I am surprised that the Narendra Modi government, which since May 2014 enmeshed the armed forces with its neo-nationalist ideology and politically exploited them as never before, has not used them in its fight against the Covid-19 pandemic to inspire confidence in the public. I am equally surprised that the Chief of Defence Staff, Bipin Rawat, and the three service chiefs — all of whom in the recent past have been very vocal in media — have said little in the public domain about their immense capacity and readiness to fight epidemics like coronavirus.
The reason is that the Modi government, true to its form, has not included the armed forces in the decision-making process. This is evident from the absence of their representation in the 11 empowered groups set up last Sunday to coordinate the management and control of the Covid-19 disease across India. This is when the armed forces have the capacity to directly influence almost all domains of the empowered groups.
Apart from India’s strategy and capacity to fight Covid-19, the crucial determinant in performance is going to be the trust the public reposes in the Modi government. And it is this trust that the armed forces can help reinforce. A case in point is the sad saga of the migrant labourers, who having lost their livelihood began to walk hundreds of kilometres to their homes after the government announced the 21-day nationwide lockdown with only four hours of notice.
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Strategy without thought
The large-scale exodus of unorganised sector workers and their families from relatively prosperous states to reach their villages in Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, and Jharkhand among others is a classic case of executing a strategy without taking the risk factors into account and without any contingency plans. The migrant labourers had no faith in the state governments to give them shelter and feed them for the duration of the lockdown. The knee-jerk response of the state governments to undertake damage control measures unfolded a tragedy that will haunt India for a long time. Even a week after the exodus began, there seems to be no end in sight.
Indian armed forces had the capacity to control the situation within 48 hours. The Army has many cantonments and military stations housing major formations along or within striking distance of the affected highways of migration. The Army would have in situ quickly set up makeshift quarantine camps under tents or in requisitioned buildings complete with toilets, water and lighting arrangements to isolate, shelter and feed the affected migrants. Of course. it would have shown the state governments in poor light but that is a non-issue when you have to tackle a disaster of this magnitude.
The gains of an early lockdown decision are likely to be negated by this unforeseen migration. Non-deployment of the Army is an error of judgement that the Modi government will rue in the coming months.
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Phenomenal capacity of the armed forces
The Modi government and the Indian public must know the phenomenal capacity of the armed forces to fight a crisis like the coronavirus pandemic. They have 1.5 million soldiers/airmen/sailors spread across every state of India. The strength of the military is its organisation, training and speed. There is no place in India that the military cannot reach within six hours. Armed forces have 13,200 doctors/specialists/nurses supported by 1,00,000 trained medical staff. The Indian military is self-contained for mobility and logistics, which can be enhanced by the use of aircraft and helicopters.
With its resources duly supplemented with necessary medical and other equipment, which can be doubled by calling in the reserves and volunteers, the military can do the following:
• Make available two-thirds capacity of its 130 military hospitals and create additional 100 field hospitals, which can be set up anywhere in India at 24 hours’ notice. The field hospitals can be used as a mobile reserve to be deployed in areas considered ‘hotspots’ for the coronavirus.
• The capacity of 720 district hospitals can be trebled by army engineers with prefabricated shelters. Military medical teams also enhance their efficiency.
• Large scale testing and vaccination can be carried out by the military’s medical teams.
• Army engineers can modify buildings into hospitals exclusively for Covid-19 cases using prefabricated material as has been done in the UK.
• Large quarantine facilities can be created, in addition to the 15 already functional, to cater to the community transmission stage.
• Military logistics systems can be utilised to supplement the civil supply chain to ensure door-to-door supplies during the lockdowns or when large areas are placed under in situ quarantine. The military can also run large scale free kitchens as per government directions.
• The military can assist the civilian authority in maintaining law and order and enforce total or selective lockdown.
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When and how to use armed forces
The question is if the central and state governments have the necessary infrastructure and resources, and are so far managing the Covid-19 crisis well, then why deploy the armed forces, their immense capacity notwithstanding?
There is no doubt that the current situation — local transmission stage — is being managed well by the state governments. Thus, on the face of it, if at all the resources of the armed forces have to be deployed, then it should be at the community transmission stage. But the community transmission stage is inevitable and given our low testing rate, the transition will be very rapid and overwhelm the existing resources as has happened elsewhere in the world, including in developed countries. At the community transmission stage, the deployment will not optimise the capabilities of the armed forces since they would get sucked into unplanned crisis management.
It would be more prudent for the Modi government to include the armed forces in the decision-making process without delay and decide the manner in which to utilise their capacity. The armed forces then must immediately begin to prepare for and adapt to the assigned role. By the time we enter the full-blown community transmission stage, the military should be seamlessly working with the civil administration. Needless to mention that a part of the military capacity must be kept as a reserve to cater for the unforeseen.
The Indian military is held in very high esteem by the public. Its very presence inspires confidence. I recommend that the military must be immediately integrated by the Modi government to supplement the resources of the state in this fight against the coronavirus.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.