Is NDA-II heading the same way as UPA-II? The latest Mood of the Nation survey findings published by India Today invite us to think of this tempting but false equivalence. As a nation-wide popular movement confronts the Narendra Modi-led BJP government floundering in its second term in office, it is natural to think of the disastrous second term of UPA-II under Manmohan Singh, especially after the anti-corruption movement. It is a misleading comparison though.
India Today’s poll is a good place to look for evidence. Its six-monthly ‘Mood of the Nation’ (MOTN) poll is the oldest data series of its kind in India. (The other series, the one I prefer more, the CSDS-Lokniti series on State of the Nation Survey has been interrupted again). Although its method and quality have varied over the years, I still trust India Today to report what its pollsters found. That is why I always wait for and carefully read its findings. This latest round was carried out during the last 10 days of 2019. As always, the pollsters spoke to a small but representative sample of about 12,000-plus voters across 19 states. Remember: a less-than-perfect survey is an infinitely superior source of information than drawing room gossip.
Decline in BJP popularity?
There are many indicators in MOTN survey to support the idea of a decline in the BJP’s popularity. The headline forecast shows a drop of 50 seats compared to the NDA’s tally in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It would look worse if we imagine a grand alliance of the opposition, including the Shiv Sena. The poll finds a loss of 4 percentage points in the NDA vote share, from 45 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections to 41 per cent now. Add this to the outcomes of assembly elections following the Lok Sabha polls and you have a trend line of a consistent decline in the BJP’s fortunes.
I would, however, not rush into such a happy conclusion. For one thing, I never take seat forecasts very seriously, especially when the Lok Sabha election is some years away. Voters don’t quite know their mind. And the pollsters don’t know what the nature of alliance arithmetic would eventually look like. Besides, one should not read too much into a small drop after an extraordinary peak as in the 2019 elections. In any case, the poll shows that the BJP’s loss is not the gain of its principal national opponent, the Congress. In this respect, ThePrint’s Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta’s reading of this poll is bang on.
Despite a minor drop, Prime Minister Modi’s approval rating continues to be high at 68 per cent. He continues to be way ahead of his competitors (53 per cent prefer him over 13 per cent for Rahul Gandhi) in the PM race. He can afford to shed a few points as the opposition has no half-credible face to take him on. The supreme leader’s rating is more important to assess the strength of an authoritarian regime than any projected vote share for his party.
Also read: Modi still popular but BJP would lose majority if polls were held now: India Today survey
Split on economy
The poll’s indications on India’s economy are more significant, though not as robust as I had expected. I wish the poll had asked more pointed and sharp questions on the economy.
At 32 per cent, unemployment is the top-most anxiety of the people. It has been so since the MOTN survey held in August 2016. Nothing surprising here, given the rather alarming state of unemployment in the country, especially among the educated youth. If anything, the reality of joblessness finds a mild expression in the mirror of this poll.
Farm crisis may have slipped from the headlines, but continues to feature among top concerns. While Modi did win farmers’ votes, he has not been able to wash away the impression that the farmers’ condition has deteriorated under his regime. At the same time, food inflation is beginning to hurt the consumer, though this anxiety is yet to peak.
The bad-old UPA is now seen in a fairer light for its handling of the economy. All in all, the population is almost equally divided into three: the 29 per cent believers who see no reasons to worry, the 28 per cent sceptics who fear that the economy is stagnating or regressing, and the 32 per cent agnostics who say it is growing but at a slower pace. It’s bad news for the Modi and Amit Shah regime, but not as bad as the reality of the economy warrants. The public opinion has still not crossed the tipping point.
Also read: By 2020 end, India will know if current politics is repeat of Indira Gandhi tenure of 1970s
Are majoritarian policies working?
To my mind, the most significant findings of this round of MOTN survey are about the majoritarian policies followed by the Modi government since the Lok Sabha elections.
With Amit Shah as its mascot, the NDA-II has pursued an aggressive agenda of polarisation through Kashmir, Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the nation-wide NRC. Although these policies are disastrous for our long-term national interest and India’s international standing, I feared that this would bring short-term political dividends to the BJP.
The survey shows that the BJP may have overplayed its hand. The move to scrap Article 370 gets popular approval, but not as high as the BJP may have hoped for. Similarly, those who support the CAA outnumbered those who are opposed (41 per cent to 26 per cent) to it. The same is true of the NRC (49 per cent to 26 per cent). But this is nowhere close to the polarisation the BJP had hoped to achieve.
A majority of the people (52 per cent) agree that minorities are feeling insecure. More significantly, 53 per cent agree that minorities are justified in feeling insecure. The most damning news for the regime is that more people feel that CAA-NRC is a ploy to divert peoples’ attention than otherwise (43 per cent to 32 per cent). Remember, this survey was completed before the JNU episode that may have eroded the regime’s legitimacy even further. Clearly, at least some Modi’s supporters have begun to think that he is committing excesses in this second regime. This sentiment brings authoritarian regimes down.
