New Delhi: After completing his first state-visit to China with great pomp and show, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu returned to Male to take stock of the soured relations with India.
The ties between the two countries were already on rocky ground, with Muizzu demanding Indian troops leave the island nation and his government not renewing an agreement allowing India to conduct hydrographic surveys in Maldivian waters. But over the last six days, more dominoes have fallen in quick succession. The question is: will Muizzu pick up the pieces or leave them where they are?
The latest controversy was triggered by disparaging remarks made by three Muizzu ministers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indians at large. References to Indians drinking cow urine were a low blow but it wasn’t until Indians on social media began encouraging a tourism boycott of Maldives that Male issued a statement distancing itself from the ministers’ remarks and then suspended them.
Some Maldivian MPs like Eva Abdullah suggested issuing a formal apology to India, and former vice president Ahmed Adeeb told me in an interview that all of this could’ve been avoided if Muizzu had rang Modi.
But that’s wishful thinking.
If Muizzu’s latest trip is any indication, it’s that he’s unabashedly in China’s camp. He praised China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and, in what was perceived as a slight to India, called for Beijing to reclaim its number one spot as the country sending most tourists to Maldives. (Last year, India held the top spot with over 2 lakh tourists flocking to the island nation).
Sure, Muizzu and Modi had a sit-down on the sidelines of COP28 in Dubai last month, but his interaction with Chinese First Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang at the same event was far warmer. China-Maldives relations will “thrive” under Muizzu’s leadership, a statement from the President’s Office shortly after the meeting said.
With Bollywood celebrities like Akshay Kumar weighing in on the controversy, hashtag #BoycottMaldives trending on social media, Indian travel agencies cancelling flights to Male, and Indian news outlets keenly covering every facet of Muizzu’s visit to China makes the island nation ThePrint’s Newsmaker of the Week.
Shrinking space for diplomatic manoeuvring
By choosing China as his first official foreign visit since assuming office, Muizzu immediately set himself apart from his predecessors, most of whom picked India for their first trip. Even former president Abdulla Yameen, viewed as pro-China who even scuttled defence deals with New Delhi, had picked India as his first state visit in 2013.
That said, reports indicate that Muizzu’s government reached out to New Delhi in November for dates on a proposed visit. Did New Delhi respond with radio silence?
Even if it did, one may argue that a line in the sand had already been drawn at Muizzu’s swearing-in ceremony, which Modi skipped. The ceremony was attended by Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju instead. It was during this meeting that Male formally requested India to withdraw military personnel from the island nation, which was Muizzu’s step in the “India-out” campaign. Inherited from Yameen, this campaign wasn’t just election rhetoric; Muizzu meant business.
Now that he has inked 20 agreements with China, including one on grant assistance, the space for diplomatic manoeuvring with India has only shrunk.
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If we look at Muizzu’s long-standing ties with China, his tenure as housing and infrastructure minister from 2012-2018 under Yameen’s government is telling. He travelled regularly to China to coordinate projects and also attended inaugural events organised by China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) when he served as the Governor to the AIIB from Maldives.
Muizzu’s work on the Sinamale bridge was arguably his biggest achievement. Originally called “China-Maldives Friendship Bridge”, which links the islands of Malé, Hulhulé and Hulhumalé in the Maldives, was inaugurated in August 2018 after Muizzu undertook many trips to Beijing to meet with senior Chinese officials. The bridge was contracted to China’s CCCC Second Harbour Engineering Company Limited. It was also financed by China — about $116 million as grant aid and $72 million as concessionary loans. Male had to cover the remaining $12 million.
There was a time when Maldives, under Yameen, went on a “borrowing spree”, as described by a report published in a US military-sponsored magazine. Yameen had also pushed a law in 2015, allowing foreigners to own land in the Maldives for the first time. New Delhi was incensed. In 2017, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mobashar Jawed ‘MJ’ Akbar had, during an official visit to the Maldives, expressed concern that China may leverage the bill to expand its military influence in the region.
While enthusiastic about China-funded projects, Muizzu has not expressed the same sentiment over India-assisted infrastructure projects in the Maldives, including the $500 million Greater Male Connectivity Project (or Thilamale Bridge project). He has previously argued that agreements for the project have not been disclosed despite Right to Information (RTI) requests.
“We will study what is in the agreement and fix anything that does not benefit the people,” he said last August while on the campaign trail, promising to end “non-beneficial” foreign pacts.
Though Muizzu’s government had spoken about its intention to “expedite” the India-funded project last November, one could question whether this thinking still sticks, especially after his China visit where he heaped praise on BRI and cited two projects as being in line with BRI’s vision.
Muizzu has clearly adopted Yameen’s pro-China leanings, especially as the latter couldn’t run for elections after being convicted on money laundering charges for which he is currently under house arrest. “President Yameen’s government maintained very close relations with China. That is in the best interest of this country,” Muizzu said last August.
When I interviewed the former Maldivian vice president, he expressed concerns that Muizzu could be leading the Maldivian economy into a Chinese debt trap, similar to Sri Lanka. This was a concern during Yameen’s tenure too. “It looks like both Maldives and Sri Lanka are moving in the same direction as the African nations that had received Chinese “generosity”. While the Yameen administration is peddling a policy of rapid development, no Maldivian would be content if that development came with strings attached,” Maldivian journalist Rushdha Rasheed had written in an op-ed for news outlet Raaje in 2017.
But Muizzu is pursuing a more aggressive, overt relationship with Beijing than his mentor. Out of the 20 agreements he signed after talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, one was for grant assistance, though the amount wasn’t disclosed. This, despite China being Maldives’ largest external creditor and IMF data showing the small nation owes Beijing roughly $1.3 billion.
Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)
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