Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ongoing visits to France and UAE are thank you calls to President Emmanuel Macron and President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan for standing by India and not allowing the Kashmir story to become internationalised – at least so far.
So, Modi flew all the way to Paris over Wednesday-Thursday for a mere 18 hours to hear Macron tell the world that Kashmir was a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan – even as Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s told the New York Times that he isn’t interested in any more conversations with India, that means he fell right into Modi’s trap.
Flying out
Modi is currently in Abu Dhabi for his third visit, where he will receive the Order of Zayed award. UAE was not only the first Arab country to declare the abrogation of Article 370 an internal matter of India, but the Sheikh’s close friendship with Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is likely to help tell the rest of the Arab world to zip their mouths on the Kashmir question – at least for the time being.
Modi is leading the charge on Kashmir – he flies back to France on 25 August to meet his G-7 partners, including Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and perhaps, Angela Merkel – while external affairs minister S. Jaishankar used his travels in the neighbourhood to tell Bangladesh and Nepal that they should stay away from Kashmir. (They agreed.)
Also read: This is why PM Modi doesn’t really care about internationalisation of Kashmir issue
Handling things back home
Modi’s other message to the international community is equally important: Don’t set too much store with the Congress-led opposition in India, they are going to jail, one at a time. Even the smartest and brightest of them all, the former finance-home minister P. Chidambaram, has feet of clay.
So, as the Congress party flails at home, the Modi-Amit Shah duo is consolidating power at home and abroad. The CBI is expanding the ambit of its charges against Chidambaram to include the alleged corruption around the Aircel-Maxis investment, while the BJP’s clear message to the opposition is that “since you can’t fight us, join us.” As many as 101 opposition members across the political spectrum have done exactly that since Modi took over in his second term.
But Modi also realises that he is walking a fine line on Kashmir and it is up to him to prevent it from becoming a big screaming story in newspapers abroad. So, no foreign journalists are being allowed to go to Kashmir anymore; it was always difficult for the foreign press to get permission anyway, but this has now completely stopped.
More importantly, Modi knows it will be difficult to flaunt the “world’s largest democracy” tag, that democracies will be weighed by different standards than dictatorships if the situation in Kashmir isn’t eased sooner than later. Which is what J&K chief secretary B.V.R. Subrahmanyam and his team are now focusing on doing.
That’s because couched in all the statements of support by the big powers is this line: Kashmir is a bilateral issue to be resolved between India and Pakistan, in accordance with the wishes of the people.
Also read: Imran Khan was right. Modi did resolve the Kashmir issue once and for all: Reham Khan
Modi also knows that opinion is divided over the presidential order abrogating Article 370 and dissolving Jammu and Kashmir to transform it into a Union Territory – even if Amit Shah successfully argued that Parliament was fully equipped to speak for the people of J&K during President’s Rule – and that several petitions are in the offing in the Supreme Court.
Then there is the matter of politicians being under house arrest. When will they be released? Do they speak for the people of J&K even when the assembly is in suspended animation? Do they represent the “wishes of the people” of J&K? And if they do, how can they do that if they are under house arrest?
Modi must keep in mind that Macron also said that France will be attentive to human rights in Kashmir.
That’s why the two-pronged Modi strategy to disarm the international community with a variety of carrots (buy 36 Rafale jets from the French and perhaps a few more) and sticks, in conjunction with attempting to ease the curfew in J&K is so important.
That’s also why the phrase, “in accordance with the wishes of the people”, remains key and even Macron has no option but to use it with Modi – “the people’s rights should be protected”, he said, as he balanced his comments, adding that no third party should incite violence in the region.
Also read: What separates Modi’s NDA from Manmohan Singh’s UPA – Chidambaram’s arrest
Complete control of levers
Meanwhile, the US and the UK are on the same page, notwithstanding Donald Trump’s many statements in as many days, and so are the other non-permanent members of the UN Security Council these days, like Germany.
Modi will surely win the West’s heart on the Kashmir issue – but he hasn’t won it yet. That’s probably why he took a break in the UAE for a day or two; it’s always nice to be celebrated by rulers happy to give up Dawood Ibrahim aide Farooq Takla as well as economic offenders like Deepak Talwar and Christian Michel, the latter in exchange for the Dubai princess who fled to India last year.
Meanwhile, as he flies back to Biarritz, France, to participate in the G-7 meetings as an observer, the CBI and Enforcement Directorate will rub Chidambaram’s nose in the ground.
This week is proof, if proof was needed, that Modi’s control over the levers of power is almost complete.