Also read: Modi can’t bury 2019’s challenges but can manage if Indian economy turns around in 2020
Not the beginning of the end
But this is not the beginning of the decline and fall of Narendra Modi. For one thing, the starting point of NDA victory in 2019 was much higher than the modest victory that the UPA managed in 2009. Besides, the anti-CAA-NRC-NPR movement is not the darling of the media that the Anna Hazare movement was. Above all, we must hold our horses, because the character of the Modi regime is radically different from that of the Manmohan Singh government. Whatever happens to this regime, it will never quietly preside over its own decimation as UPA-II did.
If the Singh government was characterised by policy paralysis, this one is afflicted by hyper-activism, sans a roadmap. We cannot compare this regime with the previous one because it is led by not one but two consummate political players unrestrained by norms, conventions or compunction. Their exit route cannot possibly be like the UPA’s tame surrender in 2014.
We are dealing with political animals who would turn a setback into an opportunity, who would invent crises to dodge and distract, and who would not stop at anything to retain power. Indira Gandhi’s shock defeat in 1977 is the closest parallel that we can think of. Perhaps, we need to look beyond India, to our neighbours who have fought against authoritarian regimes, to visualise an exit route for the Modi-Shah regime. No wonder, Hum Dekhenge has suddenly acquired a new currency among protesters.
The author is the national president of Swaraj India. Views are personal.
Why minorities feel insecure but for having to continue in their own ways under the garb of Secularism?
You don’t have to look far beyond their style of expression, anger & disdain on the TV channel debates.
The author probably don’t have information that Shriman Rahul Gandhi is poised to be crowned again as INC president and would surely be the PM candidate in 2024. This incident, if true, is alone sufficient to keep Modi stayed in the PMO. Shaheen Bagh like activities may create hue and cry with hyper activism of useful idiots like Kunal Kamra but would not be effective to garner additional votes particularly from communities silent on CAA-NRC-NRP. Don’t the author find it prudent to work for making the leaders of opposition come to a common platform & chalk out some effective and continuous programmes by hitting the streets rather than waiting to catch the ball. Are members of supreme family of INC ready to receive ‘Danda’ of Police, go to jails, remain hungry for hours & days, take arduous journeys across the country, shed luxury of life hitherto enjoyed by them, put for public scrutiny thier entire financial interests, properties within or outside country, shed the unfounded sense of superiority, get rid of culture of sycophancy and many more things to look as a common man. If the answer is yes, my well wishes are with them. If the author feels that the answer may be negative then even the author with all his wisdom can do nothing except waiting for the natural solution. If so then what is the need for keeping such a huge opposition on public money.
Tum jitna keechad uchaloge modi ji utna hi popular honge. We should never forget beheading of army personnel after their death, Article 370 was a can of worms for idealists and the Ram mandir verdict will create bloodshed some incompetent idiots guessed and see now Today pak is afraid of loosing Pok.
This idiot writer is indirectly asking for Modi & Shah assassination.Such people should be put behind bars.
Who is this sandeep brahmin idiot
don’t be so pessimistic please! we can be thankful that unlike some of the neighbours, we don’t (yet) have the army in the mix. if only all the opposition – political or not – can work together, fascism can still be kept at bay.
People educated beyond their intelligence are intellectuals. It is sad that someone as astute as Yogendra ji has started sounding like an intellectual !
you sound like a stalinist. not your name but your statement.
The second most important leader has already promised uninterrupted 50year rule. You must take his words seriously. Expect atleast one magic trick in every election cycle.
It is bit too premature to count votes for 2024 general elections. The concerns for downturn in the economy are genuine and widespread, this is the message to be received from the India Today poll. I still hold the view the turmoil on account of 370 or CAA is transient and will die down eventually. The government has four years to go and enjoys absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. There is not even a hint of rebellion within the ruling party. How then, the government will fall?.Yes, the government must do a rethink on CAA. However, I wonder what harm can it do if it is not accompanied with NRC? All it will do is to grant citizenship to non-Muslim immigrants; it will not, I repeat NOT, take away citizenship of any Muslim citizen of India and/or deport any Muslim person not having proper documents. NRC is a dangerous exercise and should be opposed tooth and nail. But CAA in isolation looks quite benign. If the government doesn’t do any stupid, obnoxious action, the turmoil is going to die down in due course.
Very good improvement Yogendra ,you want to take the help of neighbouring countries to throw out a democratically elected government. Wah wah
We have the intelligence to understand he did not mean that. He meant what happened in neighbouring countries .
He is a member of break india forces.
Just be glad he doesn’t want neighboring countries to take over India. Yet.
That is not what he said AT ALL. why are bhakts so dim or do they only pretend?
Whoa! Where did that come from? You have misunderstood the last comment in this article. He is simply saying that this regime will not have a similar ending as that of the UPA 2 regime instead it will probably follow the Indira govt. route or one of the other authoritarian govt.’s example. He is neither going to throw out any govt. nor is he going to take help from any other country.