The foremost foreign policy challenge for the new Narendra Modi government will be to adapt to a changing world order. While the Western dominance diminishes, there is no emerging power or powers capable of inheriting its mantle. The current phase of disruption and altered relations among states is likely to continue.
It is also becoming clear that the US and China are moving from competition to confrontation. Balancing relations with both will become more difficult and India will have to contend with pressures to join one camp or another.
The China challenge
While dealing with China has always remained one of the biggest foreign policy challenges for India, the asymmetry in economic and military capabilities between the two Asian giants is expanding rather than shrinking.
Currently, China has been presenting a more benign and accommodating face to India. This is a result of the pressures from the US not only in trade but also in the realm of security. This stance is tactical, but India should take advantage of it while being aware of the long-term challenge of narrowing the power gap with China.
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India’s sub-continental neighbourhood is the most critical for its national security and China’s presence and activism threatens India’s dominant position. India is unable to match the resources China is able to deploy in the countries of the region. This trend is unlikely to change even if China adopts a relatively friendly posture towards India.
Dealing with Pakistan & the Gulf
Pakistan is unlikely to abandon its use of cross-border terrorism as an instrument of state policy although there may be tactical remissions. Despite the Modi government adopting a more aggressive retaliatory policy, it is debatable whether this has changed the strategic calculus in Islamabad.
The Gulf and West Asia remain important for India’s energy security, for the welfare of the nearly six million Indians who live and work there, and also because sectarian conflict in the region can have spillover effects on the fragile multi-religious fabric of the Indian state.
The new government will have to deal with the ratcheting up of sanctions against Iran by the US. Iran is important to India not only for its energy needs but also because of the stakes involved in the Chabahar port and the Northern highway into Afghanistan and Central Asia from it. It will also play an important role in Afghanistan where a political transition may be inevitable and the Taliban may regain a key role.
Also read: Afghanistan’s hope for peace rests on how India, Pakistan and China deal with each other
‘Neighbourhood first’ needs a push
Against this background, the new government must add substance and energy to the “neighbourhood first” policy. Fresh emphasis must be placed on regular political-level engagement and expanding the density of economic and trade relations with neighbours.
Proximity is a key asset in promoting economic relations. India is the transit country for all its neighbours and its transport infrastructure is more than adequate to handle transit traffic. India will gain more political leverage with its neighbours by becoming their transit country of choice than by restricting access.
India’s economic cooperation programmes in its neighbouring countries do not match China’s, but they are significant. The Achilles’ heel is poor delivery. The new government should set up an autonomous Economic Cooperation Agency to manage these programmes. Such a proposal has been on the table for a few years now, without any action.
The Pakistan-China angle
Relations with Pakistan remain hostage to its addiction to cross-border terrorism. As long as Pakistan enjoys a strong Chinese shield and the US seeks Pakistani support for its withdrawal from Afghanistan, India’s efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally will have limited success. On the other hand, rising tensions between India and Pakistan bring back the hyphenation between the two countries and invite meddling by outside powers.
There are signs that Pakistan is uncomfortable with its heavy and almost singular dependence on China. It may be ready to balance this dependence through a measured improvement of relations with India. The opportunity of a summit with Imran Khan at the forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit may provide an opportunity to test this proposition.
India is not in a position to single-handedly check the rising Chinese power and influence. Therefore, it needs to be part of a coalition of major powers, which share India’s concerns over China. India has been cautious about its role in the “Quad”, a grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India that serves as a forum for security consultations and cooperation. The new government should embrace a more significant role for the Quad, although it must remain below the threshold of a full-fledged military alliance. Australia should be invited to the next round of Malabar Naval Exercise.
Ties with Russia & US
Deepening relations with Europe, particularly with Germany, must continue to be a priority, and Africa and Latin America will remain areas of interest for economic potential and for global reach.
During the past few years, India’s relations with Russia have weakened despite regular summit-level meetings. There may be a perception that Russia is irrevocably committed to its virtual alliance with China. But Russia’s interests in Central Asia and Eastern Europe are precisely the areas where China’s influence is expanding most visibly. This cannot but be a matter of concern for Russia.
Also read: India, Russia ties had begun to soar again even before Moscow honoured Modi
Russia also remains a crucial source of high technology weaponry and military equipment. The new government must review its Russia policy and expand engagement at all levels.
Despite Trump administration’s unpredictability, India-US relations have progressed, most visibly in defence and counter-terrorism cooperation. Modi’s challenge will be in managing the economic and trade pillar of the relationship, which has now become a contested space.
Way ahead
Indian economy has seen rapid growth due to a more open trade and investment regime. The temptation to walk back from this must be resisted because this will push India further towards the margins of the global economy, reduce its political leverage and destroy any prospect of catching up with China.
Compared to other major countries, India has an almost skeletal foreign service. To sustain foreign policy with ambitions of playing an active global role, India needs to significantly expand its foreign service corps. The MEA budget continues to be paltry despite the critical role it plays. It is imperative that sufficient resources be made available to the ministry to enable it to deliver on its critical mandate in a globalised world.
The author is a former Foreign Secretary and is currently Senior Fellow, CPR.
This is the third in a series of articles titled “Policy Challenges 2019-2024” under ThePrint-Centre for Policy Research (CPR) collaboration. A longer version of this piece is available on the CPR website at https://www.cprindia.org/. The full policy document on a range of issues addressed in this series will be available on CPR’s website from 4 June.
The sheer aggregation of a billion people gives India an important role on the world stage. Also the success we have made of constitutional democracy, overcoming such forbidding odds. However, for India’s global power and influence to go to the next level, we need to be doing much better at home, economically and in other spheres. 2. India and China are comparable in terms of population and were so in terms of per capita income till the mid 1970s. On a single diagram, plot the course of their GDP since then to get a sense of asymmetry. India’s China policy should be underpinned by a sense of realism and pragmatism.