As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on his second term in office, one thing is very clear. Nothing is what it seems and nobody can take anything for granted. Not even Amit Shah.
Modi is the master puppeteer, pulling the strings not from far behind. He is both willing and capable of upsetting the apple-cart, demolishing the status quo and spoiling your carefully laid-out plans – choose your cliché and it will be true.
This government is only a week-old and the first changes have already been made. If home minister Amit Shah, by being a member of all the cabinet committees reconstituted so far – security, appointments, parliamentary affairs, accommodation, political affairs and economic affairs – was being spoken of as Modi’s No. 2, because defence minister Rajnath Singh had been left out of most of them, by Thursday night that impression had been dispelled. Rajnath Singh was made a member of four of the six committees, save the ones on appointments and accommodation.
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Shah may still be Number Two, Modi’s closest confidante and adviser. But to allow that impression to travel is clearly risky.
Similarly, Piyush Goyal may have hoped for the most powerful ministry in the government, finance –which is natural, considering he delivered the Budget in 2018 – but Modi was clearly having none of it. Goyal was allocated commerce, while an Arun Jaitley protege and the one of the few with an economics background in this government, Nirmala Sitharaman, made the cut. Jaitley may be out due to his ill-health, but his influence remains.
As for the technocrats who will run Modi’s foreign policy – external affairs minister S. Jaishankar and national security adviser Ajit Doval – Modi likes the fact that he will be given expert advice on an area of priority, which is to expand India’s presence abroad, by two people who have no political ambitions.
Doval and Jaishankar are both cabinet ministers so they are equal. Both have five-year terms, although Doval turns 75 in January 2020, so they are equal on that front as well.
They are also nicely matched: Doval will continue to be the PM’s Special Representative on the India-China border talks, as well as remain the head of the Strategic Policy Group – he displaced the cabinet secretary as the head of this group last October – as well as the head of the Defence Planning Committee, a super-committee created in April 2018.
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Doval is also likely accompanying Modi to Sri Lanka over the weekend, while Jaishankar heads off to Bhutan. Remember that Modi won the recent election on the back of the Balakot strikes, which Doval would have planned to the last, minute detail. We know that Doval and his men negotiated for the return of captured pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. The NSA remains close to Modi.
The moral of the story can be encapsulated in one word: Balance. Modi, as he pulls the puppets on his strings, will maintain this up-down movement as is his wont, intending to keep all his mantris on their toes. That way no one can get bigger or better than their shoes.
There’s only one man on top – the pilgrim in Kedarnath, the model for the animated yoga series that is back on @narendramodi these days (check out the vrikhsasana, trikonasana and tadasana) or the best wisher for Team India this World Cup – and his name is Narendra Damodardas Modi.
As he sets about shaping his second term, the PM must realise his two biggest challenges on hand. Fixing the economy at home and leveraging this to enhance India’s standing abroad.
The Chinese can be held off at Doklam, but they are far more likely to respect economic strength. Similarly, US president Donald Trump’s trademan instincts have forced him to enter into a micro-mini trade war with India that is threatening to damage the relationship. No wonder, Jaishankar has been spending quality time with Goyal and Sitharaman.
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Modi also realises that if India has to become a regional power, he has to first fix the neighbourhood. It’s all very well to invite leaders from the Bay of Bengal region to your swearing-in ceremony, and then follow that up with visits to Sri Lanka and the Maldives, but what do you do with Pakistan, the country that threatens to block your rise and rise to great power status?
Either you gnash your teeth or you set about doing things with a cool head. Certainly, Modi would return to talks with Imran Khan in a trice – but how would he sell those talks to the RSS as well as various BJP karyakartas and supporters who have been fed on an anti-Pakistan diet for some time?
That is why a possible meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan in Bishkek on 13-14 June on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is of huge interest. The process of returning to a photo-op with a Pakistani PM is certainly as important as the content of their conversation.
MEA spokesperson Raveesh Kumar carefully caveated his remarks on the meeting Wednesday, saying “to the best of my knowledge,” there is no such meeting. This wonderful phrase neither confirms nor denies what, if anything, is going on between the two countries this week.
Modi government’s decision on Pakistan this coming week will, in a sense, define the remainder of his five years in office.
Will the PM take a leaf out of his predecessor Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s book, and open up a dialogue with a country which deeply damages India’s national interest, but isn’t going anywhere anytime soon?
Or, will he blow up this opportunity by waiting for a more perfect time when cross-border terrorism comes to an end?
The future awaits India’s prime minister.