Three Covid-induced lockdowns that broke the back of the Indian economy and put lakhs of migrants from Uttar Pradesh’s hinterlands under severe financial stress have, it seems, failed to disenchant the rural voter who is still enamored by the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They are saying they would prefer him at the national level — ‘Modi ji desh ke liye thik hai, kendra ke chunav me vote unhi ko denge’ (Modi ji is good for the nation, we will vote for him in the parliamentary election). They may not be happy with chief minister Yogi Aadityanath’s performance in the state and may choose Akhilesh Yadav’s cycle but, nationally, Modi it is for them despite pinching inflation and unemployment.
Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav is trying hard to wage his electoral battle against ‘image Yogi’ and not ‘image Modi’. But Modi, through his aggressive campaign, is helping BJP dilute the anti-incumbency of its “double engine sarkar”. It’s true that the heat of opposition attack on the BJP around issues such as the farm laws, demonetisation and Covid crisis goes against the central government, but Modi continues to matter a lot in rural UP.
Villagers from the Sirathu constituency near Allahabad say: ‘kuchh galati kiya to kuchh achha bhi kiye; yeh to raj-kaj me hota hi rahata hai, lekin hum log Modiji ko hi vote denge (he committed some mistakes but also did some good things; it happens when someone runs a government. But we will vote for Modi).’ When a member of our research team countered saying, “ye Modi ka chunav nahi hai (this is not the election of electing Modi)”, one of the villagers said, “tab to Akhilesh ko denge (then I will vote for Akhilesh). Shows what brand Modi is in Uttar Pradesh.
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Why is Modi’s image still strong?
Political observers may link the PM’s popularity to his power to communicate with people, or his government’s pro-poor schemes, or his push to Hindutva. We asked the same question to people across various villages in eastern UP. And most people had similar answers: ‘un par vishwas hai (we have trust in him)’. So how did this trust capital evolve and stay even after seven years of his government? We pressed these respondents to give us specific reasons for their continued trust. Most of them said: ‘wo (Modi) jo kahate hain wo karate hain (he does what he says).
One can interpret this statement in the context of abolition of Article 370, beginning of work on Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, which a Hindu mind likes. The middle-class may have its own reasons, like Modi’s “rashtrahitkari, corruption-free government”. But the rural population admires Modi government for suraksha and rashan. Suraksha (security) to them means a fear-free atmosphere without powerful criminals of certain dominant communities and local mafias of other non-Hindu religious communities. In a poor hamlet of Kaushambi district inhabited by a marginalised community, people told us that they get ration twice every month — one sent by Modi, other by Yogi. So, in the mind of the rural poor, image Modi also circulates through these social welfare schemes. It is true that they aspire more from the government but while evaluating Modi, many, including his critics, also become a bit soft.
A large section of rural voters also remembers the ‘Modi-Yogi image’ together while admiring and criticising the BJP-led “double-engine Sarkar” at the same time. But Modi’s image has no caste in UP. It is being received, admired or criticised beyond caste in society. It is true that the BJP as a party has it’s voter base in specific caste groups but Modi’s image goes beyond. During our interactions, no one brought up Modi’s caste and one may find his admirers in almost all the castes. But appreciation of the image of a leader, not always translate into votes. We need to see how this brand Modi works in the central and eastern UP for the BJP.
The author is Professor and Director at the G.B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad. He tweets @poetbadri. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)