RIP Narendra Kumar, Moreh, 29 May, and Ranjit Yadav, Serou, 6 June 2023. And the dozens of others who lost their lives in the Manipur violence that started in May 2023.
Remember the names, dates, and places of supreme sacrifice of these two particular soldiers. Their deaths will stand out as turning points when the history of Manipur violence is recounted in future. These two soldiers were not native to Manipur — they were mayang, which means ‘outsider’ in Meitei. This small detail aside, they were active soldiers in the Border Security Force (BSF).
Given India’s security challenges, soldiers die with greater frequency than what is warranted. Kumar and Yadav will be reduced to yet another statistic, a marker on an insensitive North Block graph. Sometime in the future, when analysts comb through the debris left behind by the current mayhem, they will see that these two died in the most unusual of circumstances for an internal law and order situation.
Both died of a single shot — Kumar in the head, Yadav in the neck. But what is significant is that they were shot at a considerable distance, far enough to notice the firing easily. Most firing occurs at a distance of 300-400 yards, a military officer in Manipur told The Indian Express.
A quick analysis of those two shots would also reveal that a fairly effective rifle was used — and it wasn’t an AK-47. Moreover, the shooters must be considerably skilled at handling a rifle, the firing prowess built over a duration of time longer than what the loot of weapons in early May afforded.
These two killings make the scale of the threat facing India all too apparent.
Also read: In Manipur, police armouries stand empty. Mobs stormed them, looted weapons, ‘rode off on scooters’
Look beyond J&K
BSF headquarters would hopefully have conducted a forensic check on the bullet wounds suffered by Kumar and Yadav. It would reveal the calibre of weapons used in both incidents, which could be used to tally with the looted ones. An outcome could well be more worrisome, and hopefully not pushed under the dusty carpet of evasion. Juxtaposed to this observation is a stark military fact — most trained infantry soldiers would not be able to bring down their target with a single shot at that range in operational mode. VIP show-firing is another matter.
The number of weapons now in unauthorised hands in Manipur is many times over than in Kashmir. Even as India remains obsessed with the much-fussed northern territory, the greatest security challenge is, undoubtedly, Manipur and its collapse into such a permanent space of conflict. For starters, no state anywhere has allowed such a large-scale loot of weapons.
Jammu and Kashmir, the benchmark for counter-insurgency for most Indians, did not witness such incidents where police armouries are emptied, even during its worst period in the 1990s. Manipur police allowed this loot as did the state government.
It is also important to highlight the displacement of people in Manipur and compare it on a national scale to bring out the extent of the tragedy. The official number of displaced is 50,698, which, in a back-of-the-envelope calculation, means 1.47 per cent of the current estimated population of Manipur. This percentage on a national level would imply 2,08,72,043 people (in accordance with the current population estimates). The staggering reality of this tragedy is that it didn’t happen overnight — not due to any one flag march or court order. It had been years in the making.
Also read: Police commandos, militants driving Kuki-Meitei violence? In Manipur, accusations fly
Delhi doesn’t know it all
India, generally, and North Block, specifically, is legendary in its ignorance of the Northeast. It has always acted on inherited or developed assumptions that have no sociological basis. It believes that the ‘one size fits all’ formula is applicable to these states too when it isn’t, and the Northeast has made that obvious time and again. But New Delhi’s arrogant know-it-all attitude blinds decision-makers. Sending Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma as peacemaker to Manipur is evidence of this ignorance — Manipur fled Assam’s patronising grip long ago.
The vast network of spooks would have picked up the undercurrents of what was brewing in Manipur long before the fires began to rage. The decayed state that opened its armouries to looters reached that stage of atrophy over a considerable period of time. The convulsions of this decomposition would have been apparent to any keen-eyed spook posted in the state. If they didn’t pick up these signals on the radar, it is simply a dereliction of duty. That operative was clearly not up to the mark and must be made answerable.
“The seeds of some of the future problems of the northeast were fatefully sown in the events leading up to the 1980 general elections, and the tragic harvest we have reaped since then was in many cases foreseen by young officers. I had a ringside view of these developments as they unfolded in parts of Manipur…There is thus an understated but patronising approach that leads to a loss of valuable insights and perspective, resulting in flawed analysis of root causes…Stressing only on one or two factors will lead to a partial view of what is a complex reality,” former civil servant C Balagopal wrote in his wonderful book On a Clear Day, You Can See India, a title that should prick the conscience. New Delhi, obviously, can’t see Manipur even on a clear day.
Manvendra Singh is a Congress leader, Editor-in-Chief of Defence & Security Alert and Chairman, Soldier Welfare Advisory Committee, Rajasthan. He tweets @ManvendraJasol. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)