confidante and maintained a high profile. So much so that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which had sent him on deputation to the BJP, started feeling uncomfortable.
Cut to March 2024; he has little or no say in the party’s ticket distribution—not even in Karnataka, his home state, of which he aspired to be the CM. Worse for him, it’s Yediyurappa who is calling the shots. Look at the ex-CM’s clout today. He is a member of the BJP’s parliamentary board. His son, BY Vijayendra, is the Karnataka BJP president. His other son, Raghavendra, has been renominated as the party candidate in Shimoga. His close aide, Shobha Karandlaje, who faced adverse winds in the Udupi-Chikmagalur constituency, has been nominated in Bengaluru North, a safe constituency. It’s quite a turn of fortune for someone who had broken down after announcing his resignation as the CM in July 2021. That was Santhosh’s victory in what was the third round of their bout.
The first round had started after 2006 when Santhosh became the general secretary (organisation) in the Karnataka BJP, and began nursing chief ministerial ambitions. His feedback to the RSS and the central BJP leadership laid the ground for Yediyurappa’s resignation as CM in 2011, following his indictment in a corruption case. Santhosh emerged victorious in the first round. Yediyurappa quit the BJP, formed his own party, and ensured the BJP’s defeat in the next assembly election. This prompted Modi, then the party’s prime ministerial candidate, to get him back in 2014. Shah brought Santhosh to Delhi a few months later. That was the beginning of the second round of their bout, which saw many see-saws. Yediyurappa won this round, returning as the CM in 2019. His ouster from the chair two years later ended the third round with Santhosh’s win.
As the fourth round is underway, Yediyurappa is on top again. He has been instrumental in the denial of tickets to many leaders promoted by Santhosh. Sitting BJP MPs Nalin Kateel and Pratap Simha were considered ‘definite winners,’ but Yediyurappa forced Modi-Shah to bench them. CT Ravi, once a powerful national general secretary who targeted Yediyurappa’s ‘dynasty,’ is also on the bench without any party role.
Former deputy CM KS Eshwarappa is publicly blaming Yediyurappa for his son, KE Kantesh, not receiving a party ticket to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Haveri. “If you tear my heart open, you will find Shri Ramachandra on one side and Modi on the other. But if you do the same with Yediyurappa, you will find his two children on one side and Shobha (Karandlaje) on the other. I am not saying this, but the workers are,” Eshwarappa said on Friday, declaring his intention to contest as an independent candidate from Shimoga.
Also read: How BL Santhosh has finally trumped Yediyurappa & is now BJP’s go-to man in Karnataka
Final winner in Santhosh-Yediyurappa battle?
These rumblings haven’t dented Yediyurappa’s clout, as Modi and Shah have given him carte blanche in this Lok Sabha election. The BJP won 26 (including an independent) out of 28 seats in 2019. They want the party to maintain this. Yediyurappa is making the best of the carte blanche. He is doing to Santhosh’s loyalists in this election what the latter had done to his loyalists in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections.
Santhosh messed it up in 2023. Yediyurappa had better not mess it up in 2024. With Modi-Shah turning cold and the Sangh unhappy, Santhosh is staring at an uncertain future. Can he regain Modi-Shah’s trust? It’s as difficult as gaining it, but who can read their minds? That’s little comfort to Yediyurappa. At 81, this election is his last hurrah. Win or lose, there will be a question mark on the octogenarian’s political utility. And he is not even an old partner of Modi like Khattar was.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)